Charlie Kirk Today

Jonathan Keeperman: April 9, 2026 | Charlie Kirk Today

April 9, 2026 | 23:29

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Charlie Kirk Today | Jonathan Keeperman: April 9, 2026 | Charlie Kirk Today | April 9, 2026

So a peace deal
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Was reached about 90 minutes before the 8 p.m.
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Eastern deadline
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That president trump had set, where he was going to have
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The famous truth now.
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But end a civilization.
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I personally didn't think that that ever meant nuclear
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Weapons. we talked about that on the show yesterday.
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Nevertheless, it got through the message, got through.
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There was actually an interesting
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Tweet by, a friend of the show.
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Well, chamberlain,
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Who basically said
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Thank you to all of the people that were assuming the worst
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Because it actually may have helped, convince iran
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To come to the peace, table, the peace negotiation table.
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There was obviously intermediation
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Going on on behalf of pakistan and the prime minister there,
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But i think it's important also to note that china
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Played a huge role in this.
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China, exerted,
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Force at the last minute on behalf of
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I think by by way of the prime minister of pakistan,
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I think it's
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Safe to say
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China is probably
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One of the beneficiaries of the cut rate oil
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That iran was pumping out into the marketplace.
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So china wanted this deal to get done,
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Probably also because china has an interest in the long
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Term stability of the existing regime,
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Or the framework that still exists, and other reasons.
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So watch china in all of this.
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I just want i want to make that very clear.
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That was reported by the new york times
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That china played a huge role at the end there.
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So we have this ten point plan.
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The white house is reporting that it is a different
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Ten point plan than the one that we have been previously.
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Seen.
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So we have to lead to a ten point plan.
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No, we have allegedly a cease fire to negotiate
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Based off of our 13 point plan and their ten point plan
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That is allegedly different than the one
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They'd given us before. yes.
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So what is also interesting here is what happens
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To the strait of hormuz.
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Okay, so previously leaked oil
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Tankers were able to navigate the strait freely.
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That was what was the previous status quo.
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Now it looks like what could be the case is that
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There will be tolls
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Exacted upon tankers that go through the strait.
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President trump
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Has told jonathan karl
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That that could be more of a joint venture.
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That sounds like something he'd get on board.
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It does sound like something he'd get on board with iran.
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Let's team up to do tariffs.
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Yeah. tariffs.
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So why this is noteworthy is again the previous status quo
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You go through freely.
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Now you got to pay a toll.
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Maybe it's a joint venture u.s.
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And iran partnering in that.
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Maybe iran just charges them unilaterally.
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We're not sure how this is going to shake out.
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But it is a massive new precedent to be set.
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It means there could be tolls exacted on straits and canals
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All through the world if this ends up taking place.
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So that's something that we need to keep a look out
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For in the future.
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It's relatively nominal, and if you get peace
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And you get the strait back opened
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And you get tolls,
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I suppose that's a deal
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A lot of people would probably be willing to make.
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All right.
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Well, where we're at now, though,
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But the big problem now is we say this there is a ceasefire.
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It is time to last for two weeks while they negotiate.
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But as we said, it might not last
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Till the end of this program
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Because it's not 100% clear if it's going on right now.
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Well, this is there are still a lot of reports of explosions,
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Missiles being fired at israel, at kuwait, at other targets.
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And then this is also a big one.
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There is a disagreement over the scope of the cease fire.
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In addition to the air campaign and missile campaign
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Against iran and in the gulf,
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There's also been an israeli ground operation and bombing
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Operation in lebanon, in fact, that i believe has killed
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More people than the iran missile exchanges.
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And iran and pakistan claim
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That that part of the conflict is covered by this cease fire.
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But israel claims it's not.
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And now just breaking in the last few minutes,
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The united states says it's not.
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And that's a pretty big point of disagreement.
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Well, and why this matters is because now
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Iran is reportedly threatening tankers
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That are trying to navigate the strait.
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So the strait is, for all intents
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And purposes, once again closed.
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And now a few tankers,
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I believe, got through earlier, but it is now halted.
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Those that movement has been halted
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Because they are claiming israel has violated
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The terms of the cease fire, cease fire.
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But we just don't know
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If hezbollah in southern lebanon was included at all.
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So there's disagreements on that.
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We've got a lot to unpack here.
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There's,
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I think,
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A really important press conference
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That's going to be had at 1 p.m.
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Caroline leavitt white house press conference.
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So we are going to be throwing
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To that live later in the hour.
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Two, because there's a lot of details that remain unclear.
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What are the details of the new ten point plan?
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How much does it reflect
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The previously reported ten point plan?
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What's going to happen with the strait of hormuz?
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Are we really seriously
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Looking at charging tariffs and tolls to navigate the strait?
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There's a lot to unpack here,
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But i think most importantly, this is what's going to happen.
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And blake and i were talking about this
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Right before the show started.
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Everybody's going to declare victory, right?
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So we're seeing reports
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That they are waving iranian flags in tehran
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And that they are claiming victory.
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Pete hegseth gave a press conference
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This morning claiming victory with a capital v.
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Sometimes in war,
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There is not really a clear victory.
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And i think that's one of the this is one of those instances.
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Would iran have preferred to not been bombed
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And have 80 to 90% of their military apparatus
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Destroyed, their manufacturing apparatus destroyed,
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Of course.
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But would it could you make the argument
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That this was a bit
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Of a pyrrhic victory on behalf of the united states,
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In the sense that, yes, we had air support,
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Have the air superiority.
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We decimated much of their military industrial complex.
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But the strait was open before, and now that remains
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In question.
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And if we remove sanctions on iranian oil
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And other energy and other products
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That they make from its petroleum,
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Will iran emerge stronger in the wake of this?
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And that's a huge potential here.
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I spoke with, a friend of mine who's good
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On foreign policy stuff, and he says the likely long
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Term goal here, probably
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To get a permanent peace deal, might have to be
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You would agree, which iran has been fighting for,
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For basically the ideal deal we could make
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Is they actually do back off from their nuclear deal.
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But in return we do fully regularize
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Our relationship with them, which means
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You remove sanctions, you normalize trade, and yeah,
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You let them toll the strait.
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They're saying it might be $1 per barrel for oil
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Going through it. so that's not massive.
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That's about you maybe like a 3 or 4%
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Tax tariff on all oil going out.
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But i think you have to say we said at the outset
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The best way to sell this war is
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If it is the last war the us fights in the middle east,
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And the only way that's going to happen
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Is if we have a government in iran, we can treat
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As a normal country well, and there does remain so.
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And we want to get into this. in the next segment.
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There was a massive report
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Out of the new york times by two relatively
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Trustworthy reporters.
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And we could some of it could be fake news.
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It's apparent to me that the story has been worked
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By those mentioned in it, but that's maggie
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Haberman and jonathan swan of the new york times.
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They have a really a, breathtaking
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Exposé of how this war got underway.
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And we're going to break that down for you
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And explain what that means moving forward.
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And explain what that means moving forward.
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Okay, i want to get into this new york times exposed,
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Because everybody that i know was sending me this thing
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Yesterday, it was going all around, basically.
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And blake, fill in the fill in the gaps that i miss here.
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It explains that bibi netanyahu, in an extraordinary
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Moment, was essentially presented his case
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In the intel behind his pitch to attack iran.
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And he did it in the situation room.
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He did it in the situation room before.
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Obviously, all this happened in february,
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Which, as far as i'm aware, is the first time
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A leader of a foreign government had done something
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Like that.
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Inside the situation room, gathered around the table was
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Obviously president trump, his chief of staff susie wiles,
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Pete hegseth, marco rubio, jd vance apparently
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Couldn't make it back in time for this initial meeting.
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Who else am i missing?
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John radcliffe from the cia, raising cain joint chiefs. so
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It was an extraordinarily small meeting,
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But with all the firepower in the us military,
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With bibi netanyahu
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Doing a pitch
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In the situation room and the he presented four points,
00:09:00.865 --> 00:09:03.935
Basically, that he thought that they could
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Do a decapitation move, take out the leadership,
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That they could essentially wipe out the military of iran
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Really successfully.
00:09:13.444 --> 00:09:14.278
But then points three and four
00:09:14.278 --> 00:09:16.314
Were were more controversial, basically.
00:09:16.314 --> 00:09:18.850
And blake, i don't know if you want to
00:09:18.850 --> 00:09:20.251
Equally claim it was a four point plan.
00:09:20.251 --> 00:09:22.253
It was take. yeah.
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As you said, take out the ayatollah,
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Take out the military.
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But then he had this bolder claim that they would be able
00:09:25.223 --> 00:09:28.292
To launch uprisings
00:09:28.292 --> 00:09:29.427
Within iran, either
00:09:29.427 --> 00:09:30.828
Invasions by kurds or just dissidents within the country.
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And then point for there would be a full regime
00:09:33.598 --> 00:09:36.000
Change to a secular leader who would be pro-western
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And friendly to the united states.
00:09:39.537 --> 00:09:41.039
This is where it gets really interesting.
00:09:41.039 --> 00:09:44.242
So gathered around that table, were the characters
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I just mentioned.
00:09:47.845 --> 00:09:48.479
They meet afterwards,
00:09:48.479 --> 00:09:49.814
Then jd vance makes it back, gets a briefing.
00:09:49.814 --> 00:09:52.250
Now he's part of this discussion and essentially
00:09:52.250 --> 00:09:57.121
John ratcliffe, marco rubio
00:09:57.722 --> 00:10:00.324
And jd vance all called b.s.
00:10:00.324 --> 00:10:03.127
On points three and four and raising cain
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Made an observation that i think is
00:10:06.164 --> 00:10:08.933
One of those things that is going to linger
00:10:08.933 --> 00:10:11.335
In our collective consciousness for a long time, he said.
00:10:11.335 --> 00:10:13.871
The israelis tend to oversell and under deliver.
00:10:13.871 --> 00:10:18.209
Their intel is inflated.
00:10:18.209 --> 00:10:20.545
So what happened is they go around the table again,
00:10:20.545 --> 00:10:24.148
They meet, i think basically within that week,
00:10:24.148 --> 00:10:27.752
Jd vance says, you know what i think, sir?
00:10:27.752 --> 00:10:29.987
President trump asked for his opinion.
00:10:29.987 --> 00:10:31.422
Jd vance says, you know what i think, sir? it's a bad idea.
00:10:31.422 --> 00:10:33.624
But if you do it, i'll support you
00:10:33.624 --> 00:10:35.226
For a number of reasons.
00:10:35.760 --> 00:10:37.795
Marco rubio says if you want to go in for points
00:10:37.795 --> 00:10:40.031
One and two, then i think you should do it.
00:10:40.031 --> 00:10:42.300
But if you think three and four are going to happen,
00:10:42.300 --> 00:10:44.302
You shouldn't,
00:10:44.302 --> 00:10:45.503
Because he called it b.s., but he used the real work board.
00:10:45.503 --> 00:10:48.473
Raising cain is sort of described
00:10:48.473 --> 00:10:49.974
As this guy who's not offering his opinions necessarily
00:10:49.974 --> 00:10:52.677
On whether he thinks it's right or wrong,
00:10:52.677 --> 00:10:54.045
But he's gives the details
00:10:54.045 --> 00:10:56.114
Of the question the president asks.
00:10:56.114 --> 00:10:58.182
And i think there's some reticence there, suzy, why?
00:10:58.182 --> 00:11:01.052
I said, you know, basically subscribe.
00:11:01.052 --> 00:11:03.688
So it's not. yeah.
00:11:03.688 --> 00:11:05.056
What stands out here if you read it is at least in
00:11:05.056 --> 00:11:08.693
This report
00:11:09.026 --> 00:11:10.094
By the new york times, which is presumably based on
00:11:10.094 --> 00:11:12.530
All the people,
00:11:12.530 --> 00:11:13.164
A bunch of the people involved
00:11:13.164 --> 00:11:14.365
In these conversations, talking to the new york times
00:11:14.365 --> 00:11:16.868
Or their staff, talking to the new york times.
00:11:16.868 --> 00:11:19.270
No one is really willing to take ownership
00:11:19.270 --> 00:11:22.173
For launching the war other than the president himself.
00:11:22.173 --> 00:11:25.309
The narrative told in this story is almost everyone around
00:11:25.309 --> 00:11:28.746
The president is skeptical,
00:11:28.746 --> 00:11:30.414
But the president wants to go for it, right?
00:11:30.414 --> 00:11:32.583
That is the story they tell.
00:11:32.583 --> 00:11:33.751
So it's obvious to me that the story has been worked,
00:11:33.751 --> 00:11:38.122
But we have not seen much
00:11:38.122 --> 00:11:39.924
Pushback from the administration saying
00:11:39.924 --> 00:11:41.459
It's not true.
00:11:41.459 --> 00:11:42.727
We haven't seen pushback from the staff saying it's not true.
00:11:42.727 --> 00:11:44.495
We haven't even seen, as far as i am
00:11:44.495 --> 00:11:47.198
Aware, any pushback from the israelis.
00:11:47.198 --> 00:11:50.101
So the
00:11:50.101 --> 00:11:51.302
I would say the basic structure of this agreement is true,
00:11:51.302 --> 00:11:53.938
And it reflects other things that i sort of heard privately
00:11:53.938 --> 00:11:56.841
About
00:11:56.841 --> 00:11:58.042
Who was rushing in or who wasn't rushing into this thing.
00:11:58.042 --> 00:12:01.045
I think the takeaway for me are it's a couple things,
00:12:01.045 --> 00:12:04.515
But namely, there's been a lot of debate
00:12:04.515 --> 00:12:07.285
Whether or not president trump
00:12:07.285 --> 00:12:08.953
Got quote unquote, dog walked into this war.
00:12:08.953 --> 00:12:12.089
Mike, conclusion based on this report
00:12:12.089 --> 00:12:14.258
And this exposé,
00:12:14.258 --> 00:12:15.126
Plus all of the footage that we've seen
00:12:15.126 --> 00:12:16.961
Of president trump throughout the years, is that.
00:12:16.961 --> 00:12:18.830
No, i think maybe there was confirmation bias.
00:12:18.830 --> 00:12:22.934
You could make that argument.
00:12:22.934 --> 00:12:24.235
But president trump seems to have basically
00:12:24.235 --> 00:12:27.205
Made the decision that he wanted to do this.
00:12:27.205 --> 00:12:29.473
He's wanted to hit iran for a long time.
00:12:29.473 --> 00:12:31.776
And i will say this.
00:12:31.776 --> 00:12:32.877
This is my last point, and i'll get your take.
00:12:32.877 --> 00:12:34.412
Blake, do not underestimate the significance
00:12:34.412 --> 00:12:39.884
Of iran attempting to assassinate president trump,
00:12:39.884 --> 00:12:42.820
Whether they actually
00:12:42.820 --> 00:12:44.055
Did attempt it or signaled their intention to do it,
00:12:44.055 --> 00:12:47.391
That will leave a incredible,
00:12:48.025 --> 00:12:50.094
Indelible imprint on anybody's psyche.
00:12:50.094 --> 00:12:53.364
And i think you take that back to the fact that,
00:12:53.364 --> 00:12:55.900
The older americans remember
00:12:55.900 --> 00:12:59.837
Being insulted by iran, the iranian hostage crisis
00:12:59.837 --> 00:13:03.174
And the like,
00:13:03.174 --> 00:13:04.709
And it's been a thorn in the side
00:13:04.709 --> 00:13:06.444
Of the united states
00:13:06.444 --> 00:13:07.411
For long enough that i think president trump
00:13:07.411 --> 00:13:08.846
Was the man who wanted to make a decision
00:13:08.846 --> 00:13:10.715
Where as you get younger
00:13:10.715 --> 00:13:11.883
Generations like jd marco, they were less enthusiastic.
00:13:11.883 --> 00:13:15.219
Blake, your take.
00:13:15.653 --> 00:13:16.520
I think that's very possible.
00:13:16.520 --> 00:13:17.955
And you want to be careful with that.
00:13:17.955 --> 00:13:20.191
I'm taken back to when we overthrew saddam hussein,
00:13:20.191 --> 00:13:24.495
Which a lot of the argument from the left was bush
00:13:24.495 --> 00:13:27.698
Did this essentially for sentimental reasons,
00:13:27.698 --> 00:13:29.934
That his dad hadn't taken out saddam,
00:13:29.934 --> 00:13:32.303
And that was why he lost reelection
00:13:32.303 --> 00:13:34.305
And he had to go back and finish the job.
00:13:34.305 --> 00:13:37.174
There was a lot of there was a big lobby to overthrow saddam
00:13:37.174 --> 00:13:41.178
Well before 9/11 happened, like 9/11 essentially
00:13:41.178 --> 00:13:44.448
Just offered the excuse to do it.
00:13:44.448 --> 00:13:47.151
And if you're correct, that's kind of the feeling i get.
00:13:47.151 --> 00:13:50.321
Here you are.
00:13:50.321 --> 00:13:51.555
The president has thought about iran for literally decades.
00:13:51.555 --> 00:13:55.459
He does remember the hostage crisis.
00:13:55.459 --> 00:13:57.261
Those are things that would all motivate him. but
00:13:57.261 --> 00:14:00.298
That's not necessarily the
00:14:00.865 --> 00:14:02.099
Best reason to launch a war which was really expensive
00:14:02.099 --> 00:14:05.069
And risky.
00:14:05.069 --> 00:14:06.137
And i think there's a couple other takeaways here.
00:14:06.137 --> 00:14:09.307
I do think there is a possibility here
00:14:09.307 --> 00:14:11.609
With after venezuela, maybe there was a sense
00:14:11.609 --> 00:14:15.279
That this would be a greater risk,
00:14:15.279 --> 00:14:16.747
But the glory would be
00:14:16.747 --> 00:14:17.848
Even greater as well,
00:14:17.848 --> 00:14:19.116
And that we could get in and get out quickly.
00:14:19.116 --> 00:14:21.686
I think other people like jd vance, marco rubio, ratcliffe
00:14:21.686 --> 00:14:25.256
Had a little bit more hesitancy because this is the line.
00:14:25.256 --> 00:14:28.726
This is a line that's worth emphasizing.
00:14:28.726 --> 00:14:30.394
It also reports in the same article
00:14:30.394 --> 00:14:32.063
That he called tucker carlson
00:14:32.063 --> 00:14:33.531
And he said it's going to be okay.
00:14:33.531 --> 00:14:36.067
Tucker asked why, and he says, because it always is.
00:14:36.067 --> 00:14:39.003
Talks in islamabad begin on friday.
00:14:39.770 --> 00:14:42.673
We'll see how those go.
00:14:42.673 --> 00:14:43.975
Jonathan cooperman joins us next.
00:14:43.975 --> 00:14:49.003
Jonathan cooperman joins us next.
00:14:49.003 --> 00:14:54.687
One of these, folks out in
00:14:55.254 --> 00:14:56.923
Our movement that i would love to
00:14:56.923 --> 00:14:58.324
Have a barbecue with is jonathan cooperman.
00:14:58.324 --> 00:15:00.460
You might know him as lomas.
00:15:00.460 --> 00:15:02.862
He is a sage of wisdom and advice
00:15:02.862 --> 00:15:06.799
And just good insight,
00:15:06.799 --> 00:15:08.334
And we want to have him on, because so much has been made
00:15:08.334 --> 00:15:11.037
About the maga fracturing over the conflict in iran in.
00:15:11.037 --> 00:15:15.341
We're not through it yet.
00:15:15.341 --> 00:15:16.342
We're not through the strait of hormuz yet.
00:15:16.342 --> 00:15:18.111
We're not through this yet, i don't think.
00:15:18.111 --> 00:15:19.979
So, jonathan, welcome back to the show.
00:15:19.979 --> 00:15:21.581
It's so good to have you, man.
00:15:21.581 --> 00:15:23.249
Blake and andrew, it's great to be here.
00:15:23.249 --> 00:15:25.151
I appreciate the praise.
00:15:25.151 --> 00:15:26.285
I always love hearing that from you guys.
00:15:26.285 --> 00:15:27.887
So i could get used to hearing that every day.
00:15:27.887 --> 00:15:29.489
I try to, you know, it's it's kind of bring you back on.
00:15:29.489 --> 00:15:32.425
So we've got a visual here running from left to right,
00:15:32.425 --> 00:15:35.061
Like no hair, medium hair, extremely large amount of hair.
00:15:35.061 --> 00:15:39.866
This is after peptides.
00:15:40.366 --> 00:15:41.701
Okay. they have peptides for this.
00:15:41.701 --> 00:15:43.002
So, listen,
00:15:43.002 --> 00:15:44.670
I just got a haircut not long ago. okay? i get yeah.
00:15:44.670 --> 00:15:46.973
Okay. whatever you say. andrew. yeah.
00:15:46.973 --> 00:15:48.741
So, jonathan, let's just get your viewpoint,
00:15:48.741 --> 00:15:54.013
First of all, on where
00:15:54.013 --> 00:15:55.448
We're at with this cease fire, and then we'll get into
00:15:55.448 --> 00:15:57.617
The way the movement has reacted to it.
00:15:57.617 --> 00:15:59.952
Yeah, i mean, you know,
00:15:59.952 --> 00:16:00.987
Just to set the table for for your listeners,
00:16:00.987 --> 00:16:03.489
You know, i this is something i talk about
00:16:03.489 --> 00:16:04.891
Quite a lot on, on the show with, with chris rufo.
00:16:04.891 --> 00:16:07.160
We have a show on the blaze,
00:16:07.160 --> 00:16:08.061
And we've been talking about the iran war
00:16:08.061 --> 00:16:09.629
And i share,
00:16:09.629 --> 00:16:10.563
I think, your guys's perspective
00:16:10.563 --> 00:16:12.065
Not to speak for you both, which is that
00:16:12.065 --> 00:16:14.400
I was always skeptical of this as a military operation.
00:16:14.400 --> 00:16:17.437
It was unclear to me what the objectives were.
00:16:17.437 --> 00:16:19.939
It was a bit unclear to me how we were meant to achieve
00:16:19.939 --> 00:16:23.910
Those objectives, and certainly what
00:16:23.910 --> 00:16:25.611
The day after was, look, might look like.
00:16:25.611 --> 00:16:28.681
And i was also maybe primarily worried
00:16:28.681 --> 00:16:32.018
That this would distract from domestic priorities.
00:16:32.018 --> 00:16:34.487
There's a domestic agenda
00:16:34.487 --> 00:16:36.289
That we want to see this administration
00:16:36.289 --> 00:16:39.325
Not just continue, to pursue, but achieve it
00:16:39.325 --> 00:16:43.362
At a significant rate as we head into the midterms.
00:16:43.362 --> 00:16:45.631
So i want to see us refocus our efforts on that.
00:16:45.631 --> 00:16:48.534
But i will say, i was never a duma about this war.
00:16:48.534 --> 00:16:51.137
And i think, you know, like everybody
00:16:51.137 --> 00:16:52.972
Today, i'm going to claim
00:16:52.972 --> 00:16:54.240
Some kind of vindication, maybe prematurely,
00:16:54.240 --> 00:16:57.810
But that is just to say that i never bought the sort of
00:16:57.810 --> 00:17:01.414
Catastrophe scenario that that many people were selling.
00:17:01.414 --> 00:17:05.952
I think what we saw yesterday, even if this cease fire
00:17:05.952 --> 00:17:09.088
Doesn't hold permanently right now,
00:17:09.088 --> 00:17:11.724
Even if these negotiations take several weeks
00:17:11.724 --> 00:17:14.494
To get going and start to produce results
00:17:14.494 --> 00:17:18.664
That at least the markets, oil prices
00:17:18.664 --> 00:17:22.201
Took a nosedive yesterday after this was announced.
00:17:22.201 --> 00:17:25.838
The stock market is on a historic upward trend.
00:17:25.838 --> 00:17:29.675
Now, after these announcements suggest to me
00:17:29.675 --> 00:17:33.146
That there was
00:17:33.479 --> 00:17:34.580
Always a way out of this, that trump at any moment
00:17:34.580 --> 00:17:37.750
Could essentially fold the hand.
00:17:37.750 --> 00:17:40.520
Okay.
00:17:40.520 --> 00:17:41.120
And that might not sound
00:17:41.120 --> 00:17:42.922
Well to the administration and administrative boosters,
00:17:42.922 --> 00:17:46.359
But it's that's really what taco means, i think
00:17:46.359 --> 00:17:50.129
Is a willingness when, you know,
00:17:50.129 --> 00:17:53.399
The cards aren't in your favor to just fold the hand.
00:17:53.399 --> 00:17:56.969
And so if that's what this means here,
00:17:56.969 --> 00:17:58.604
That trump is going to fold the hand
00:17:58.604 --> 00:18:00.239
And we just cut our losses and can get out of this.
00:18:00.239 --> 00:18:02.675
While in the grand scheme of things,
00:18:03.442 --> 00:18:05.344
It might not be, a high point, for this term,
00:18:05.344 --> 00:18:10.216
It's not going to be i don't think the catastrophe
00:18:10.216 --> 00:18:13.452
That that many have been selling online.
00:18:13.452 --> 00:18:15.388
So, that's that's one part of it.
00:18:15.388 --> 00:18:17.790
And i think the other thing
00:18:17.790 --> 00:18:18.691
I learned or that we're learning,
00:18:18.691 --> 00:18:20.493
And that has been clear all along,
00:18:20.493 --> 00:18:22.628
But but maybe certain people have neglected in this equation
00:18:22.628 --> 00:18:26.866
Is that iran is an irrational actor.
00:18:26.866 --> 00:18:29.502
Okay? we may not like them.
00:18:29.502 --> 00:18:31.170
We may not like what they do.
00:18:31.170 --> 00:18:33.372
We may not like their point of
00:18:33.372 --> 00:18:35.474
View and, and some of the geopolitical,
00:18:35.474 --> 00:18:39.011
Objectives that they pursue.
00:18:39.011 --> 00:18:41.881
But they are motivated by survival.
00:18:41.881 --> 00:18:45.184
And when you're dealing
00:18:45.184 --> 00:18:46.552
With a counterpart who is motivated by survival,
00:18:46.552 --> 00:18:50.656
You can predict what they want and what they will respond to.
00:18:50.656 --> 00:18:53.926
They will respond to certain kinds of incentives.
00:18:53.926 --> 00:18:56.729
And i think we are seeing that here
00:18:56.729 --> 00:18:59.198
With the cease fire, as imperfect as it may be.
00:18:59.198 --> 00:19:02.201
And what this all resounds to, in my view,
00:19:02.201 --> 00:19:05.404
Is that we actually have a lot of optionality here.
00:19:05.404 --> 00:19:08.307
We're in a situation where there's a lot
00:19:08.307 --> 00:19:10.943
Of opportunity to maneuver and negotiate.
00:19:10.943 --> 00:19:13.846
And this is really, of course,
00:19:13.846 --> 00:19:15.214
Where trump shines at the negotiation table.
00:19:15.214 --> 00:19:18.084
So i'm
00:19:18.084 --> 00:19:19.252
I'm cautiously optimistic that this could resolve itself
00:19:19.252 --> 00:19:23.389
And more or less from, domestic political standpoint,
00:19:23.389 --> 00:19:27.360
Be forgotten by, let's say, mid-june, which would be,
00:19:27.360 --> 00:19:31.097
I think, ideal and set us up for, midterms rather.
00:19:31.097 --> 00:19:35.268
Well,
00:19:35.268 --> 00:19:36.335
Yeah.
00:19:36.569 --> 00:19:36.836
And i,
00:19:36.836 --> 00:19:37.370
We, we
00:19:37.370 --> 00:19:38.237
Kept saying, like, trump could simply
00:19:38.237 --> 00:19:39.438
Just declare victory and get out. yeah.
00:19:39.438 --> 00:19:41.073
I mean, essentially
00:19:41.073 --> 00:19:41.941
That's what he was kind of positioning,
00:19:41.941 --> 00:19:44.110
I believe, with the strait of hormuz saying, hey,
00:19:44.110 --> 00:19:45.811
We don't get any of our energy from there.
00:19:45.811 --> 00:19:47.713
It's your guys's problem, nato.
00:19:47.713 --> 00:19:49.515
If you guys want the strait open.
00:19:49.515 --> 00:19:51.417
And i think we're going to kind of see some of that
00:19:51.417 --> 00:19:53.452
When it comes to whether they're tariffs
00:19:53.452 --> 00:19:55.187
Or whether it's a joint venture,
00:19:55.187 --> 00:19:56.656
Whether we allow iran to, you know,
00:19:56.656 --> 00:19:59.058
Put a toll on these tankers that go through.
00:19:59.058 --> 00:20:00.926
Not ideal.
00:20:00.926 --> 00:20:02.061
It sets a bad precedent, i think, for energy and trade
00:20:02.061 --> 00:20:04.897
Throughout the world.
00:20:04.897 --> 00:20:05.831
But it's also not a doomsday scenario.
00:20:05.831 --> 00:20:07.733
I think if the president i think the one thing he seems
00:20:07.733 --> 00:20:10.536
Consistently fixated on is the nuclear weapon part.
00:20:10.536 --> 00:20:13.272
I think if you can credibly claim
00:20:13.272 --> 00:20:15.274
I have made it so,
00:20:15.274 --> 00:20:16.142
This will never happen or it will take an
00:20:16.142 --> 00:20:18.210
Extremely long time to happen.
00:20:18.210 --> 00:20:19.812
I agree he's ready to accept a lot of other things.
00:20:19.812 --> 00:20:22.415
I, i totally agree,
00:20:22.415 --> 00:20:23.349
I think what's going to happen out of this
00:20:23.349 --> 00:20:24.717
And then i'll throw to you,
00:20:24.717 --> 00:20:25.685
Jonathan, is the negotiations that are going
00:20:25.685 --> 00:20:28.087
To go on in islamabad.
00:20:28.087 --> 00:20:29.388
And so apparently starting friday,
00:20:29.388 --> 00:20:31.190
There's some question
00:20:31.190 --> 00:20:32.191
Of whether or not security is such that j.d.
00:20:32.191 --> 00:20:34.727
Vance can participate.
00:20:34.727 --> 00:20:35.761
But jared kushner, wyckoff,
00:20:35.761 --> 00:20:37.663
I think they are going to demand
00:20:37.663 --> 00:20:39.799
That there are actual american forces or observers
00:20:39.799 --> 00:20:44.337
Or whatever that goes on with this iea or whatever it may be.
00:20:44.337 --> 00:20:48.040
I got the acronym wrong
00:20:48.040 --> 00:20:49.241
That goes in and actually removes it
00:20:49.241 --> 00:20:50.743
Physically removes it, and observes the removal of that.
00:20:50.743 --> 00:20:53.012
If they can negotiate
00:20:53.012 --> 00:20:54.280
That in all of this, you're right, blake, i think
00:20:54.280 --> 00:20:57.083
They're going to be willing to
00:20:57.083 --> 00:20:58.217
To put up with a lot, including removing sanctions.
00:20:58.217 --> 00:21:00.653
This this tolls through the strait.
00:21:00.653 --> 00:21:02.555
Jonathan. your take.
00:21:02.555 --> 00:21:04.190
Yeah. i just think that, you know, blake's right.
00:21:04.190 --> 00:21:06.025
And ending a war is difficult.
00:21:06.025 --> 00:21:07.693
But what you want in
00:21:07.693 --> 00:21:08.861
This situation is for everybody to be able to walk away.
00:21:08.861 --> 00:21:12.031
Both sides
00:21:12.031 --> 00:21:12.965
Need to be able to walk away saving face
00:21:12.965 --> 00:21:14.467
To their own people, their own constituency.
00:21:14.467 --> 00:21:16.969
Iran can tell their people that they made
00:21:16.969 --> 00:21:19.572
The great satan blink. okay? and that's all they need.
00:21:19.572 --> 00:21:22.141
And they survived.
00:21:22.141 --> 00:21:23.142
There was no regime change.
00:21:23.142 --> 00:21:24.977
So they're still standing.
00:21:24.977 --> 00:21:26.345
That is a win, sort of.
00:21:26.345 --> 00:21:27.880
Regardless of anything else that happens from their end,
00:21:27.880 --> 00:21:31.250
From trump's point of view.
00:21:31.250 --> 00:21:32.852
The big headline item here, and i think really the thing
00:21:32.852 --> 00:21:35.721
That's motivating him, maybe even more so than the,
00:21:35.721 --> 00:21:39.058
Nuclear material, the uranium, is that he got the ayatollah.
00:21:39.058 --> 00:21:42.862
The ayatollah has existed as this sort of boogeyman
00:21:42.862 --> 00:21:46.298
For people trump's age, going back to the cold war
00:21:46.298 --> 00:21:50.636
And, you know, trump got another notch on his belt.
00:21:50.636 --> 00:21:53.806
He got the ayatollah.
00:21:53.806 --> 00:21:55.207
Their military capacity is badly degraded.
00:21:55.207 --> 00:21:57.943
Obviously, he can still do some stuff
00:21:57.943 --> 00:22:00.346
Like control the strait of hormuz,
00:22:00.346 --> 00:22:01.814
But it's badly degraded if he can get
00:22:01.814 --> 00:22:04.550
Just some compromise, even rhetorical compromise
00:22:04.550 --> 00:22:08.220
On the uranium stuff.
00:22:08.220 --> 00:22:09.655
I think both sides can walk from this.
00:22:09.655 --> 00:22:11.690
And again, while it's not a win per se,
00:22:11.690 --> 00:22:15.261
It's not a huge w. it's not the thing
00:22:15.261 --> 00:22:16.829
We're celebrating going into midterms.
00:22:16.829 --> 00:22:19.198
It's largely forgotten, i think, in several months.
00:22:19.198 --> 00:22:23.135
Jonathan cooperman and, cooperman,
00:22:23.135 --> 00:22:25.738
I think that's, you're trying
00:22:25.738 --> 00:22:27.006
To keep the coalition together right now, you know?
00:22:27.006 --> 00:22:29.975
What's the last one? it is determinism.
00:22:29.975 --> 00:22:31.877
Okay.
00:22:31.877 --> 00:22:32.111
No, i,
00:22:32.111 --> 00:22:33.345
I know i view myself is about as far right as you can go,
00:22:33.345 --> 00:22:36.816
On most issues, especially like immigration and.
00:22:36.816 --> 00:22:39.885
Yeah, i'm,
00:22:39.885 --> 00:22:40.619
You know,
00:22:40.619 --> 00:22:41.420
Up and down the line, far right
00:22:41.420 --> 00:22:42.721
As you can go, which is just a bit left of me.
00:22:42.721 --> 00:22:44.857
Yeah, i know this is our internal debate.
00:22:44.857 --> 00:22:47.259
Looks like you're more, moderate.
00:22:47.259 --> 00:22:49.228
But this is my point.
00:22:49.228 --> 00:22:50.196
It's like it's crazy to feel like
00:22:50.196 --> 00:22:52.264
We're these, like, moderate voices.
00:22:52.264 --> 00:22:54.200
When you got part of the
00:22:54.200 --> 00:22:55.968
The former coalition, i don't know what's
00:22:55.968 --> 00:22:57.736
Going to emerge as that's, you know, calling to,
00:22:57.736 --> 00:23:00.406
Basically coup the president
00:23:00.406 --> 00:23:01.907
Because they don't agree with his policies.
00:23:01.907 --> 00:23:03.909
So, like,
00:23:03.909 --> 00:23:04.977
All of a sudden i have to be like a squish moderate
00:23:04.977 --> 00:23:07.413
And i hate it. yeah, i can't wait like, so.
00:23:07.413 --> 00:23:09.782
So we're going to talk about the dignity act an hour or two
00:23:09.782 --> 00:23:12.651
Just because i, i need to rage against rhinos
00:23:12.651 --> 00:23:15.621
A little bit harder here. yeah. good.
00:23:15.621 --> 00:23:17.456
That's jonathan klein.
00:23:17.456 --> 00:23:18.457
Tell it exactly.
00:23:18.457 --> 00:23:20.059
All right, my friend. we'll see you soon, i hope.
00:23:20.059 --> 00:23:22.094
All right, guys, really appreciate it.
00:23:22.094 --> 00:23:23.629
Take care for the time, man.
00:23:23.629 --> 00:23:23.629

Jonathan Keeperman: April 9, 2026 | Charlie Kirk Today

April 9, 2026 | 23:29

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