Join Erick Stakelbeck on Stakelbeck Tonight as he delves into the intense geopolitical landscape of the Middle East, focusing on Israel's triumph over Hamas and Iran. Expert Jonathan Conricus sheds light on the intricate planning and execution of Operation Rising Lion, dismantling the Iranian nuclear program. With President Trump's decisive actions reshaping the region, the show explores the global ramifications and a hopeful future of peace. Stay tuned for insights, analysis, and the enduring quest for stability in a volatile region.
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Stakelbeck Tonight | Erick Stakelbeck: December 11, 2025 | Stakelbeck Tonight | December 11, 2025
- Welcome to stakelbeck tonight i'm erick stakelbeck
- 00:00:17.941 --> 00:00:19.909
- And tonight we are giving you
- 00:00:19.909 --> 00:00:21.077
- A great breakdown on the state of play
- 00:00:21.077 --> 00:00:23.913
- In the world's most volatile, chaotic and strategic region,
- 00:00:23.913 --> 00:00:27.984
- The middle east.
- 00:00:27.984 --> 00:00:29.018
- And how it affects you no matter where you live.
- 00:00:29.018 --> 00:00:31.521
- But first, remember how this all began.
- 00:00:31.521 --> 00:00:34.491
- The seven front war israel is locked in right now.
- 00:00:34.491 --> 00:00:37.727
- On october
- 00:00:37.727 --> 00:00:38.995
- 7th, hamas carried out the worst massacre of the jewish people
- 00:00:38.995 --> 00:00:42.232
- Since the holocaust, invading southern israel and slaughtering
- 00:00:42.232 --> 00:00:45.735
- 1200 people men, women, children, the elderly.
- 00:00:45.735 --> 00:00:49.572
- Hamas terrorists did not discriminate
- 00:00:49.572 --> 00:00:51.641
- As they gleefully butchered innocent people in their homes.
- 00:00:51.641 --> 00:00:55.545
- Of course, they also dragged
- 00:00:55.545 --> 00:00:56.946
- 251 people into hellish captivity in gaza.
- 00:00:56.946 --> 00:01:00.884
- Hamas is now nearing
- 00:01:00.884 --> 00:01:02.152
- Total defeat, thank god, and will either accept the terms
- 00:01:02.152 --> 00:01:05.922
- Of president trump's peace plan and disarm,
- 00:01:05.922 --> 00:01:08.458
- Or it will be wiped off the face of the earth.
- 00:01:08.458 --> 00:01:11.027
- There is no middle ground.
- 00:01:11.027 --> 00:01:12.896
- Gaza was once a crucial part of the iran backed
- 00:01:12.896 --> 00:01:16.466
- Ring of fire that surrounded israel on all sides, but october
- 00:01:16.466 --> 00:01:20.904
- 7th set off a chain of events
- 00:01:20.904 --> 00:01:22.906
- That saw israel dismantle that ring piece
- 00:01:22.906 --> 00:01:25.708
- By piece and even strike the head of the snake.
- 00:01:25.708 --> 00:01:28.845
- Iran, with heavy blows that have transformed the region.
- 00:01:28.845 --> 00:01:33.082
- So how did we get here and what comes next?
- 00:01:33.082 --> 00:01:36.352
- Jonathan conricus is a former spokesman
- 00:01:36.352 --> 00:01:38.488
- For the israel defense forces
- 00:01:38.488 --> 00:01:40.023
- And currently a senior fellow
- 00:01:40.023 --> 00:01:41.691
- At the foundation for defense of democracies in washington, dc.
- 00:01:41.691 --> 00:01:45.695
- He is a good friend and one of the world's
- 00:01:45.695 --> 00:01:47.897
- Top experts on all things middle east.
- 00:01:47.897 --> 00:01:51.000
- I sat down with him recently in jerusalem
- 00:01:51.000 --> 00:01:53.203
- To break down the current state of play in the region
- 00:01:53.203 --> 00:01:56.973
- And how it affects you.
- 00:01:56.973 --> 00:01:58.841
- Operation rising lion we talk
- 00:01:59.475 --> 00:02:01.744
- About the head of the snake, the iranian regime.
- 00:02:01.744 --> 00:02:04.681
- Stunning victory for israel on many levels.
- 00:02:04.681 --> 00:02:08.318
- Jonathan, talk about the years of planning
- 00:02:08.318 --> 00:02:10.954
- And intelligence work that went into this operation,
- 00:02:10.954 --> 00:02:13.923
- Which really stunned the world and has left the iranian regime
- 00:02:13.923 --> 00:02:17.293
- In many ways in a very, very bad place.
- 00:02:17.293 --> 00:02:20.763
- It's a work in progress.
- 00:02:21.297 --> 00:02:22.599
- It's a milestone and very positive one
- 00:02:22.599 --> 00:02:26.970
- For the free world, for the west,
- 00:02:26.970 --> 00:02:29.839
- For freedom loving countries in the middle east.
- 00:02:29.839 --> 00:02:33.209
- And i think that there was a collective sigh
- 00:02:33.209 --> 00:02:36.546
- Of not only relief, but really astonishment
- 00:02:36.546 --> 00:02:39.816
- With the israeli achievement of actually penetrating
- 00:02:39.816 --> 00:02:44.487
- Iranian airspace, dismantling air defenses, and striking
- 00:02:44.487 --> 00:02:48.591
- Almost all of the components
- 00:02:48.591 --> 00:02:50.493
- Of the iranian nuclear weapons program.
- 00:02:50.493 --> 00:02:53.796
- It was contrary to what many in the region
- 00:02:53.796 --> 00:02:57.600
- And in the world believed would be possible.
- 00:02:57.600 --> 00:03:00.303
- And i can share that.
- 00:03:00.303 --> 00:03:01.738
- I know of threat analysis and assessments,
- 00:03:01.738 --> 00:03:05.341
- Even at the pentagon, that assessed totally different
- 00:03:05.341 --> 00:03:09.245
- Casualty numbers in terms of air crews and planes.
- 00:03:09.245 --> 00:03:13.716
- If israel would do what it did.
- 00:03:13.716 --> 00:03:16.753
- And i'm happy that those assessments were not accurate
- 00:03:16.753 --> 00:03:19.956
- And that israel was able to do what it did to accomplish
- 00:03:19.956 --> 00:03:23.493
- Those very important military achievements
- 00:03:23.493 --> 00:03:26.095
- Without even one er, man or woman being wounded.
- 00:03:26.095 --> 00:03:29.999
- And we had one uav that was shot down
- 00:03:29.999 --> 00:03:33.336
- With no significant results of it, but no manned platforms
- 00:03:33.336 --> 00:03:37.073
- And nothing else of substance
- 00:03:37.073 --> 00:03:38.675
- Really happened against israeli troops.
- 00:03:38.675 --> 00:03:40.310
- And that is that's tremendous.
- 00:03:40.310 --> 00:03:41.811
- That's almost perfect
- 00:03:41.811 --> 00:03:43.279
- And is way beyond what we thought
- 00:03:43.279 --> 00:03:45.014
- That we would be able to accomplish.
- 00:03:45.014 --> 00:03:46.716
- Now, that's a result of many years of planning,
- 00:03:46.716 --> 00:03:51.087
- Of serious, detail oriented intelligence, analysis,
- 00:03:51.087 --> 00:03:55.858
- Of focusing resources on understanding,
- 00:03:55.858 --> 00:03:59.495
- Mapping, analyzing iranian capabilities,
- 00:03:59.495 --> 00:04:02.732
- Their military capabilities, their air defenses.
- 00:04:02.732 --> 00:04:05.368
- Of course, being you know, like a hawk
- 00:04:05.368 --> 00:04:09.005
- On the iranian nuclear program, all of its components, because,
- 00:04:09.005 --> 00:04:13.443
- As we know, it's not about it's usually not about hardware.
- 00:04:13.443 --> 00:04:16.913
- Hardware you can build again, you can acquire again.
- 00:04:16.913 --> 00:04:20.483
- And sadly,
- 00:04:20.483 --> 00:04:21.451
- There are many rogue nations in the world
- 00:04:21.451 --> 00:04:23.720
- That are willing to supply
- 00:04:23.720 --> 00:04:25.054
- The iranian regime with the components
- 00:04:25.054 --> 00:04:27.156
- That they need for the nuclear program.
- 00:04:27.156 --> 00:04:28.958
- China, russia, north korea, pakistan, other countries
- 00:04:28.958 --> 00:04:33.096
- That sadly, recklessly are, you know, fueling madmen
- 00:04:33.096 --> 00:04:38.434
- And giving them the tools, the possible tools for,
- 00:04:38.434 --> 00:04:41.404
- Weapons of mass destruction.
- 00:04:42.004 --> 00:04:43.740
- But, israel, what it what it did, i think, in
- 00:04:43.740 --> 00:04:47.310
- Its wisdom, was to track also the personnel
- 00:04:47.310 --> 00:04:49.912
- And out of the many achievements that israel,
- 00:04:49.912 --> 00:04:53.015
- Was able to accomplish.
- 00:04:53.015 --> 00:04:55.151
- I actually would say that probably the biggest one
- 00:04:55.151 --> 00:04:58.154
- Was the key personnel, the scientists, the scientific
- 00:04:58.154 --> 00:05:02.592
- Minds, the key players of the iranian nuclear program
- 00:05:02.592 --> 00:05:06.062
- That were taken out.
- 00:05:06.062 --> 00:05:07.130
- Nine in the first salvo and then three additional ones
- 00:05:07.130 --> 00:05:11.667
- Important for people back at home to understand
- 00:05:11.667 --> 00:05:13.770
- We're not talking about, civilians.
- 00:05:13.770 --> 00:05:16.372
- These were people who were, working
- 00:05:16.372 --> 00:05:19.809
- For the military, working for the,
- 00:05:19.809 --> 00:05:23.012
- Nuclear weapons program of the islamic republic.
- 00:05:23.012 --> 00:05:26.048
- And who knew extremely well what they were busy developing.
- 00:05:26.048 --> 00:05:29.419
- They knew that they were leaders and managers
- 00:05:29.419 --> 00:05:32.822
- And drivers of iran's nuclear weapons program.
- 00:05:32.822 --> 00:05:36.159
- There were ideologically invested in this idea.
- 00:05:36.159 --> 00:05:38.661
- The iranian oppenheimer's, in a sense, totally invested
- 00:05:38.661 --> 00:05:41.264
- In this in an ideological sense, 100% of the regime.
- 00:05:41.264 --> 00:05:45.134
- And that is why they were a legitimate target.
- 00:05:45.134 --> 00:05:47.403
- And that is also
- 00:05:47.403 --> 00:05:48.538
- Why it's so important that they no longer are around,
- 00:05:48.538 --> 00:05:51.541
- And that centuries of accumulated knowledge,
- 00:05:51.541 --> 00:05:55.111
- Experience and knowhow
- 00:05:55.111 --> 00:05:56.646
- No longer are available to the iranian regime.
- 00:05:56.646 --> 00:05:59.615
- And that means that the iranian nuclear weapons
- 00:05:59.615 --> 00:06:02.452
- Program was really pulled back.
- 00:06:02.452 --> 00:06:04.554
- But at the end of the day, if you don't have people
- 00:06:04.554 --> 00:06:06.389
- Who know what they're doing,
- 00:06:06.389 --> 00:06:07.857
- Then you can have the best centrifuges in the world,
- 00:06:07.857 --> 00:06:10.726
- But you won't get far.
- 00:06:10.726 --> 00:06:11.761
- There's no way to operate it. yeah.
- 00:06:11.761 --> 00:06:13.963
- So so that, i think, is is a very important
- 00:06:13.963 --> 00:06:16.799
- And sometimes overlooked achievement.
- 00:06:16.799 --> 00:06:19.569
- I think mossad,
- 00:06:19.936 --> 00:06:22.138
- You know, there was this tv series tehran,
- 00:06:22.138 --> 00:06:26.409
- By the israeli,
- 00:06:26.776 --> 00:06:28.411
- Broadcaster channel 11, which of course is is fictional.
- 00:06:28.411 --> 00:06:32.315
- But if you look
- 00:06:32.682 --> 00:06:34.383
- At the first episodes of tehran, a fictional tv series,
- 00:06:34.383 --> 00:06:38.221
- And you compare what happened in reality
- 00:06:38.221 --> 00:06:41.691
- In terms of israeli operations and what mossad agents did
- 00:06:41.691 --> 00:06:46.329
- In iran over an extended period of time.
- 00:06:46.329 --> 00:06:49.999
- They built the network, the facilities,
- 00:06:49.999 --> 00:06:53.102
- The safe houses, and everything was in place
- 00:06:53.102 --> 00:06:56.873
- So that when the order was given by the
- 00:06:57.640 --> 00:07:01.577
- Elected echelon in israel, all systems were go
- 00:07:01.577 --> 00:07:04.981
- And all pistons fired in synchronization.
- 00:07:04.981 --> 00:07:09.218
- That's many years of hard work, many years of sacrifice,
- 00:07:09.218 --> 00:07:12.455
- Many years of investment.
- 00:07:12.455 --> 00:07:14.223
- How does that even happen, jonathan,
- 00:07:14.223 --> 00:07:15.658
- For israel to get so entrenched?
- 00:07:15.658 --> 00:07:17.560
- Amazing for the mossad of such assets inside iran.
- 00:07:17.560 --> 00:07:21.230
- And we saw it late july 2024 when ismail haniya, the hamas
- 00:07:21.230 --> 00:07:25.968
- Leader, was eliminated in tehran under the regime's noses.
- 00:07:25.968 --> 00:07:29.805
- Has his mossad accomplished a period of years?
- 00:07:29.805 --> 00:07:32.308
- Of course.
- 00:07:32.308 --> 00:07:33.209
- Is a lot of that due to the discontent
- 00:07:33.209 --> 00:07:35.044
- Of the iranian people against the regime,
- 00:07:35.044 --> 00:07:36.779
- Are willing to work with israel, perhaps against the regime.
- 00:07:36.779 --> 00:07:40.182
- Yes, i think that's part of it.
- 00:07:40.182 --> 00:07:41.651
- It's done, you know, by a lot of creative and hard work,
- 00:07:41.651 --> 00:07:45.354
- Not so glorious, but, you know, creative, hard specific, detail
- 00:07:45.354 --> 00:07:49.659
- Oriented work by men and women of the mossad
- 00:07:49.659 --> 00:07:53.129
- Who have been able
- 00:07:53.129 --> 00:07:54.096
- To penetrate into iran, established networks.
- 00:07:54.096 --> 00:07:57.333
- And that takes a lot of time.
- 00:07:57.333 --> 00:07:58.801
- That's that's years of work.
- 00:07:58.801 --> 00:08:00.703
- And we're not talking about
- 00:08:00.703 --> 00:08:02.071
- Something small and localized in one neighborhood of tehran.
- 00:08:02.071 --> 00:08:05.942
- We're talking about a nationwide network of
- 00:08:05.942 --> 00:08:10.212
- Informers, collaborators,
- 00:08:10.780 --> 00:08:12.782
- Agents, people that really were part of a big system.
- 00:08:12.782 --> 00:08:16.852
- And if i were in israel, an
- 00:08:16.852 --> 00:08:19.622
- Iranian counter intel officer,
- 00:08:19.622 --> 00:08:23.259
- This is their, you know, their pearl harbor.
- 00:08:23.259 --> 00:08:25.561
- This is the blackest day in their history in terms of how
- 00:08:25.561 --> 00:08:30.366
- How badly they were penetrated,
- 00:08:31.000 --> 00:08:33.302
- At what extent and over what period of time.
- 00:08:33.302 --> 00:08:36.305
- We're talking years and we're talking multi-level,
- 00:08:36.305 --> 00:08:40.176
- Various locations not far from teheran.
- 00:08:40.176 --> 00:08:44.614
- And it was done in quite spectacular fashion.
- 00:08:44.614 --> 00:08:47.550
- That was one indication which probably should have sent
- 00:08:47.550 --> 00:08:51.420
- The iranians scrambling and saying,
- 00:08:51.420 --> 00:08:54.690
- Something's wrong here.
- 00:08:54.690 --> 00:08:55.691
- And we have been deeply penetrated.
- 00:08:55.691 --> 00:08:57.460
- It didn't, and i'm thankful for it.
- 00:08:57.460 --> 00:08:59.862
- And, you know, i have a lot of respect for the iranians.
- 00:08:59.862 --> 00:09:02.632
- I have respect for all of my enemies.
- 00:09:02.632 --> 00:09:04.734
- I have respect for the stomach republic.
- 00:09:04.734 --> 00:09:06.535
- I think that they are great,
- 00:09:06.535 --> 00:09:08.504
- Planners.
- 00:09:08.804 --> 00:09:09.472
- I think that they are long term.
- 00:09:09.472 --> 00:09:12.141
- Calculators.
- 00:09:12.141 --> 00:09:13.175
- And i think that had it not been for october 7th,
- 00:09:13.175 --> 00:09:17.079
- They would have had us in in a pickle.
- 00:09:17.079 --> 00:09:19.915
- What i think that got the best of them was hubris.
- 00:09:19.915 --> 00:09:25.421
- I think that they overestimated their own
- 00:09:25.421 --> 00:09:28.658
- Capabilities, underestimated israeli resolve,
- 00:09:28.658 --> 00:09:32.461
- Creativity and stamina, which are three
- 00:09:33.262 --> 00:09:36.165
- Distinctly different things.
- 00:09:36.165 --> 00:09:37.667
- But they underestimated all of them,
- 00:09:37.667 --> 00:09:39.602
- And i think they did the worst thing that any,
- 00:09:39.602 --> 00:09:43.072
- Anybody in combat can do.
- 00:09:43.072 --> 00:09:44.940
- They started to believe their own propaganda,
- 00:09:44.940 --> 00:09:48.077
- And they started to believe that they can defeat israel,
- 00:09:48.077 --> 00:09:51.647
- That by encircling israel
- 00:09:51.647 --> 00:09:53.482
- In a ring of fire with these terrorist
- 00:09:53.482 --> 00:09:55.518
- Organizations, these expendable arabs.
- 00:09:55.518 --> 00:09:58.287
- This is how the iranians see them.
- 00:09:58.287 --> 00:10:00.222
- That's not how i look at them.
- 00:10:00.222 --> 00:10:01.424
- But these this is how iranians look at them,
- 00:10:01.424 --> 00:10:04.193
- That israel was there for the taking,
- 00:10:04.193 --> 00:10:06.128
- That israel was weak enough.
- 00:10:06.128 --> 00:10:07.430
- And with a bit of a push, the iranians could go in
- 00:10:07.430 --> 00:10:11.133
- And finish the zionist entity, as they call israel.
- 00:10:11.133 --> 00:10:14.670
- And i think that was really the beginning of their undoing.
- 00:10:14.670 --> 00:10:18.908
- Up next, jonathan conricus breaks down
- 00:10:19.742 --> 00:10:22.078
- The global shockwaves emanating from iran's
- 00:10:22.078 --> 00:10:25.314
- Now non-existent nuclear program.
- 00:10:25.314 --> 00:10:28.684
- Stick around.
- 00:10:28.684 --> 00:10:31.006
- Stick around.
- 00:10:31.006 --> 00:10:34.190
- The iranian nuclear program.
- 00:10:34.790 --> 00:10:36.859
- Jonathan, we talked about crown jewels.
- 00:10:36.859 --> 00:10:39.028
- That was it for the regime for four decades.
- 00:10:39.028 --> 00:10:41.230
- Of course, president trump gets involved.
- 00:10:41.230 --> 00:10:43.999
- The u.s. joins the fray.
- 00:10:43.999 --> 00:10:45.968
- We'll talk about the ramifications
- 00:10:45.968 --> 00:10:47.603
- Not only for israel, but for the western world
- 00:10:47.603 --> 00:10:50.840
- Of that iranian nuclear threat being eliminated.
- 00:10:50.840 --> 00:10:53.876
- It's a global threat.
- 00:10:54.376 --> 00:10:55.478
- It wasn't just a threat to israel, but to everyone,
- 00:10:55.478 --> 00:10:57.947
- Including america.
- 00:10:57.947 --> 00:10:59.081
- Oh, yeah, it was it was a global threat.
- 00:10:59.081 --> 00:11:01.584
- And i think it was recognized as a global threat
- 00:11:01.584 --> 00:11:03.953
- Because there were sanctions against iran.
- 00:11:03.953 --> 00:11:06.956
- Hopefully today, the sanctions will be snapped back
- 00:11:06.956 --> 00:11:10.659
- And will be again applied on iran
- 00:11:10.659 --> 00:11:13.429
- Because they are refusing
- 00:11:13.429 --> 00:11:15.397
- To stop their nuclear weapons program.
- 00:11:15.397 --> 00:11:18.801
- Now to disambiguate here nuclear weapons,
- 00:11:18.801 --> 00:11:22.972
- It can only be obtained by iran if they have the ability
- 00:11:22.972 --> 00:11:26.842
- To enrich clandestinely on iranian soil.
- 00:11:26.842 --> 00:11:30.746
- And the iranians, even though reality has changed
- 00:11:30.746 --> 00:11:33.549
- Since operation rising lion, and america's,
- 00:11:33.549 --> 00:11:38.754
- Final blow to their nuclear capabilities.
- 00:11:38.754 --> 00:11:41.357
- Reality changed.
- 00:11:41.357 --> 00:11:42.892
- But the iranian leadership doesn't
- 00:11:42.892 --> 00:11:44.794
- Seem to compute and understand that reality has changed.
- 00:11:44.794 --> 00:11:47.897
- And they continue to to bargain and to deal as if they're still
- 00:11:47.897 --> 00:11:53.502
- In the same, driving position that they were pre october 7th.
- 00:11:53.502 --> 00:11:57.740
- They aren't.
- 00:11:57.740 --> 00:11:58.974
- And i think they are going to find that not only is the west
- 00:11:58.974 --> 00:12:03.512
- Really focused and committed to not allowing them ever
- 00:12:03.512 --> 00:12:07.783
- To have nuclear weapons capabilities,
- 00:12:07.783 --> 00:12:10.052
- But that they are much more exposed.
- 00:12:10.052 --> 00:12:12.021
- And if they continue to hardball,
- 00:12:12.021 --> 00:12:14.123
- They will face two things sanctions,
- 00:12:14.123 --> 00:12:16.525
- Which could be crippling
- 00:12:16.525 --> 00:12:18.460
- For an already very weak and exposed economy.
- 00:12:18.460 --> 00:12:22.398
- And two,
- 00:12:22.665 --> 00:12:23.465
- They could face additional israeli
- 00:12:23.465 --> 00:12:25.467
- Military action against them
- 00:12:25.467 --> 00:12:27.036
- If they continue to try to develop nuclear weapons.
- 00:12:27.036 --> 00:12:30.372
- And i'm not entirely sure that they really grasp
- 00:12:30.372 --> 00:12:33.309
- The severity of the situation.
- 00:12:33.309 --> 00:12:35.611
- I still see a lot of hubris.
- 00:12:35.611 --> 00:12:37.613
- I still see this condescending iranian behavior
- 00:12:37.613 --> 00:12:41.383
- Lecturing everybody and telling
- 00:12:41.383 --> 00:12:43.352
- Everybody and speaking, you know, very high language
- 00:12:43.352 --> 00:12:46.522
- About law and order and international law and civil
- 00:12:46.522 --> 00:12:49.992
- Rights and all kinds of things that, you know, it's bizarre
- 00:12:49.992 --> 00:12:52.928
- To hear it from a dictatorship that oppresses its own people.
- 00:12:52.928 --> 00:12:56.899
- And basically is a failing state.
- 00:12:56.899 --> 00:12:59.568
- You look at iran today, the islamic republic of iran.
- 00:12:59.568 --> 00:13:02.404
- This is a country that is failing to provide its citizens.
- 00:13:02.404 --> 00:13:06.075
- We're talking about almost 100 million people
- 00:13:06.075 --> 00:13:09.078
- With the very basic needs for a normal life.
- 00:13:09.078 --> 00:13:12.948
- Water and electricity.
- 00:13:12.948 --> 00:13:14.783
- Iran today due to corruption and mismanagement,
- 00:13:14.783 --> 00:13:19.288
- Even though this is an oil rich and gas rich country
- 00:13:19.288 --> 00:13:22.558
- That i think they have the third or the fourth largest,
- 00:13:22.558 --> 00:13:25.561
- Deposits of of gas and oil in the world by all standards.
- 00:13:25.561 --> 00:13:30.332
- They should be super rich and they should be affluent,
- 00:13:30.332 --> 00:13:33.435
- And nobody in iran should want for anything.
- 00:13:33.435 --> 00:13:36.472
- If they manage their resources correctly, they don't.
- 00:13:36.472 --> 00:13:39.675
- Their priorities are terror.
- 00:13:39.675 --> 00:13:42.077
- It is funding terror organizations around the world.
- 00:13:42.077 --> 00:13:44.480
- It is building nuclear weapons.
- 00:13:44.480 --> 00:13:46.015
- It's destabilizing the middle east.
- 00:13:46.015 --> 00:13:47.716
- And that's what they've been focusing on
- 00:13:47.716 --> 00:13:49.285
- For the better part of 25 years now.
- 00:13:49.285 --> 00:13:52.421
- The chickens are coming home to roost,
- 00:13:52.421 --> 00:13:54.256
- And the consequences, sadly, are felt by iranian civilians.
- 00:13:54.256 --> 00:13:58.294
- Iran is running out of water.
- 00:13:58.294 --> 00:13:59.962
- They struggle to provide electricity.
- 00:13:59.962 --> 00:14:02.331
- There are, planned, controlled,
- 00:14:02.331 --> 00:14:06.201
- Outages of electricity every day
- 00:14:06.835 --> 00:14:09.405
- In all of iran's cities, including the capital, tehran.
- 00:14:09.405 --> 00:14:13.609
- They struggle to keep factories open.
- 00:14:13.609 --> 00:14:15.411
- They struggle to keep government offices open.
- 00:14:15.411 --> 00:14:17.680
- And their kids
- 00:14:17.680 --> 00:14:19.081
- Can't go to school in the warm or the cold months,
- 00:14:19.081 --> 00:14:22.851
- Because there's no electricity for heating or ventilating.
- 00:14:22.851 --> 00:14:26.388
- It's a disaster.
- 00:14:26.388 --> 00:14:27.423
- It is a disaster, and it's a manmade disaster
- 00:14:27.423 --> 00:14:29.858
- That was focused on, you know, this this whole
- 00:14:29.858 --> 00:14:33.429
- Iranian expansionist, imperialist endeavor.
- 00:14:33.429 --> 00:14:36.832
- And sadly, the people who face the consequences
- 00:14:36.832 --> 00:14:39.234
- Are the people on the ground, the iranians,
- 00:14:39.234 --> 00:14:41.270
- Who probably have very little to do and very little sympathy
- 00:14:41.270 --> 00:14:45.074
- For what this crazy extremist regime
- 00:14:45.074 --> 00:14:48.210
- Has been doing, over such a long period of time.
- 00:14:48.210 --> 00:14:51.747
- And i think that the iranian people eventually
- 00:14:51.747 --> 00:14:54.616
- Will rise
- 00:14:54.616 --> 00:14:55.784
- Up against the iranian regime, reclaim their own future.
- 00:14:55.784 --> 00:14:59.121
- When they do.
- 00:14:59.121 --> 00:15:00.289
- I think that will be a very positive moment,
- 00:15:00.289 --> 00:15:03.592
- For the middle east, for the iranian people,
- 00:15:03.592 --> 00:15:06.095
- Definitely for israel,
- 00:15:06.095 --> 00:15:07.329
- Because even though we're in a better situation today,
- 00:15:07.329 --> 00:15:10.699
- In terms of where we stand, in terms of our enemies,
- 00:15:10.699 --> 00:15:13.736
- We are still threatened by the remains of, iranian,
- 00:15:13.736 --> 00:15:19.675
- Iranian terror against israel.
- 00:15:20.275 --> 00:15:21.844
- We are still fighting hamas.
- 00:15:21.844 --> 00:15:23.512
- I haven't finished yet.
- 00:15:23.512 --> 00:15:24.947
- It is still exists.
- 00:15:24.947 --> 00:15:26.415
- And there are threats
- 00:15:26.415 --> 00:15:27.616
- That are up and coming in, in jordan and iran.
- 00:15:27.616 --> 00:15:32.621
- The regime still, in terms of its goals and priorities,
- 00:15:32.621 --> 00:15:36.091
- They are focusing
- 00:15:36.091 --> 00:15:37.159
- On fighting against israel, even though they're
- 00:15:37.159 --> 00:15:39.795
- A thousand miles away. we don't share a border.
- 00:15:39.795 --> 00:15:42.031
- We haven't, you know, never fought them in history.
- 00:15:42.031 --> 00:15:44.166
- We have no land issues, no nothing.
- 00:15:44.166 --> 00:15:46.101
- One wonders why do they care?
- 00:15:46.101 --> 00:15:48.103
- And why are they so fixated with trying to annihilate israel?
- 00:15:48.103 --> 00:15:52.274
- They have. here they are.
- 00:15:52.274 --> 00:15:53.575
- So we're in a good place, but the work isn't done.
- 00:15:53.575 --> 00:15:57.980
- Coming up after the break, johnson
- 00:15:58.714 --> 00:16:00.416
- Lays out the trump effect, how the president's policies
- 00:16:00.416 --> 00:16:03.752
- Have remade the middle east and what that means for america.
- 00:16:03.752 --> 00:16:07.556
- Don't move.
- 00:16:07.890 --> 00:16:11.004
- Don't move.
- 00:16:11.004 --> 00:16:14.465
- You talk about the trump effect
- 00:16:15.099 --> 00:16:17.201
- Back in office, of course, january 2025.
- 00:16:17.201 --> 00:16:20.604
- In general, in the region and in particular
- 00:16:20.604 --> 00:16:23.274
- When it comes to iran and the nuclear project in iran,
- 00:16:23.274 --> 00:16:26.343
- Obviously took decisive action alongside israel.
- 00:16:26.343 --> 00:16:29.280
- Talk a bit more about his impact in the region.
- 00:16:29.280 --> 00:16:32.149
- You know, i remember very clearly i was,
- 00:16:32.149 --> 00:16:35.052
- Idf's international spokesperson,
- 00:16:35.052 --> 00:16:37.688
- When cousin soleimani was eliminated by the us.
- 00:16:37.688 --> 00:16:41.892
- And i remember the barrage of questions,
- 00:16:41.892 --> 00:16:45.729
- At the time from international media, the new york
- 00:16:45.729 --> 00:16:48.332
- Times and cnn and everybody were calling.
- 00:16:48.332 --> 00:16:51.602
- And they were, of course, beside themselves
- 00:16:51.602 --> 00:16:55.139
- With excitement, fear,
- 00:16:55.139 --> 00:16:58.676
- Finger pointing.
- 00:16:59.076 --> 00:17:00.511
- And the general headline was the president trump.
- 00:17:00.511 --> 00:17:03.647
- First presidency has now provoked world war three
- 00:17:03.647 --> 00:17:08.185
- By taking out this mega terrorist
- 00:17:08.185 --> 00:17:10.955
- With with buckets of american blood on his hands.
- 00:17:10.955 --> 00:17:14.358
- And i responded at the time that.
- 00:17:14.358 --> 00:17:15.893
- No, listen, you've got it wrong.
- 00:17:15.893 --> 00:17:17.495
- This was an act of stability and peace.
- 00:17:17.495 --> 00:17:21.165
- This was preventive action, not only payback for american
- 00:17:21.165 --> 00:17:25.269
- Blood that this terrorist had shed over so many years,
- 00:17:25.269 --> 00:17:29.607
- But this was really an extremely
- 00:17:29.607 --> 00:17:32.710
- Important preventive measure because custom
- 00:17:32.710 --> 00:17:36.180
- Soleimani was a brilliant terrorist mastermind.
- 00:17:36.180 --> 00:17:40.151
- He really had very strong, compelling charisma,
- 00:17:40.151 --> 00:17:43.721
- And he was a leader
- 00:17:43.721 --> 00:17:45.322
- That commanded iranian forces in the region.
- 00:17:45.322 --> 00:17:49.059
- When president trump decided to take him out.
- 00:17:49.059 --> 00:17:52.296
- That was first, a very brave decision.
- 00:17:52.296 --> 00:17:55.232
- And i think that it's difficult to say, you know,
- 00:17:55.232 --> 00:17:58.836
- What if but i struggle to see the positive things
- 00:17:58.836 --> 00:18:03.107
- That we have witnessed since october 7th playing out
- 00:18:03.107 --> 00:18:07.011
- As well as they have had custom, soleimani still been alive.
- 00:18:07.011 --> 00:18:11.215
- And had he been quarterbacking or along the sidelines
- 00:18:11.215 --> 00:18:15.019
- Of the iranian war machine.
- 00:18:15.019 --> 00:18:16.820
- So that's credit number one.
- 00:18:16.820 --> 00:18:18.322
- And that is president trump going against a lot of
- 00:18:18.322 --> 00:18:22.693
- Established knowledge and advice and saying,
- 00:18:22.693 --> 00:18:26.197
- No, this is a bad guy. he needs to be taken out.
- 00:18:26.197 --> 00:18:28.999
- He's killed americans. he's a bad guy.
- 00:18:28.999 --> 00:18:30.901
- He does bad things and he needs to be gone.
- 00:18:30.901 --> 00:18:33.270
- And he and the us took him out.
- 00:18:33.270 --> 00:18:35.472
- So that's number one. number two.
- 00:18:35.472 --> 00:18:39.476
- Not enough credit has been given.
- 00:18:40.177 --> 00:18:43.214
- And i think that there are still people who undermine
- 00:18:43.214 --> 00:18:47.084
- The cleverness and fitness of president trump.
- 00:18:47.084 --> 00:18:52.156
- Many people belittle and think that
- 00:18:52.156 --> 00:18:55.726
- Because of his style of communication
- 00:18:55.726 --> 00:18:58.996
- And the way that he is forthcoming and approachable,
- 00:18:58.996 --> 00:19:03.968
- That he isn't extremely cunning and smart.
- 00:19:03.968 --> 00:19:07.805
- And what i think that the iranians did
- 00:19:07.805 --> 00:19:10.641
- Was to believe that they had him,
- 00:19:10.641 --> 00:19:13.544
- That they had his number, that they could figure him out
- 00:19:13.544 --> 00:19:16.413
- And that he wasn't going to surprise them,
- 00:19:16.413 --> 00:19:18.515
- When in fact, what happened was that the us and israel
- 00:19:18.515 --> 00:19:22.753
- Were coordinated extremely well and in fact, were able to lull
- 00:19:22.753 --> 00:19:28.692
- The islamic regime into a false sense of security
- 00:19:28.692 --> 00:19:32.263
- By conducting negotiations,
- 00:19:32.263 --> 00:19:34.198
- But by having a military option ready.
- 00:19:34.198 --> 00:19:36.900
- The moment that the presidential deadline expired, they 61,
- 00:19:36.900 --> 00:19:42.806
- When the president said, you have 60 days
- 00:19:42.806 --> 00:19:45.442
- And i come to you in good faith if we do progress here,
- 00:19:45.442 --> 00:19:48.545
- And if you, the iranians, start to show me that you're willing
- 00:19:48.545 --> 00:19:52.283
- To stop
- 00:19:52.283 --> 00:19:53.484
- Developing nuclear weapons, and if i sense that there's
- 00:19:53.484 --> 00:19:56.186
- Progress to be made, i will tell the israelis to stand down.
- 00:19:56.186 --> 00:20:00.791
- And i believe that they would have done it, by the way.
- 00:20:00.791 --> 00:20:03.160
- But the iranians, full of hubris, didn't.
- 00:20:03.160 --> 00:20:06.096
- And they thought that
- 00:20:06.096 --> 00:20:07.431
- Negotiations were an effective shield
- 00:20:07.431 --> 00:20:10.367
- Against any military attack by israel.
- 00:20:10.367 --> 00:20:13.637
- And what president trump did was to outsmart the iranians.
- 00:20:13.637 --> 00:20:17.775
- And i think that's it was a brilliant move.
- 00:20:17.775 --> 00:20:19.843
- And i don't think that,
- 00:20:19.843 --> 00:20:21.712
- Operation rising line would have happened.
- 00:20:21.712 --> 00:20:24.214
- Definitely not the level of success that it had
- 00:20:24.214 --> 00:20:26.750
- Had it not been for that level of fitness.
- 00:20:26.750 --> 00:20:30.521
- Which was crucial in the beginning.
- 00:20:30.521 --> 00:20:32.356
- They, the iranians, the supreme command,
- 00:20:32.356 --> 00:20:35.626
- The military leadership, the revolutionary guard,
- 00:20:35.626 --> 00:20:38.662
- Their air defenses, their nuclear scientist
- 00:20:38.662 --> 00:20:41.131
- Were all caught off guard because they thought that they
- 00:20:41.131 --> 00:20:44.902
- Were safe.
- 00:20:44.902 --> 00:20:46.070
- And, the leadership of president trump, the
- 00:20:46.070 --> 00:20:51.575
- What he what he helped and facilitate that israel to do
- 00:20:51.575 --> 00:20:56.180
- With providing israel with weapons and platforms
- 00:20:56.180 --> 00:20:59.683
- And political cover,
- 00:20:59.683 --> 00:21:01.885
- I think is historic.
- 00:21:02.353 --> 00:21:03.987
- I think
- 00:21:03.987 --> 00:21:05.222
- This will go down in history as one of the most consequential
- 00:21:05.222 --> 00:21:08.425
- Decisions, military decisions by u.s.
- 00:21:08.425 --> 00:21:10.828
- Presidents since world war two,
- 00:21:10.828 --> 00:21:12.763
- Preventing nuclear weapons from a crazy, murderous regime.
- 00:21:12.763 --> 00:21:16.967
- I think is a very commendable and worthy goal.
- 00:21:16.967 --> 00:21:21.038
- Even with the benefit of hindsight,
- 00:21:21.038 --> 00:21:23.207
- We look at the decisions made in real time by the president.
- 00:21:23.207 --> 00:21:26.076
- They were very, very good. they were excellent,
- 00:21:26.076 --> 00:21:28.812
- They were brave and they were correct.
- 00:21:28.812 --> 00:21:30.948
- They were moral and they were accurate.
- 00:21:30.948 --> 00:21:33.684
- And those are exactly the types of decisions
- 00:21:33.684 --> 00:21:35.786
- That we expect from elected leaders,
- 00:21:35.786 --> 00:21:38.922
- To make tough decisions, to be willing to,
- 00:21:38.922 --> 00:21:42.092
- Face consequences and risk things,
- 00:21:42.092 --> 00:21:43.994
- But to do it for a good cause.
- 00:21:43.994 --> 00:21:45.262
- And that's what president trump did.
- 00:21:45.262 --> 00:21:47.064
- And i think in israel and in the region, saudi arabia, jordan,
- 00:21:47.064 --> 00:21:53.036
- In syria
- 00:21:53.303 --> 00:21:54.405
- Now, egypt and many other places, the gulf states,
- 00:21:54.405 --> 00:21:57.207
- Of course, they look at that and they say these were this is,
- 00:21:57.207 --> 00:22:01.945
- These are read decisions by real leader.
- 00:22:01.945 --> 00:22:05.416
- Thanks again to our good friend jonathan conricus
- 00:22:05.416 --> 00:22:07.651
- For that incredible break down, folks.
- 00:22:07.651 --> 00:22:09.820
- Be sure to follow jonathan on ecs and across social media.
- 00:22:09.820 --> 00:22:13.357
- Coming up after the break, my final thoughts again on where
- 00:22:13.357 --> 00:22:17.227
- We are today in the middle east and what comes next.
- 00:22:17.227 --> 00:22:21.064
- Stick around.
- 00:22:21.432 --> 00:22:24.003
- Stick around.
- 00:22:24.003 --> 00:22:26.937
- Welcome back to sstakelbeck tonight, folks.
- 00:22:27.838 --> 00:22:29.506
- What a great break down from jonathan conricus tonight.
- 00:22:29.506 --> 00:22:31.909
- If you like middle east
- 00:22:31.909 --> 00:22:33.110
- News from an unapologetically biblical perspective,
- 00:22:33.110 --> 00:22:36.280
- Be sure to check out my youtube channel, watchmen tv.com.
- 00:22:36.280 --> 00:22:39.683
- We are fast approaching
- 00:22:39.683 --> 00:22:40.884
- 1.1 million subscribers for such a time as this.
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- We would love for you to join us there.
- 00:22:44.688 --> 00:22:46.390
- It's absolutely free, so be sure to subscribe on youtube!
- 00:22:46.390 --> 00:22:49.893
- Hey, when i think of the future of the middle east
- 00:22:49.893 --> 00:22:51.962
- And potential peace there, only the prince of peace jesus
- 00:22:51.962 --> 00:22:55.966
- Will bring it.
- 00:22:55.966 --> 00:22:56.633
- God talks about this
- 00:22:56.633 --> 00:22:57.968
- In the book of isaiah, chapter two verse four.
- 00:22:57.968 --> 00:23:00.304
- He will judge between the nations
- 00:23:00.304 --> 00:23:02.639
- And will settle disputes for many peoples.
- 00:23:02.639 --> 00:23:04.842
- They will beat their swords into plowshares
- 00:23:04.842 --> 00:23:07.377
- And their spears into pruning hooks.
- 00:23:07.377 --> 00:23:09.780
- Nation will not take up sword against nation,
- 00:23:09.780 --> 00:23:12.916
- Nor will they train for war anymore.
- 00:23:12.916 --> 00:23:15.619
- Amen. we look to that day.
- 00:23:15.619 --> 00:23:17.521
- Hey, speaking of israel, tomorrow
- 00:23:17.521 --> 00:23:19.423
- We will be in the valley of he known in jerusalem.
- 00:23:19.423 --> 00:23:22.493
- Folks, you will not want to miss this until then.
- 00:23:22.493 --> 00:23:25.696
- God bless you. we'll see you soon.
- 00:23:25.696 --> 00:23:25.696
