Charlie Kirk Today

Rich Baris: July 16, 2026 | Charlie Kirk Today

July 16, 2026 | 23:29

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Charlie Kirk Today | Rich Baris: July 16, 2026 | Charlie Kirk Today | July 16, 2026

Want to
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Talk about this clip, blake, that's going viral.
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And i want to make sure we address it dispassionately.
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You can have critiques about this clip.
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Certainly. and we do.
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But i think some of them,
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Some of them have been a little disingenuous.
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I'm going to get into it.
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But this is of course, we're talking about acb
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And amy coney barrett.
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She is one of the supreme court justices.
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She was testifying
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And made a comment that is now has a lot of people
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On the internet saying she should step down
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And we're going to have a back and forth about this.
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And i couldn't help but think of that 1991 clip
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Of clarence thomas, who was so defiant.
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And we're going to play both clips
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Side by side and discuss it right now.
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Let's play the clip.
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And this should andrew,
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We should just just to set this up.
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They're testifying before congress
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Because they're seeking a $230 million per year
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Security budget.
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So you divide that by each justice.
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That's, what, like,
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I'm trying to think of how many millions
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That is per person, and i'm flopping on the spot.
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That's like, what, 30 million per justice?
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It's a lot.
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Let's go ahead and play the clip. sot nine.
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So i thought i would just share a little bit
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About how
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The threats have, affected me and my family personally.
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They have required me to or my,
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My children to think about
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And see things that children should not have to see.
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A few years ago, around the time of the dobbs
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Leak, my security detail sent me home
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With a bulletproof vest, and my 12 year old son
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Was standing in the doorway of my bedroom,
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And he wanted to know what it was and why i had it, and
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I didn't know how to respond.
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I didn't expect that performing this service
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Was going to put me in the position
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Of explaining to my children what a bulletproof vest was,
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And why i had to wear one.
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Roughly six weeks ago,
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I was the victim of a swatting incident.
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Many of us, me included, have received threatening
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Anonymous deliveries designed to intimidate and harass us.
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Federal judges across the country,
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Including the supreme court,
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Continue to do their jobs without fear or favor.
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But the threat level is really high.
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All right.
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So it's an important point to make any sorts
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Of political threats, violence completely unacceptable.
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Obviously,
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My heart goes out to her and her family for having
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To deal with this stuff,
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But it's really important to remember that
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She was confirmed after kavanaugh, right?
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The you had chuck schumer,
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You know, essentially threatening kavanaugh
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From the steps of the supreme court
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When during that confirmation process
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That was very, very tumultuous, very tense.
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She knew what the job description was.
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So i understand that it wasn't.
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And it shouldn't be this way.
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I genuinely understand that.
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But she knew what the job description was.
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Remember she kavanaugh and she what?
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She would have watched this.
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She would have known this had someone
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Show up to his house and try and kill him.
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Right?
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She saw that happen,
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And she knew that the job description
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Was going to be intense.
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This does strike me as naive.
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This does strike me as not understanding the assignment.
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This does strike me is not what the country is up against.
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And so i understand why
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People are frustrated about this clip.
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You and i'm not alleging that she didn't vote the way
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That we wanted to her to on birthright citizenship,
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Because she didn't rule the way that we wanted her
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To, rather because she was scared.
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But certainly that's the connection everybody's making.
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Play it is, but i think it's worth stepping up.
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People.
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They want to seize on an excuse to bash acb.
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There's there's a chart going around.
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They maybe you guys can throw it up
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Where people are claiming she's mildly less conservative
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Overall in her voting record.
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Since the dobbs ruling and the backlash
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To that, that it maybe has put fear into them.
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And it's possible that that's the case.
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But instead of complaining about coney barrett,
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We have to really confront an important fact here,
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Which is the supreme court is a equal branch of government.
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It's an incredibly important one.
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It's one of the most important vehicles we have for getting
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Conservative victories in this country.
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And it's incredibly vulnerable.
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It's by far the most vulnerable branch of government
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That supreme court justices serve for life.
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And if that seat is vacated for any reason, the sitting u.s.
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President, with the advice and consent of the senate,
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Picks their replacement.
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And so
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When the
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Dobbs ruling came down,
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When there was that nut ball
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Who wanted to try to assassinate
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That justice there or or whoever it was,
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It wasn't kavanaugh they're going after.
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I believe it was. yes.
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And if they had succeeded, it would have been president
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Biden able to pick that potential replacement, if any.
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And these supreme court justices, they have homes.
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We don't publicize their address,
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But they're not impossible to find out.
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They have a relatively normal life.
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They have extended family members.
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There are so many ways that one unhinged lunatic
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Could so easily, completely shake up this country
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With one violent action and someone could politically
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Exploit that.
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It's one of the biggest vulnerabilities we have.
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And rather than just complaining about what
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Acb said, i think we need to.
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We need to ask ourselves, what kind of country are we in?
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Like, do we basically need our supreme court justices
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To all have secret service level protection?
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And i think that might be a reasonable thing to to say.
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Yeah, well, i mean, the attacks and the threats against them,
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Credible threats have gone up nearly 40%.
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And in the last year.
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So i'm actually i'm sort of see this both ways.
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If it's going to take a detail, a permanent detail
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For the secret service in order to feel safe
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And secure to make their decisions,
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The way that the law dictates, as opposed to maybe fear of,
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You know, catching yourself on the wrong side of antifa,
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Then sure, i'm fine with it, but i do think
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That it's important to sort of compare and contrast.
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Right?
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This is clarence clarence thomas, who, in my opinion,
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Is the greatest living supreme court
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Justice, october 1991, during his confirmation hearing.
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And just listen to the tone difference.
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Sot 17 if they're going to kill
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Me, they're going to kill me.
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So you'd still like to serve on the supreme court?
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I'd rather die than withdraw from the process,
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Not for the purpose
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Of serving on the supreme court,
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But for the purpose of not being driven
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Out of this process.
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I would not be scared.
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I don't like bullies.
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I've never run from bullies.
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I never cry, uncle.
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And i'm not going to cry uncle today,
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Whether i want to be on the supreme court or not.
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I would rather die than withdraw.
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What an mvp.
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You can tell why he was charlie's favorite justice.
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Why he. why?
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He's almost everyone's favorite justice these days.
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All along him and alito.
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He's a he's a very courageous man.
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Utterly fearless.
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And that's the kind of person we need
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On the supreme court these days.
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Yeah.
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Exactly. right.
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And i think that's
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Yet another reason why acb just does not feel like
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She's lived up to the hopes and expectations
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That many of us had for her.
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And certainly the birthright citizenship ruling
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Still still hurts.
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But i think people are.
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I think two things can be true at once.
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Give them the detail.
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We don't want these people to be killed.
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We don't want these,
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You know, threats on their lives to be successful.
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But also men
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Wish we could have, eight more justices
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Just like clarence thomas on the court.
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Just like clarence thomas on the court.
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Rich barris, big data poll, the people's pundit.
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How are we, my friend?
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Welcome back to the show.
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Live in the dream, brother.
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Thanks for having me. as always.
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Is that a new suit that i see?
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Is that a new. is that a new?
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Oh, it looks well fitted rich.
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It it is.
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Oh, no, you're thinking of the other thing. now that's,
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Had to get fitted earlier this morning for a tux.
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No, this is different.
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This is different.
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Yeah. well, anyways, you're looking great.
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Sound great. all right, rich, thanks, bro.
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You and i have talked
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And blake have talked extensively about the iran war.
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We've done it on this show.
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I will tell you, blake and i have really immediate
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Experience with this, talking
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To some of our turning point kids about iran,
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How they they don't like it,
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How many of the kids in their circles.
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Iran has been a wedge issue from that for them where they
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They don't know how to defend it, they don't like it.
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They the for some of them
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It means they're not going to vote for trump again.
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All right.
00:08:48.552 --> 00:08:49.453
Let's just brass tacks it okay. yeah.
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Then things kind of fell into this detente.
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And it was
00:08:53.590 --> 00:08:54.658
We were working on the mou that has fallen apart
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That we are back to kinetic strikes.
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There's a lot of news about, the strait of hormuz,
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But it doesn't feel
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If i'm just temperature check on the media
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Surrounding it on the social media
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At all, it doesn't feel like it's got back up to that
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Previous level. it feels sort of.
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I don't know if this is the new normal
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From a polling perspective.
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Rich, what do you make of this?
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Because we had high hopes going into the midterms.
00:09:18.548 --> 00:09:20.417
We could put this whole iran thing behind us
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And we could we could seek peace,
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Domestic focus, all that stuff.
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Where does this leave us?
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Well, nationally.
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And we're going to find out in a few days.
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We'll do our benchmark monthly during that detente, that mou
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After the vice president announced it
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And he was selling it that entire week,
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We pulled that entire week, and he came roaring back
00:09:40.437 --> 00:09:43.473
As a ten point bump on net for trump and his approval rating.
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And it that resulted in a tightening
00:09:46.743 --> 00:09:49.179
Of the generic ballot.
00:09:49.179 --> 00:09:50.614
But we do elaborate interviews with people all the time.
00:09:50.614 --> 00:09:54.151
And i think what
00:09:54.151 --> 00:09:55.719
We're going to find out what it is nationally.
00:09:55.719 --> 00:09:57.454
But in some of the battleground states,
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It means his approval is going to fall again.
00:09:58.955 --> 00:10:00.891
And, you know, in levels we really don't want to see.
00:10:00.891 --> 00:10:04.127
But there is i think you're right
00:10:04.127 --> 00:10:05.495
That there is a
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I don't want to say a concession
00:10:06.897 --> 00:10:09.499
Because i don't think there it's a concern.
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I don't think they're conceding
00:10:11.368 --> 00:10:12.502
And i mean, they're happy with it.
00:10:12.502 --> 00:10:14.271
But there may maybe,
00:10:14.271 --> 00:10:15.772
You know, kind of a flaw for president trump
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Where it just doesn't matter
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Unless all hell would break loose.
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They understand now that we're back at it.
00:10:21.812 --> 00:10:23.847
They don't like it, but now we're back at it.
00:10:23.847 --> 00:10:26.450
What i think what i'm really concerned about
00:10:26.450 --> 00:10:28.452
Is what it means for prices going forward.
00:10:28.452 --> 00:10:30.187
Andrew, we saw the cpi report this week.
00:10:30.187 --> 00:10:32.956
It was good news.
00:10:32.956 --> 00:10:34.124
But that was because of the ceasefire.
00:10:34.124 --> 00:10:36.426
Guys.
00:10:36.426 --> 00:10:37.394
And by the way, it didn't even bring us back
00:10:37.394 --> 00:10:39.329
To a third of what we lost because of the war over
00:10:39.329 --> 00:10:41.765
Inflation.
00:10:41.765 --> 00:10:42.966
So, you know, it meant we were headed in the right direction.
00:10:42.966 --> 00:10:45.702
But we still have,
00:10:45.702 --> 00:10:47.237
Unfortunately, price gains that are left on the table.
00:10:47.237 --> 00:10:50.107
And we needed a more sustained
00:10:50.107 --> 00:10:51.541
Ceasefire in order to make dent.
00:10:51.541 --> 00:10:53.076
That's what i'm concerned about because i'm
00:10:53.076 --> 00:10:54.644
Looking at brant crude right now.
00:10:54.644 --> 00:10:56.513
You know, that's concerning.
00:10:56.513 --> 00:10:58.682
The price of gas is an everyday prices. brant.
00:10:58.682 --> 00:11:01.284
Right now, what's the price of bread right now?
00:11:01.284 --> 00:11:04.087
The spike.
00:11:04.087 --> 00:11:05.255
Let's let me go back to it.
00:11:05.255 --> 00:11:06.690
A i just looked at the spike
00:11:06.690 --> 00:11:07.958
Chart before brant crude prices day 8080, 92.
00:11:07.958 --> 00:11:11.962
Right now, 84 is 79, 84, 76.
00:11:11.962 --> 00:11:15.365
It's moving.
00:11:15.365 --> 00:11:16.032
So okay i'm looking at 8092.
00:11:16.032 --> 00:11:18.935
So but that's okay.
00:11:18.935 --> 00:11:20.036
We've maybe asked you this before
00:11:20.036 --> 00:11:21.638
But we mentioned gas prices.
00:11:21.638 --> 00:11:23.774
And that is obviously an unsurprising easy go to.
00:11:23.774 --> 00:11:28.111
It's a thing that does fluctuate
00:11:28.111 --> 00:11:29.613
Pretty significantly in price.
00:11:29.613 --> 00:11:31.214
Unlike most things people buy.
00:11:31.214 --> 00:11:33.016
But how much
00:11:33.016 --> 00:11:34.718
How much you're pulling literally
00:11:34.718 --> 00:11:35.852
Is directly correlated to whatever
00:11:35.852 --> 00:11:39.022
The current gasoline prices that do.
00:11:39.022 --> 00:11:40.957
People really often default to?
00:11:40.957 --> 00:11:43.093
That is what i assume the economy is doing
00:11:43.093 --> 00:11:44.961
Like that is their shorthand,
00:11:44.961 --> 00:11:46.930
I think,
00:11:47.197 --> 00:11:48.064
Because right now economy and jobs more
00:11:48.064 --> 00:11:50.901
Generally is the second most important issue.
00:11:50.901 --> 00:11:54.070
Cost of living.
00:11:54.070 --> 00:11:55.071
How much things cost is the number one.
00:11:55.071 --> 00:11:57.374
And there's so much that's involved in that.
00:11:57.374 --> 00:11:59.476
Like i mean health care premiums, right?
00:11:59.476 --> 00:12:01.745
Deductibles, housing, rent, electric bills,
00:12:01.745 --> 00:12:06.016
Gas is just something the reason why it's so damaging
00:12:06.016 --> 00:12:08.885
Politically is because people see it every day.
00:12:08.885 --> 00:12:11.855
Even your electric bill you're paying once a month, right?
00:12:11.855 --> 00:12:14.257
You're paying your rent once a month,
00:12:14.257 --> 00:12:16.026
But you're your gas bill.
00:12:16.026 --> 00:12:17.260
You're paying almost every day.
00:12:17.260 --> 00:12:18.662
You know, every couple of days.
00:12:18.662 --> 00:12:19.729
Some people, you know, still live to every 10 to $15
00:12:19.729 --> 00:12:23.967
That they have,
00:12:23.967 --> 00:12:24.835
You know, at a time where, you know,
00:12:24.835 --> 00:12:26.236
Some of us are more fortunate and can fill it up, as,
00:12:26.236 --> 00:12:28.672
You know, as we go to a gas station
00:12:28.672 --> 00:12:30.240
And we don't deal with it as much.
00:12:30.240 --> 00:12:31.541
But even still, someone like me that i still see it,
00:12:31.541 --> 00:12:34.511
You know, i was happy.
00:12:34.511 --> 00:12:35.645
I was sad because gas went up by me.
00:12:35.645 --> 00:12:37.347
I was super stoked
00:12:37.347 --> 00:12:38.548
That i got to use my rewards today, and i got a dollar off.
00:12:38.548 --> 00:12:41.017
So it was less than, 70 bucks to fill up my entire tank.
00:12:41.017 --> 00:12:45.055
But for others, you know,
00:12:45.055 --> 00:12:47.691
Who are, you know, obviously lower income brackets.
00:12:47.691 --> 00:12:50.527
It does. it hurts.
00:12:50.527 --> 00:12:51.561
And what it can result in, not only of them
00:12:51.561 --> 00:12:53.797
Switching their vote, but maybe just not
00:12:53.797 --> 00:12:55.498
Voting at all because they're upset over it.
00:12:55.498 --> 00:12:57.567
We got to remember,
00:12:57.567 --> 00:12:58.535
We don't have trump on the ballot. right.
00:12:58.535 --> 00:13:00.203
So trump is a great galvanizing force for the left,
00:13:00.203 --> 00:13:02.505
But he's also a great galvanizing
00:13:02.505 --> 00:13:03.840
Get out the vote force for us on the right.
00:13:03.840 --> 00:13:05.742
So is that what you're concerned about?
00:13:05.742 --> 00:13:08.278
It is and i unfortunately and i it is
00:13:08.278 --> 00:13:10.513
I mean i'm sure would tell you like even last year
00:13:10.513 --> 00:13:14.217
I told the white house it's not fair to ask him to do this,
00:13:14.217 --> 00:13:17.454
But the party is just not ready without him yet.
00:13:17.454 --> 00:13:20.490
He has to do it.
00:13:20.490 --> 00:13:21.825
He has to go out and win those races the way that he did
00:13:21.825 --> 00:13:24.728
In 2018.
00:13:24.728 --> 00:13:25.762
The senate could have went really bad in 2018,
00:13:25.762 --> 00:13:28.298
If not for donald trump himself going out there and doing it
00:13:28.298 --> 00:13:31.701
So people understand how trump won in 24.
00:13:31.701 --> 00:13:34.537
There are a few things.
00:13:34.537 --> 00:13:35.605
It's never just one thing, but you just brought up
00:13:35.605 --> 00:13:37.107
Young men, millennial men and down.
00:13:37.107 --> 00:13:39.843
That was it.
00:13:39.843 --> 00:13:40.977
Trump galvanizing these voters.
00:13:40.977 --> 00:13:42.913
It's not that they changed.
00:13:42.913 --> 00:13:44.080
Yes, he won the mind changers.
00:13:44.080 --> 00:13:45.882
But the mind changers
00:13:45.882 --> 00:13:47.217
Aren't as big of a group as i think some people think.
00:13:47.217 --> 00:13:50.420
You have the high propensity mind changers
00:13:50.420 --> 00:13:52.322
You have to be really concerned about.
00:13:52.322 --> 00:13:53.924
But going after 24, i said it on election
00:13:53.924 --> 00:13:56.993
Night and 24 celebrate. congratulations.
00:13:56.993 --> 00:13:59.429
This is awesome.
00:13:59.429 --> 00:14:00.497
It's an incredible coalition, but it's also one
00:14:00.497 --> 00:14:02.832
That is a lower propensity coalition.
00:14:02.832 --> 00:14:04.567
From this point forward,
00:14:04.567 --> 00:14:05.936
You have to figure out as truman
00:14:05.936 --> 00:14:07.871
And other democrats did in the middle
00:14:07.871 --> 00:14:09.673
Of the 20th century, particularly,
00:14:09.673 --> 00:14:11.441
You have to figure out how to get these people
00:14:11.441 --> 00:14:13.410
And turn them into midterm voters,
00:14:13.410 --> 00:14:15.011
Which can be done
00:14:15.011 --> 00:14:16.079
When, you know it can be done because we watched
00:14:16.079 --> 00:14:17.847
People in the 20th century do this.
00:14:17.847 --> 00:14:19.749
It's more
00:14:19.749 --> 00:14:20.817
Of a modern phenomenon that people opt out like this.
00:14:20.817 --> 00:14:23.486
But the 80s babies and, younger,
00:14:23.486 --> 00:14:26.589
You know, they were the they were the driving force
00:14:26.589 --> 00:14:29.259
Behind trump's, trump's win.
00:14:29.259 --> 00:14:31.094
And even among 80s babies,
00:14:31.094 --> 00:14:32.696
That was the highest group of mind changers.
00:14:32.696 --> 00:14:34.898
But how he did better was even suburban educated women.
00:14:34.898 --> 00:14:38.935
Wasn't that he convinced a bunch of them
00:14:38.935 --> 00:14:40.770
Who voted for biden to vote for him.
00:14:40.770 --> 00:14:42.339
He drove out a whole other group of them.
00:14:42.339 --> 00:14:45.041
And by the way, you can look at this, pew.
00:14:45.041 --> 00:14:47.410
They did their voter validated survey.
00:14:47.410 --> 00:14:49.045
They found the exact same thing we found, which is,
00:14:49.045 --> 00:14:51.314
Yes, he won some mind changers.
00:14:51.314 --> 00:14:53.616
But really, what it came down to
00:14:53.616 --> 00:14:55.185
Is that he galvanized
00:14:55.185 --> 00:14:56.386
A group of people that just don't vote if they ever vote.
00:14:56.386 --> 00:14:59.889
And then he changed the electorate
00:14:59.889 --> 00:15:01.391
And what it looks like.
00:15:01.391 --> 00:15:02.225
And andrew, that is that is yes.
00:15:02.225 --> 00:15:04.427
That is the goal of the republican party.
00:15:04.427 --> 00:15:07.030
Because guys, it's not coming back.
00:15:07.030 --> 00:15:09.299
You know, like the romney
00:15:09.299 --> 00:15:10.533
Coalition, the 2014 electorate, the 2010 electorate,
00:15:10.533 --> 00:15:14.738
Democrats were able to overperform in 20
00:15:14.738 --> 00:15:17.307
To 1 because of redistricting, but also two,
00:15:17.307 --> 00:15:19.843
They understood the realignment better,
00:15:19.843 --> 00:15:21.778
And they put their resources where they knew
00:15:21.778 --> 00:15:23.713
They needed to put them, and they were able to beat back.
00:15:23.713 --> 00:15:26.416
You know, herschel walker, who did phenomenal
00:15:26.416 --> 00:15:28.551
In the first round, but he fell just shy of 50%.
00:15:28.551 --> 00:15:31.421
It was because the republican voter is a lower prop voter.
00:15:31.421 --> 00:15:34.257
They did not come out for that runoff
00:15:34.257 --> 00:15:36.092
That raphael warnock
00:15:36.092 --> 00:15:37.460
Was able to beat him in that second round.
00:15:37.460 --> 00:15:39.929
That would not have happened ten years ago
00:15:39.929 --> 00:15:42.565
Would have been the reverse.
00:15:42.565 --> 00:15:43.600
But this is the reality that we live in now.
00:15:43.600 --> 00:15:45.702
And that's why this young coalition is so important.
00:15:45.702 --> 00:15:48.405
Yeah.
00:15:48.405 --> 00:15:49.706
Everyone focuses on the boomers because they vote at
00:15:49.706 --> 00:15:52.909
High rates, and that's true.
00:15:52.909 --> 00:15:54.310
But andrew, boomers are
00:15:54.310 --> 00:15:55.678
Not republican like the silent generation was a republican.
00:15:55.678 --> 00:15:59.315
So this constant catering
00:15:59.315 --> 00:16:00.884
To the boomers, it's foolish beyond
00:16:00.884 --> 00:16:03.420
I mean,
00:16:03.420 --> 00:16:04.187
The math just isn't on your side
00:16:04.187 --> 00:16:05.488
If you're making that case, by the way, by burn it down,
00:16:05.488 --> 00:16:08.158
That's exactly the point.
00:16:08.158 --> 00:16:09.192
Joshua lezak and i are making in that book.
00:16:09.192 --> 00:16:11.628
And soon when these voters drop out altogether,
00:16:11.628 --> 00:16:14.597
What are we going to do in a midterm,
00:16:14.597 --> 00:16:16.066
Guys, four years from now,
00:16:16.066 --> 00:16:17.500
What are we going to do, you know, or, in 20, 32,
00:16:17.500 --> 00:16:21.171
We'll be obviously presidential.
00:16:21.171 --> 00:16:22.305
What are we going to do in 2034?
00:16:22.305 --> 00:16:24.274
It will be lost if we don't start to understand
00:16:24.274 --> 00:16:26.576
This, grapple with it now and deal with it now.
00:16:26.576 --> 00:16:29.012
And we don't read all the curve.
00:16:29.012 --> 00:16:31.147
I want to throw this poll up.
00:16:31.147 --> 00:16:32.649
This is from morning consult here.
00:16:32.649 --> 00:16:34.517
Rich.
00:16:34.517 --> 00:16:35.618
President trump says this is kind of still in that
00:16:35.618 --> 00:16:37.921
We're we're forging a hard fought peace with iran.
00:16:37.921 --> 00:16:41.791
President trump's approval rating went up two.
00:16:41.791 --> 00:16:44.127
So approve 45 disapprove 53.
00:16:44.127 --> 00:16:46.463
And vice president vance again, who is seen as the leader,
00:16:46.463 --> 00:16:49.866
The charge leader of this peace deal,
00:16:49.866 --> 00:16:52.535
His his approval rating went up plus seven.
00:16:52.535 --> 00:16:55.071
And he had a net approval rating 45 over 44.
00:16:55.071 --> 00:16:58.408
Right.
00:16:58.408 --> 00:16:59.275
And you saw that generic ballot shrink.
00:16:59.275 --> 00:17:01.311
I hope and i pray that
00:17:01.311 --> 00:17:03.880
The reemergence of hostilities with iran is not going
00:17:03.880 --> 00:17:06.316
To take us backwards.
00:17:06.316 --> 00:17:08.084
But it's very it's very much something that could happen.
00:17:08.084 --> 00:17:11.087
But to your point, and we saw this
00:17:11.087 --> 00:17:12.889
And i saw this with our students.
00:17:12.889 --> 00:17:14.457
You know, they they're worried about a $20 burrito.
00:17:14.457 --> 00:17:18.828
That's what they don't want.
00:17:18.828 --> 00:17:19.996
And so those types of costs are very sticky
00:17:19.996 --> 00:17:22.899
In the in the culture and in the economy.
00:17:22.899 --> 00:17:26.136
And so we got work to do, folks.
00:17:26.136 --> 00:17:27.704
We got a lot of work to do.
00:17:27.704 --> 00:17:32.002
We got a lot of work to do.
00:17:32.002 --> 00:17:37.380
All right.
00:17:37.680 --> 00:17:37.947
Rich,
00:17:37.947 --> 00:17:39.449
I want to go through the senate races
00:17:39.449 --> 00:17:41.751
Because there's a lot of intrigue with them.
00:17:41.751 --> 00:17:43.620
Let's start with maine. right.
00:17:43.620 --> 00:17:45.355
You've got, throw up this this is, a maine poll.
00:17:45.355 --> 00:17:49.125
And this was commissioned by a pro shah nirav shah.
00:17:49.125 --> 00:17:53.830
Outside group has heard slightly up 4746.
00:17:53.830 --> 00:17:58.501
Susan collins is beating troy jackson, 4847.
00:17:58.501 --> 00:18:01.905
And susan collins is tied, 4747 with shenna bellows.
00:18:01.905 --> 00:18:07.010
What are you making of this race as it shakes out?
00:18:07.010 --> 00:18:09.746
And who do we want to run against?
00:18:09.746 --> 00:18:12.749
Yeah, first, maine is an incredibly difficult
00:18:12.749 --> 00:18:16.019
State to poll.
00:18:16.019 --> 00:18:17.120
We were literally one of only two pollsters
00:18:17.120 --> 00:18:19.889
To project that donald trump
00:18:19.889 --> 00:18:21.224
Would win the second congressional district.
00:18:21.224 --> 00:18:23.126
It is hard, and i'm saying it's even hard for me.
00:18:23.126 --> 00:18:25.862
And i'm a confident pollster.
00:18:25.862 --> 00:18:27.463
It's a tough state
00:18:27.463 --> 00:18:28.464
Because the second district
00:18:28.464 --> 00:18:29.732
In the first district are so different.
00:18:29.732 --> 00:18:31.668
And because the response rates between those districts, it's
00:18:31.668 --> 00:18:34.704
Almost like two states. if you've ever been there,
00:18:34.704 --> 00:18:36.606
You know what i'm talking about.
00:18:36.606 --> 00:18:38.241
Yeah, it's very like it.
00:18:38.241 --> 00:18:40.210
It's very, earthy, crunchy.
00:18:40.210 --> 00:18:41.978
It feels like you're in seattle when you're in portland.
00:18:41.978 --> 00:18:44.514
And then the rest of the state is complete.
00:18:44.514 --> 00:18:47.217
You know, i mean, these people are working with their hand
00:18:47.217 --> 00:18:49.586
Very blue collar.
00:18:49.586 --> 00:18:50.920
It's rural. yeah, yeah. go ahead.
00:18:50.920 --> 00:18:53.356
Yeah.
00:18:53.590 --> 00:18:54.390
I mean think stephen king haven it
00:18:54.390 --> 00:18:55.892
These are all areas that are taking place in some,
00:18:55.892 --> 00:18:58.494
You know, mythical town in the second congressional
00:18:58.494 --> 00:19:02.065
District of maine.
00:19:02.065 --> 00:19:03.032
But, yeah, i look,
00:19:03.032 --> 00:19:04.634
I think there were many that jumped on the attack.
00:19:04.634 --> 00:19:07.337
Plattner ship, you know, or they
00:19:07.337 --> 00:19:09.739
They jumped on that bandwagon when they should not have
00:19:09.739 --> 00:19:12.642
And they should have waited
00:19:12.642 --> 00:19:13.509
Until the deadline and then slow drip and
00:19:13.509 --> 00:19:16.279
And and took him out by death by a thousand cuts.
00:19:16.279 --> 00:19:19.649
I didn't like what they did to grand plot.
00:19:19.649 --> 00:19:21.284
No, that's a separate story,
00:19:21.284 --> 00:19:22.418
Because i don't think we should have
00:19:22.418 --> 00:19:23.486
A chilling effect on normal people running.
00:19:23.486 --> 00:19:25.255
I don't think the ruling class is going to save us.
00:19:25.255 --> 00:19:27.223
The pedigree got us into this mess.
00:19:27.223 --> 00:19:29.225
Normal people will have to get us out.
00:19:29.225 --> 00:19:31.094
I firmly believe that.
00:19:31.094 --> 00:19:32.195
But with this, i.
00:19:32.195 --> 00:19:34.230
Look, susan collins, i hear this all the time.
00:19:34.230 --> 00:19:36.733
Susan collins over performs that
00:19:36.733 --> 00:19:38.801
And she always beats her polling.
00:19:38.801 --> 00:19:40.536
That's not true.
00:19:40.536 --> 00:19:41.671
Susan collins beats her polling when donald trump
00:19:41.671 --> 00:19:44.374
Is on the ballot.
00:19:44.374 --> 00:19:45.241
And the reason why she does
00:19:45.241 --> 00:19:46.709
Is because donald trump gets more second
00:19:46.709 --> 00:19:49.178
Congressional district, low propensity voters to vote.
00:19:49.178 --> 00:19:52.382
And when they come out, they say, yeah,
00:19:52.382 --> 00:19:53.750
I guess i'll vote for susan, too.
00:19:53.750 --> 00:19:55.251
She's got an r next to her name.
00:19:55.251 --> 00:19:56.853
That's what happens.
00:19:56.853 --> 00:19:58.154
So people were looking at this, all wrong.
00:19:58.154 --> 00:20:00.423
She's in deep trouble, man.
00:20:00.423 --> 00:20:01.491
I mean, there's no doubt this is a
00:20:01.491 --> 00:20:02.925
Not a good environment right now.
00:20:02.925 --> 00:20:04.694
And i don't see how democrats are going to have
00:20:04.694 --> 00:20:07.230
The kind of night the,
00:20:07.230 --> 00:20:08.364
You know, the our generic ballot suggests
00:20:08.364 --> 00:20:10.366
They could have if we don't fix this and not carrie maine.
00:20:10.366 --> 00:20:13.603
I do think it was you know, it was probably the better bet.
00:20:13.603 --> 00:20:17.540
But here we are now. yeah.
00:20:17.540 --> 00:20:19.242
One word on the platinum thing.
00:20:19.242 --> 00:20:20.610
I mean, i think
00:20:20.610 --> 00:20:21.844
The guy is a total scumbag, but i agree with you that the
00:20:21.844 --> 00:20:24.847
The way those attacks were rolled out,
00:20:24.847 --> 00:20:26.983
I do believe they were mostly left. left on left.
00:20:26.983 --> 00:20:29.652
But you're right.
00:20:29.652 --> 00:20:30.553
The right, jumped on that bandwagon.
00:20:30.553 --> 00:20:32.722
Absolutely.
00:20:32.722 --> 00:20:33.823
But it was tipped to be fair,
00:20:33.823 --> 00:20:36.659
It was hard,
00:20:36.993 --> 00:20:37.760
You know,
00:20:37.760 --> 00:20:38.895
When he's talking about himself as this oyster farmer
00:20:38.895 --> 00:20:40.296
And he's really just like a mama's boy.
00:20:40.296 --> 00:20:41.898
He's selling,
00:20:41.898 --> 00:20:42.965
You know, to his rich, rich parents and, you know,
00:20:42.965 --> 00:20:45.935
Living off of, disability payments from the government.
00:20:45.935 --> 00:20:48.237
Go ahead.
00:20:48.237 --> 00:20:49.072
Rich, we only have three minutes,
00:20:49.072 --> 00:20:49.872
And i want to ask about a race
00:20:49.872 --> 00:20:50.940
I feel i don't hear asked about a lot.
00:20:50.940 --> 00:20:52.809
And i'm checking the polls,
00:20:52.809 --> 00:20:54.510
And it's making me raise an eyebrow a bit.
00:20:54.510 --> 00:20:56.679
What are your thoughts on iowa?
00:20:56.679 --> 00:20:58.548
That's a yeah.
00:20:58.548 --> 00:20:59.649
That's why we have joni ernst retiring and i'm looking
00:20:59.649 --> 00:21:02.118
The most recent poll and it's by
00:21:02.118 --> 00:21:04.420
It seems to be a collab between a republican democrat firm,
00:21:04.420 --> 00:21:07.423
Josh schreck, up for over ashley hinson
00:21:07.423 --> 00:21:10.660
And the most recent one she's winning, she's up two.
00:21:10.660 --> 00:21:12.662
What do you make of that race?
00:21:12.662 --> 00:21:14.564
I hate to say this, but guys, if you take take a second
00:21:14.564 --> 00:21:18.034
And just remember how difficult these states ohio as well,
00:21:18.034 --> 00:21:21.404
How difficult
00:21:21.404 --> 00:21:22.605
They were for republicans for us before the era of trump,
00:21:22.605 --> 00:21:25.575
It really isn't that surprising to see them
00:21:25.575 --> 00:21:27.710
Swing that hard in 18 iowa actually swung harder,
00:21:27.710 --> 00:21:31.748
Against, republicans than ohio did.
00:21:31.748 --> 00:21:35.017
I think we're probably going to see
00:21:35.017 --> 00:21:36.319
A bit of a reverse of that this time.
00:21:36.319 --> 00:21:38.054
But, you know, if one goes one way,
00:21:38.054 --> 00:21:40.223
The other is going to go that way, too.
00:21:40.223 --> 00:21:41.691
And ohio is is a struggle right now as well.
00:21:41.691 --> 00:21:44.026
Sherrod brown is an extremely difficult, candidate to beat.
00:21:44.026 --> 00:21:47.330
Bernie only beat him by three and a half
00:21:47.330 --> 00:21:50.166
When trump beat, harris by 13.5.
00:21:50.166 --> 00:21:53.603
So i think the problem
00:21:53.603 --> 00:21:54.837
And the concern i have with ashley hanson, blake
00:21:54.837 --> 00:21:56.606
The entire time was the same concern
00:21:56.606 --> 00:21:58.608
I have with randy fincher, which is that they're just like
00:21:58.608 --> 00:22:01.778
Snooze fest candidates.
00:22:01.778 --> 00:22:03.446
I mean,
00:22:03.446 --> 00:22:04.280
And every time we've actually spoken
00:22:04.280 --> 00:22:05.948
To voters in iowa and they're very engaged,
00:22:05.948 --> 00:22:08.618
These are very smart, informed people.
00:22:08.618 --> 00:22:11.053
Iowa takes their politics very seriously.
00:22:11.053 --> 00:22:13.756
And then more times than not, we hear about ashley's past
00:22:13.756 --> 00:22:17.293
And people are confused about why donald trump supported her,
00:22:17.293 --> 00:22:20.329
Because, of course, she wasn't really a trump supporter.
00:22:20.329 --> 00:22:23.332
She's rebranded herself.
00:22:23.332 --> 00:22:25.001
But now it is what it is.
00:22:25.001 --> 00:22:26.536
And i think we got to be careful in the future.
00:22:26.536 --> 00:22:28.471
We're just kind of asking people
00:22:28.471 --> 00:22:29.772
To hold their nose and vote for people
00:22:29.772 --> 00:22:31.574
That they don't want to vote for.
00:22:31.574 --> 00:22:33.075
Thank god zach lane won,
00:22:33.075 --> 00:22:34.877
And was able to beat randy fenster
00:22:34.877 --> 00:22:36.846
Because i think he's got a better chance
00:22:36.846 --> 00:22:38.848
To bring out that mojo vote, which will help ashley.
00:22:38.848 --> 00:22:41.417
It's still a very steep hill for democrats to climb.
00:22:41.417 --> 00:22:45.254
But, if you again, if you look back in 18
00:22:45.254 --> 00:22:48.024
Guys, we got plowed in every congressional district.
00:22:48.024 --> 00:22:50.927
Even the first is always the closer one.
00:22:50.927 --> 00:22:53.362
They were able to hold on to district four and that was it.
00:22:53.362 --> 00:22:55.665
So iowa has had a habit of doing this.
00:22:55.665 --> 00:22:58.034
It has the the highest number of swing or pivot counties
00:22:58.034 --> 00:23:01.571
Out of any state in the country,
00:23:01.571 --> 00:23:03.039
Which a lot of people find surprising because it's white
00:23:03.039 --> 00:23:05.308
And people think it's so republican.
00:23:05.308 --> 00:23:06.976
31 pivot counties voted for barack obama
00:23:06.976 --> 00:23:09.979
Not once, but twice, and then voted for donald trump.
00:23:09.979 --> 00:23:12.949
Not once, not twice, but three times.
00:23:12.949 --> 00:23:15.852
And in between, they have swung hard against
00:23:15.852 --> 00:23:18.221
Republicans and bad years.
00:23:18.221 --> 00:23:20.056
Rich bears big data poll.
00:23:20.056 --> 00:23:22.325
The people's pundit. thanks, my friend.
00:23:22.325 --> 00:23:23.926
Good to see you.
00:23:23.926 --> 00:23:23.926

Rich Baris: July 16, 2026 | Charlie Kirk Today

July 16, 2026 | 23:29

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