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Stakelbeck Tonight

Erick Stakelbeck: June 15, 2026 | Stakelbeck Tonight

June 15, 2026 | 23:29

Erick Stakelbeck: June 15, 2026 | Stakelbeck Tonight
From wars and rumors of war abroad, to the rise of anti-Christian, "woke" ideology here at home, it's clear that Americans are living in perilous and unprecedented times. Some would even say that we're witnessing biblical prophecy unfold in real time. Stakelbeck Tonight will make sense of these stunning developments through a bold and biblical lens.
#News #Economy #Government #War #Leadership #Military #Strength #Terrorism #Israel #Responsibility #ErickStakelbeck

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Stakelbeck Tonight | Erick Stakelbeck: June 15, 2026 | Stakelbeck Tonight | June 15, 2026
  • Welcome to stakelbeck tonight.
  • 00:00:17.674 --> 00:00:19.609
  • I'm erick stakelbeck and it's been said many times
  • 00:00:19.609 --> 00:00:23.113
  • Over the past few months that iran has never won a war,
  • 00:00:23.113 --> 00:00:27.917
  • But has never lost a negotiation for 47 years.
  • 00:00:27.917 --> 00:00:32.222
  • That has been the case.
  • 00:00:32.222 --> 00:00:34.290
  • But can president trump break the pattern
  • 00:00:34.290 --> 00:00:36.893
  • With the new peace deal that he announced on sunday?
  • 00:00:36.893 --> 00:00:40.096
  • We're about to find out now in terms of iran's regime
  • 00:00:40.096 --> 00:00:43.533
  • Never winning a war.
  • 00:00:43.533 --> 00:00:45.001
  • Folks, we just watched the united states and israel
  • 00:00:45.001 --> 00:00:47.971
  • Destroy iran's air force, navy, air defenses and nuclear sites,
  • 00:00:47.971 --> 00:00:53.309
  • Eliminate most of its senior leaders, and enforce
  • 00:00:53.309 --> 00:00:56.779
  • A naval blockade that's left iran's economy in tatters.
  • 00:00:56.779 --> 00:01:01.184
  • The iranian regime has been exposed as a paper tiger.
  • 00:01:01.184 --> 00:01:05.221
  • Lots of bluster and threats, but not a whole lot of bite.
  • 00:01:05.221 --> 00:01:10.026
  • The mad mullahs were completely overwhelmed by the joint u.s.
  • 00:01:10.026 --> 00:01:13.930
  • Israeli operation.
  • 00:01:13.930 --> 00:01:15.265
  • The u.s.
  • 00:01:15.265 --> 00:01:15.765
  • Called it operation
  • 00:01:15.765 --> 00:01:17.233
  • Epic fury, and israel dubbed it operation roaring lion.
  • 00:01:17.233 --> 00:01:21.037
  • But no matter what you call it, iran was the clear
  • 00:01:21.037 --> 00:01:25.008
  • Loser in the kinetic shooting war.
  • 00:01:25.008 --> 00:01:28.545
  • Then came the ceasefire that went into effect on april 8th
  • 00:01:28.545 --> 00:01:32.649
  • And the negotiations that followed, culminating
  • 00:01:32.649 --> 00:01:36.019
  • In a memorandum of understanding that the u.s.
  • 00:01:36.019 --> 00:01:38.521
  • And iran agreed to yesterday.
  • 00:01:38.521 --> 00:01:40.557
  • Now, that's a key point.
  • 00:01:40.557 --> 00:01:42.025
  • We do not yet have a finalized iran deal.
  • 00:01:42.025 --> 00:01:46.095
  • Yes, the strait of hormuz is now set to gradually reopen,
  • 00:01:46.095 --> 00:01:50.767
  • And the u.s.
  • 00:01:51.100 --> 00:01:52.035
  • Has pledged to lift its naval blockade.
  • 00:01:52.035 --> 00:01:54.871
  • And both sides
  • 00:01:54.871 --> 00:01:55.905
  • Have agreed to end all military action immediately.
  • 00:01:55.905 --> 00:01:59.342
  • But again,
  • 00:01:59.342 --> 00:02:00.577
  • This is a memorandum of understanding, not a final deal.
  • 00:02:00.577 --> 00:02:05.348
  • What the memorandum does is extend negotiations
  • 00:02:05.348 --> 00:02:09.219
  • Between the u.s.
  • 00:02:09.219 --> 00:02:10.119
  • And iran for an additional 60 days.
  • 00:02:10.119 --> 00:02:13.523
  • Only then potentially would we have a final deal.
  • 00:02:13.523 --> 00:02:17.694
  • A deal which will only come if the iranian regime changes
  • 00:02:17.694 --> 00:02:22.065
  • Its behavior
  • 00:02:22.065 --> 00:02:23.399
  • And makes some major concessions over that 60 day period.
  • 00:02:23.399 --> 00:02:28.204
  • Folks, color me skeptical.
  • 00:02:28.204 --> 00:02:31.140
  • We have a 47 year sample size
  • 00:02:31.140 --> 00:02:34.110
  • Of iran breaking agreement after agreement, as it pursues
  • 00:02:34.110 --> 00:02:38.047
  • Its apocalyptic islamic jihadist vision.
  • 00:02:38.047 --> 00:02:41.884
  • This leopard will not change its spots.
  • 00:02:41.884 --> 00:02:45.154
  • That's why i've been very clear that i believe the u.s.
  • 00:02:45.154 --> 00:02:48.157
  • Should have finished the job militarily
  • 00:02:48.157 --> 00:02:51.094
  • Before the cease fire went into effect.
  • 00:02:51.094 --> 00:02:53.329
  • The regime was on the ropes
  • 00:02:53.329 --> 00:02:54.764
  • And teetering on the brink of collapse.
  • 00:02:54.764 --> 00:02:57.367
  • Thanks to an incredible display of strength by the u.s.
  • 00:02:57.367 --> 00:03:00.737
  • And israeli militaries.
  • 00:03:00.737 --> 00:03:02.605
  • Iran's islamic dictatorship has been weakened
  • 00:03:02.605 --> 00:03:06.042
  • So badly that it may still collapse, god willing.
  • 00:03:06.042 --> 00:03:09.946
  • But in the meantime, a signing ceremony is set to take place
  • 00:03:09.946 --> 00:03:13.983
  • This friday, june 19th, in switzerland.
  • 00:03:13.983 --> 00:03:17.287
  • Vice president vance, who's been referred to as the architect
  • 00:03:17.287 --> 00:03:20.990
  • Of the iran deal along with the president's
  • 00:03:20.990 --> 00:03:23.526
  • Middle east envoy, steve with coffin.
  • 00:03:23.526 --> 00:03:25.695
  • Jared kushner says the deal gives iran's regime
  • 00:03:25.695 --> 00:03:28.965
  • One last, very undeserved chance.
  • 00:03:28.965 --> 00:03:32.802
  • Watch.
  • 00:03:33.002 --> 00:03:33.803
  • I think the most important
  • 00:03:34.370 --> 00:03:35.371
  • Thing for the american people to appreciate
  • 00:03:35.371 --> 00:03:36.939
  • Is that what this agreement does is really twofold.
  • 00:03:36.939 --> 00:03:39.008
  • On the one hand,
  • 00:03:39.008 --> 00:03:40.109
  • It ensures that iran will never have a nuclear weapon
  • 00:03:40.109 --> 00:03:42.612
  • While simultaneously opening the strait of hormuz.
  • 00:03:42.612 --> 00:03:45.315
  • You already see oil prices from a high of $126
  • 00:03:45.315 --> 00:03:49.152
  • A barrel, down to about $80 a barrel today.
  • 00:03:49.152 --> 00:03:52.021
  • That's that's a lot of progress.
  • 00:03:52.021 --> 00:03:53.756
  • But it also
  • 00:03:53.756 --> 00:03:55.124
  • Fundamentally extends a hand to iran and says, look,
  • 00:03:55.124 --> 00:03:58.795
  • If you guys are willing to honor your obligations,
  • 00:03:58.795 --> 00:04:01.597
  • If you're allowed,
  • 00:04:01.597 --> 00:04:02.332
  • If you're willing
  • 00:04:02.332 --> 00:04:03.433
  • To allow real inspections of your nuclear program,
  • 00:04:03.433 --> 00:04:05.935
  • Then we will welcome you back into the world economy.
  • 00:04:05.935 --> 00:04:08.371
  • I think what the president of the united states wants to do
  • 00:04:08.371 --> 00:04:11.107
  • Is turn over a leaf of 47 years of a failed relationship
  • 00:04:11.107 --> 00:04:15.311
  • Between the united states and iran,
  • 00:04:15.311 --> 00:04:17.180
  • But that requires the iranians to actually honor
  • 00:04:17.180 --> 00:04:20.249
  • Their end of the bargain,
  • 00:04:20.249 --> 00:04:22.552
  • Which they have never done.
  • 00:04:23.152 --> 00:04:25.988
  • They've been offered the opportunity
  • 00:04:25.988 --> 00:04:27.423
  • To change their ways many times over the years.
  • 00:04:27.423 --> 00:04:30.026
  • And let's just say
  • 00:04:30.026 --> 00:04:31.127
  • They've not so politely declined each and every time.
  • 00:04:31.127 --> 00:04:35.498
  • We still don't know what exactly is in this iran deal.
  • 00:04:35.498 --> 00:04:38.701
  • By the way, vice president vance says the full text
  • 00:04:38.701 --> 00:04:41.971
  • Will be released this week so the american people can see it.
  • 00:04:41.971 --> 00:04:45.875
  • According to the administration, it guarantees
  • 00:04:45.875 --> 00:04:48.811
  • That iran will never acquire nuclear weapons.
  • 00:04:48.811 --> 00:04:51.814
  • I assume it will also include the removal
  • 00:04:51.814 --> 00:04:54.450
  • Of enriched uranium from iranian soil.
  • 00:04:54.450 --> 00:04:57.687
  • And i pray it does something about iran's ballistic missile
  • 00:04:57.687 --> 00:05:01.724
  • Program and support for terror groups like hezbollah.
  • 00:05:01.724 --> 00:05:05.995
  • Here was president trump earlier today
  • 00:05:05.995 --> 00:05:07.830
  • During a meeting with french president emmanuel macron.
  • 00:05:07.830 --> 00:05:11.501
  • And the main thing is that iran will not have a nuclear weapon.
  • 00:05:11.501 --> 00:05:14.670
  • They fully agree to that
  • 00:05:14.670 --> 00:05:16.172
  • With strong policing powers, and
  • 00:05:16.806 --> 00:05:19.208
  • They will not
  • 00:05:19.208 --> 00:05:20.309
  • Have a nuclear weapon, which is what it was all about,
  • 00:05:20.309 --> 00:05:22.678
  • Because that's probably what he used to live there as.
  • 00:05:22.678 --> 00:05:27.150
  • One important aspect of the deal
  • 00:05:27.784 --> 00:05:29.952
  • That we've seen conflicting reports about is
  • 00:05:29.952 --> 00:05:32.955
  • That iran will not receive any form of sanctions relief
  • 00:05:32.955 --> 00:05:36.826
  • Unless it
  • 00:05:37.126 --> 00:05:38.294
  • First changes its behavior and follows the requirements
  • 00:05:38.294 --> 00:05:41.697
  • Of the memorandum of understanding.
  • 00:05:41.697 --> 00:05:43.666
  • That would be a big difference from the obama iran
  • 00:05:43.666 --> 00:05:46.736
  • Deal of 2015, which gift wrapped the regime billions of dollars
  • 00:05:46.736 --> 00:05:51.541
  • In sanctions relief with no strings attached.
  • 00:05:51.541 --> 00:05:54.944
  • Trump rightly pulled out of that disastrous obama deal.
  • 00:05:54.944 --> 00:05:58.714
  • Here he was today, doubling down on that point
  • 00:05:58.714 --> 00:06:01.584
  • During his meeting with macron.
  • 00:06:01.584 --> 00:06:03.219
  • Watch this.
  • 00:06:03.219 --> 00:06:04.253
  • The president does the deal, breaking the law.
  • 00:06:04.253 --> 00:06:06.656
  • Of any station relief or.
  • 00:06:06.656 --> 00:06:08.090
  • Iran with anger and delight, as in, while they have 2
  • 00:06:08.090 --> 00:06:11.427
  • Trillion behavioral they if they do
  • 00:06:11.427 --> 00:06:15.264
  • What they're supposed to do, that's such second attacks.
  • 00:06:15.264 --> 00:06:19.268
  • Trump is in france this week to take part in the g7 summit
  • 00:06:20.436 --> 00:06:23.706
  • With the leaders of canada, france, the uk, germany, italy
  • 00:06:23.706 --> 00:06:26.943
  • And japan, and iran will be at the top of their agenda.
  • 00:06:26.943 --> 00:06:31.247
  • The president hopped on a flight late last night
  • 00:06:31.247 --> 00:06:33.349
  • After celebrating his 80th birthday at the white house
  • 00:06:33.349 --> 00:06:36.452
  • With a hard hitting ufc event that took place hours
  • 00:06:36.452 --> 00:06:39.689
  • After some hard hitting words from trump towards israeli prime
  • 00:06:39.689 --> 00:06:44.260
  • Minister benjamin netanyahu as part of the iran deal.
  • 00:06:44.260 --> 00:06:48.030
  • There was also a cease fire between israel and hezbollah,
  • 00:06:48.030 --> 00:06:51.901
  • But hezbollah continues attacking israel.
  • 00:06:51.901 --> 00:06:55.738
  • Shocking i know.
  • 00:06:55.738 --> 00:06:57.373
  • So israel response.
  • 00:06:57.373 --> 00:06:59.408
  • And that made trump upset as he was trying to finalize
  • 00:06:59.408 --> 00:07:03.179
  • The iran deal.
  • 00:07:03.179 --> 00:07:04.313
  • Remember,
  • 00:07:04.313 --> 00:07:05.448
  • Israel is not bound by the deal, which is only between
  • 00:07:05.448 --> 00:07:09.685
  • The united states and iran, not israel.
  • 00:07:09.685 --> 00:07:13.422
  • Has vowed that if israel is struck by iran
  • 00:07:13.422 --> 00:07:16.025
  • And hezbollah, the idf will strike back.
  • 00:07:16.025 --> 00:07:19.629
  • Amen. we would do the same thing.
  • 00:07:19.629 --> 00:07:22.765
  • But what does this all mean for the u.s.
  • 00:07:22.765 --> 00:07:25.101
  • Israel alliance and the future of the region?
  • 00:07:25.101 --> 00:07:28.504
  • We get the inside story from top middle east expert jonathan
  • 00:07:28.504 --> 00:07:31.707
  • Schanzer. next.
  • 00:07:31.707 --> 00:07:35.007
  • Schanzer. next.
  • 00:07:35.007 --> 00:07:38.484
  • President trump says the deal is done.
  • 00:07:39.318 --> 00:07:42.588
  • Iran says it survived.
  • 00:07:42.588 --> 00:07:44.957
  • And while washington is celebrating
  • 00:07:44.957 --> 00:07:46.725
  • What it calls a breakthrough, tehran state controlled
  • 00:07:46.725 --> 00:07:50.329
  • Media is already portraying the agreement
  • 00:07:50.329 --> 00:07:52.231
  • As a victory over both the united states and israel.
  • 00:07:52.231 --> 00:07:56.602
  • So is this
  • 00:07:56.602 --> 00:07:57.836
  • Truly an historic agreement that makes the region safer, or
  • 00:07:57.836 --> 00:08:01.440
  • Is the real story what happens after the ink dries?
  • 00:08:01.440 --> 00:08:05.444
  • Joining us now is jonathan schanzer,
  • 00:08:05.444 --> 00:08:06.845
  • Executive director of the foundation
  • 00:08:06.845 --> 00:08:08.480
  • For defense of democracies in washington, d.c.,
  • 00:08:08.480 --> 00:08:11.317
  • And one of america's foremost experts on iran terrorism
  • 00:08:11.317 --> 00:08:15.154
  • And middle east security.
  • 00:08:15.154 --> 00:08:16.322
  • Jonathan, always great to see you, my friend.
  • 00:08:16.322 --> 00:08:18.624
  • Hey, we don't have
  • 00:08:18.624 --> 00:08:19.291
  • All the details yet
  • 00:08:19.291 --> 00:08:20.459
  • Of what exactly is in this memorandum of understanding,
  • 00:08:20.459 --> 00:08:23.529
  • But based on what we do know.
  • 00:08:23.529 --> 00:08:25.097
  • So far, jonathan, what's been reported,
  • 00:08:25.097 --> 00:08:27.700
  • Your initial impressions of this deal?
  • 00:08:27.700 --> 00:08:30.970
  • Well, eric, i'm concerned,
  • 00:08:31.537 --> 00:08:34.073
  • What it looks like if any of the leaked,
  • 00:08:34.073 --> 00:08:38.043
  • Reports are accurate, suggests that the iranian regime
  • 00:08:38.043 --> 00:08:41.780
  • Is going to get some sanctions relief.
  • 00:08:41.780 --> 00:08:44.783
  • It's going to get maybe even some hard dollars.
  • 00:08:44.783 --> 00:08:47.886
  • We understand that there could be some side deals,
  • 00:08:47.886 --> 00:08:50.923
  • Between some of the arab states and the islamic republic, where
  • 00:08:50.923 --> 00:08:53.926
  • They're literally paying off the regime to not attack them.
  • 00:08:53.926 --> 00:08:57.630
  • In other words, what the islamic republic
  • 00:08:57.630 --> 00:08:59.498
  • Takes away from all of this is that.
  • 00:08:59.498 --> 00:09:01.800
  • Yeah, they they they held the entire world
  • 00:09:01.800 --> 00:09:03.869
  • Hostage by holding 20% of the world's oil back
  • 00:09:03.869 --> 00:09:08.007
  • From flowing through the strait of hormuz.
  • 00:09:08.007 --> 00:09:10.776
  • They carpet bomb their neighbors with drones and missiles.
  • 00:09:10.776 --> 00:09:14.647
  • And these were countries
  • 00:09:15.180 --> 00:09:16.348
  • That had nothing to do with the conflict.
  • 00:09:16.348 --> 00:09:18.851
  • And what they get out of it at the end is not the dismantling
  • 00:09:18.851 --> 00:09:21.854
  • Of their regime. it's not the collapse
  • 00:09:21.854 --> 00:09:24.323
  • Or complete collapse of their military.
  • 00:09:24.323 --> 00:09:26.692
  • It's a deal with the united states
  • 00:09:26.692 --> 00:09:28.894
  • That recognizes their government,
  • 00:09:28.894 --> 00:09:31.563
  • And it gives them some sort of financial relief.
  • 00:09:31.563 --> 00:09:34.667
  • This is, i think, not what the,
  • 00:09:34.667 --> 00:09:37.403
  • What the region was hoping for,
  • 00:09:37.403 --> 00:09:38.904
  • Not what the israelis were hoping for.
  • 00:09:38.904 --> 00:09:40.572
  • I think it's not what the united states was hoping for.
  • 00:09:40.572 --> 00:09:43.742
  • But it does go to show
  • 00:09:43.742 --> 00:09:45.144
  • What happens when you have a government
  • 00:09:45.144 --> 00:09:48.047
  • That does not care
  • 00:09:48.047 --> 00:09:49.081
  • About its people and that is willing to engage in
  • 00:09:49.081 --> 00:09:52.584
  • Just wanton destruction all around
  • 00:09:52.584 --> 00:09:55.154
  • The region, all around the world.
  • 00:09:55.154 --> 00:09:57.389
  • At some point, the rational actors
  • 00:09:57.389 --> 00:09:59.491
  • Have to come back to the table
  • 00:09:59.491 --> 00:10:00.993
  • To try to allow for cooler heads to prevail.
  • 00:10:00.993 --> 00:10:03.862
  • It's not what we wanted to see.
  • 00:10:03.862 --> 00:10:05.564
  • It does make you question
  • 00:10:05.564 --> 00:10:07.166
  • Whether there'll be another round.
  • 00:10:07.166 --> 00:10:08.634
  • My guess is there probably be.
  • 00:10:08.634 --> 00:10:10.869
  • There will probably will be one, and probably fairly soon.
  • 00:10:10.869 --> 00:10:14.139
  • Yeah, because i just can't see any scenario
  • 00:10:14.139 --> 00:10:16.208
  • In which the iranian regime suddenly changes its spots.
  • 00:10:16.208 --> 00:10:20.212
  • It's been nearly half a century of jihadi double talk, murder
  • 00:10:20.212 --> 00:10:23.716
  • And mayhem.
  • 00:10:23.716 --> 00:10:24.917
  • And i don't think things are about to change on that front.
  • 00:10:24.917 --> 00:10:27.519
  • The trump administration says iran
  • 00:10:27.519 --> 00:10:29.354
  • Won't get any sanctions relief, any dollars, those billions
  • 00:10:29.354 --> 00:10:32.624
  • That have been talked about unless iran changes
  • 00:10:32.624 --> 00:10:35.728
  • Its behavior. is that accurate, john?
  • 00:10:35.728 --> 00:10:37.730
  • Or will they get some money up front right away?
  • 00:10:37.730 --> 00:10:41.100
  • I mean,
  • 00:10:41.333 --> 00:10:42.534
  • If you are if you believe the islamic republic's media,
  • 00:10:42.534 --> 00:10:44.803
  • Which of course, we all have to take with a grain of salt.
  • 00:10:44.803 --> 00:10:47.272
  • But major news,
  • 00:10:47.272 --> 00:10:48.474
  • One of the propaganda outlets from the regime is
  • 00:10:48.474 --> 00:10:51.043
  • They've come out with
  • 00:10:51.043 --> 00:10:52.277
  • A 14 point document that talks about what they're going to get
  • 00:10:52.277 --> 00:10:56.014
  • And as we understand it, at least as their, conveying it,
  • 00:10:56.014 --> 00:10:59.852
  • That there's $12 billion up front and another $12
  • 00:10:59.852 --> 00:11:03.055
  • Billion on the other end after iran follows through with,
  • 00:11:03.055 --> 00:11:08.026
  • With its responsibilities, and that there also may be
  • 00:11:08.026 --> 00:11:11.230
  • Some sort of reconstruction fund.
  • 00:11:11.230 --> 00:11:13.766
  • The number that's being thrown around right now is 300 billion.
  • 00:11:13.766 --> 00:11:16.668
  • We don't know if that's true.
  • 00:11:16.668 --> 00:11:18.237
  • I mean, again, we don't know if any of this is true,
  • 00:11:18.237 --> 00:11:20.405
  • But if any of it is true and it looks like, you know,
  • 00:11:20.405 --> 00:11:23.809
  • We could be giving them, you know, more than $300 billion
  • 00:11:23.809 --> 00:11:27.179
  • For agreeing to open up the strait of hormuz and to,
  • 00:11:27.179 --> 00:11:31.283
  • I suppose, agree to end their nuclear program.
  • 00:11:31.283 --> 00:11:34.586
  • It's still a lot of money.
  • 00:11:34.586 --> 00:11:36.054
  • That money will go to hamas and hezbollah
  • 00:11:36.054 --> 00:11:39.658
  • And the houthis and the missile program.
  • 00:11:39.658 --> 00:11:42.594
  • And unfortunately, at least from what
  • 00:11:42.594 --> 00:11:44.396
  • We're hearing, right now,
  • 00:11:44.396 --> 00:11:45.798
  • All of those things,
  • 00:11:45.798 --> 00:11:46.899
  • The proxies, the missiles, the drones,
  • 00:11:46.899 --> 00:11:49.234
  • They're not part of the agreement.
  • 00:11:49.234 --> 00:11:51.103
  • This is really a narrow agreement,
  • 00:11:51.103 --> 00:11:52.805
  • At least as we're led to be led to understand.
  • 00:11:52.805 --> 00:11:55.674
  • This is a narrow agreement about the strait of hormuz
  • 00:11:55.674 --> 00:11:59.011
  • And nukes and getting back to business as usual.
  • 00:11:59.011 --> 00:12:02.681
  • John, about a minute left for the break.
  • 00:12:02.681 --> 00:12:03.982
  • Then we will bring you right back.
  • 00:12:03.982 --> 00:12:05.250
  • The ballistic missiles not addressed the support
  • 00:12:05.250 --> 00:12:07.152
  • For terror proxies like hezbollah,
  • 00:12:07.152 --> 00:12:08.520
  • Not just strait of hormuz open, but the nuclear program.
  • 00:12:08.520 --> 00:12:12.357
  • And that nuclear dust, the enriched uranium.
  • 00:12:12.357 --> 00:12:15.127
  • As president trump has called it on iranian soil.
  • 00:12:15.127 --> 00:12:17.196
  • What is the fate of that? the uranium in particular.
  • 00:12:17.196 --> 00:12:19.865
  • About a minute left.
  • 00:12:19.865 --> 00:12:21.300
  • Yeah.
  • 00:12:21.533 --> 00:12:22.334
  • I mean, look, it's entombed, right?
  • 00:12:22.334 --> 00:12:23.335
  • It's deep beneath the ground.
  • 00:12:23.335 --> 00:12:25.103
  • It's going to be hard for anybody to get at it.
  • 00:12:25.103 --> 00:12:27.539
  • You know, when i talk to folks in israel
  • 00:12:27.539 --> 00:12:29.474
  • And in the united states, they say, well,
  • 00:12:29.474 --> 00:12:31.176
  • If nobody can touch it, that may not be the worst thing
  • 00:12:31.176 --> 00:12:34.046
  • In the world for a time.
  • 00:12:34.046 --> 00:12:35.447
  • At some point, we're going to have to get back
  • 00:12:35.447 --> 00:12:37.549
  • In there, get underground
  • 00:12:37.549 --> 00:12:39.251
  • And grab this stuff to bring an end to this crisis.
  • 00:12:39.251 --> 00:12:41.920
  • But if it stays there for a time with nobody touching it,
  • 00:12:41.920 --> 00:12:44.723
  • Maybe no harm, no foul.
  • 00:12:44.723 --> 00:12:46.091
  • You know, john,
  • 00:12:46.091 --> 00:12:46.592
  • Real quick
  • 00:12:46.592 --> 00:12:47.526
  • It seems that the iran, the iranian regime
  • 00:12:47.526 --> 00:12:49.161
  • Look was teetering on the brink of collapse.
  • 00:12:49.161 --> 00:12:50.796
  • We had them right where we wanted them and then we
  • 00:12:50.796 --> 00:12:53.365
  • Let our foot off the gas.
  • 00:12:53.365 --> 00:12:54.733
  • Are you surprised about how this all shook out,
  • 00:12:54.733 --> 00:12:57.202
  • Considering it started?
  • 00:12:57.202 --> 00:12:59.037
  • I mean, in such an encouraging way.
  • 00:12:59.037 --> 00:13:00.539
  • The regime was smashed in the early days.
  • 00:13:00.539 --> 00:13:02.808
  • Yeah.
  • 00:13:02.808 --> 00:13:03.709
  • I mean, look, they're weak militarily.
  • 00:13:03.709 --> 00:13:05.644
  • I think they're very fragile politically.
  • 00:13:05.644 --> 00:13:08.180
  • The thing that i'm actually most surprised
  • 00:13:08.180 --> 00:13:10.015
  • That we just decided to let up on what we call economic fury,
  • 00:13:10.015 --> 00:13:13.886
  • This campaign of economic pressure,
  • 00:13:13.886 --> 00:13:16.421
  • Led by scott bastian at the treasury.
  • 00:13:16.421 --> 00:13:18.657
  • I think that if we held on for another couple of weeks
  • 00:13:18.657 --> 00:13:21.460
  • To a couple of months,
  • 00:13:21.460 --> 00:13:22.761
  • I think we could have broken the
  • 00:13:22.761 --> 00:13:23.929
  • Back of the regime economically,
  • 00:13:23.929 --> 00:13:26.365
  • And that could have had a real benefit,
  • 00:13:26.365 --> 00:13:28.800
  • I think, for getting to a
  • 00:13:28.800 --> 00:13:30.469
  • Final negotiation that would have been
  • 00:13:30.469 --> 00:13:32.170
  • On all of america's terms.
  • 00:13:32.170 --> 00:13:34.072
  • We probably will never know
  • 00:13:34.072 --> 00:13:35.607
  • Whether that would happen or not.
  • 00:13:35.607 --> 00:13:37.242
  • As long as the regime abides by the deal, then we will as well.
  • 00:13:37.242 --> 00:13:41.213
  • If they don't, then i think we are going
  • 00:13:41.213 --> 00:13:42.948
  • To see a return to economic fury.
  • 00:13:42.948 --> 00:13:44.716
  • And john, great break down.
  • 00:13:44.716 --> 00:13:45.851
  • More after the break with jonathan chance.
  • 00:13:45.851 --> 00:13:47.452
  • What about the iranian people and israel
  • 00:13:47.452 --> 00:13:50.589
  • And where they stand in this deal?
  • 00:13:50.589 --> 00:13:52.357
  • More with jonathan schanzer after the break. don't move.
  • 00:13:52.357 --> 00:13:57.011
  • More with jonathan schanzer after the break. don't move.
  • 00:13:57.011 --> 00:13:59.672
  • Welcome back to stakelbeck tonight.
  • 00:14:00.439 --> 00:14:01.840
  • We're talking our good friend jonathan schanzer,
  • 00:14:01.840 --> 00:14:03.475
  • Executive director of the foundation
  • 00:14:03.475 --> 00:14:04.944
  • For defense of democracies in washington, d.c.
  • 00:14:04.944 --> 00:14:07.279
  • Folks, be sure to follow jonathan x
  • 00:14:07.279 --> 00:14:09.148
  • And across social media right now.
  • 00:14:09.148 --> 00:14:10.950
  • John, israel's role in all of this.
  • 00:14:10.950 --> 00:14:13.619
  • Look, israel fought bravely, admirably side by side
  • 00:14:13.619 --> 00:14:16.989
  • With the united states
  • 00:14:16.989 --> 00:14:17.890
  • In the first few months of this war
  • 00:14:17.890 --> 00:14:19.625
  • Up until the ceasefire went into effect.
  • 00:14:19.625 --> 00:14:21.961
  • It seems to have been some friction between
  • 00:14:21.961 --> 00:14:23.662
  • President trump and prime minister
  • 00:14:23.662 --> 00:14:24.964
  • Netanyahu in recent weeks.
  • 00:14:24.964 --> 00:14:26.365
  • In particular over lebanon.
  • 00:14:26.365 --> 00:14:28.701
  • Trump wants baby to kind of hold his fire and not respond
  • 00:14:28.701 --> 00:14:32.604
  • To hezbollah terror attacks.
  • 00:14:32.604 --> 00:14:34.773
  • How does israel come out of this,
  • 00:14:34.773 --> 00:14:36.608
  • And are you troubled by
  • 00:14:36.608 --> 00:14:39.178
  • The ultimatums
  • 00:14:39.178 --> 00:14:39.912
  • President trump
  • 00:14:39.912 --> 00:14:40.813
  • Has essentially made to prime minister
  • 00:14:40.813 --> 00:14:41.914
  • Netanyahu to not strike against a terror group
  • 00:14:41.914 --> 00:14:44.917
  • That threatens israel's existence out of lebanon?
  • 00:14:44.917 --> 00:14:47.886
  • Yeah.
  • 00:14:48.120 --> 00:14:48.554
  • I mean, look,
  • 00:14:48.554 --> 00:14:49.655
  • I think it's important to understand that these two men
  • 00:14:49.655 --> 00:14:51.590
  • Have a long history.
  • 00:14:51.590 --> 00:14:53.625
  • They were part of that plan.
  • 00:14:53.625 --> 00:14:56.195
  • That we saw last year,
  • 00:14:56.195 --> 00:14:57.196
  • That 12 day war in iran
  • 00:14:57.196 --> 00:14:58.430
  • Where the israelis opened up the fighting
  • 00:14:58.430 --> 00:15:00.165
  • And then the united states came in.
  • 00:15:00.165 --> 00:15:01.967
  • Donald trump came in with the midnight hammer,
  • 00:15:01.967 --> 00:15:04.503
  • And dropped those heavy munitions
  • 00:15:04.503 --> 00:15:06.038
  • On those nuclear sites.
  • 00:15:06.038 --> 00:15:08.140
  • Then they went back at it again, wing to wing, shoulder to
  • 00:15:08.140 --> 00:15:11.176
  • Shoulder in this war.
  • 00:15:11.176 --> 00:15:12.678
  • These men have done a lot of fighting and a lot of planning,
  • 00:15:12.678 --> 00:15:17.082
  • To try to engage the islamic republic and weaken it.
  • 00:15:17.082 --> 00:15:19.952
  • I think they gave it a good shot.
  • 00:15:19.952 --> 00:15:21.887
  • I think donald trump ran into a buzzsaw.
  • 00:15:21.887 --> 00:15:24.189
  • Politics here.
  • 00:15:24.189 --> 00:15:25.824
  • We're heading into the summer months,
  • 00:15:25.824 --> 00:15:27.793
  • Where americans want to be able to fill their their gas tanks,
  • 00:15:27.793 --> 00:15:30.462
  • And they don't want that extra, you know, 30, $40 of what
  • 00:15:30.462 --> 00:15:34.466
  • I would call the iran tax added to, to that bill.
  • 00:15:34.466 --> 00:15:38.303
  • We, you know, we got the july 4th
  • 00:15:39.071 --> 00:15:40.506
  • Celebration, america's 250th.
  • 00:15:40.506 --> 00:15:42.808
  • Nobody wants to have a war going on while that's going on.
  • 00:15:42.808 --> 00:15:45.577
  • You don't want that.
  • 00:15:45.577 --> 00:15:46.578
  • Those kinds of dark clouds hanging over you.
  • 00:15:46.578 --> 00:15:48.914
  • And of course, the president has the midterm elections
  • 00:15:48.914 --> 00:15:51.784
  • Coming up in november,
  • 00:15:51.784 --> 00:15:52.751
  • And the party's divided over the war.
  • 00:15:52.751 --> 00:15:54.620
  • So you can understand where the president came from.
  • 00:15:54.620 --> 00:15:56.989
  • You understand where the israelis came from, right?
  • 00:15:56.989 --> 00:15:59.124
  • They've got an existential threat
  • 00:15:59.124 --> 00:16:01.126
  • That they need to deal with.
  • 00:16:01.126 --> 00:16:02.861
  • I think they were really happy
  • 00:16:02.861 --> 00:16:04.329
  • That the united states was with them, in that war,
  • 00:16:04.329 --> 00:16:07.299
  • Or that they were able to join
  • 00:16:07.299 --> 00:16:08.567
  • The united states, probably more accurately.
  • 00:16:08.567 --> 00:16:11.170
  • They did a lot of damage to the regime.
  • 00:16:11.170 --> 00:16:13.405
  • I think the regime is weaker and more fragile as a result.
  • 00:16:13.405 --> 00:16:16.475
  • And i do think that there
  • 00:16:16.475 --> 00:16:17.409
  • Could be aftershocks to this earthquake.
  • 00:16:17.409 --> 00:16:19.778
  • Let me just be clear.
  • 00:16:19.778 --> 00:16:20.846
  • You could still see the people of iran rise up.
  • 00:16:20.846 --> 00:16:23.682
  • You could still see economic collapse.
  • 00:16:23.682 --> 00:16:26.185
  • You could see internecine fighting
  • 00:16:26.185 --> 00:16:28.187
  • Within the islamic republic that could also help bring it down.
  • 00:16:28.187 --> 00:16:32.691
  • So, i mean, i don't want to
  • 00:16:32.691 --> 00:16:34.626
  • I don't want to throw out the idea
  • 00:16:34.626 --> 00:16:35.994
  • That there wasn't
  • 00:16:35.994 --> 00:16:37.062
  • A lot of beneficial cooperation between these two.
  • 00:16:37.062 --> 00:16:39.531
  • But what you raise about lebanon is important, eric.
  • 00:16:39.531 --> 00:16:43.435
  • The iranians are are actually paying
  • 00:16:43.435 --> 00:16:46.338
  • And training and arming hezbollah.
  • 00:16:46.338 --> 00:16:49.508
  • Hezbollah,
  • 00:16:49.508 --> 00:16:50.542
  • At the
  • 00:16:50.542 --> 00:16:51.810
  • Behest of the iranian regime, has been attacking the israelis.
  • 00:16:51.810 --> 00:16:54.012
  • Drones, missiles, rockets.
  • 00:16:54.012 --> 00:16:55.747
  • This has been going on for a long time.
  • 00:16:55.747 --> 00:16:57.950
  • I mean, it's really it's been going on since the 1980s.
  • 00:16:57.950 --> 00:17:00.552
  • But right now,
  • 00:17:00.552 --> 00:17:01.753
  • When the israelis get hit as they have been out of lebanon,
  • 00:17:01.753 --> 00:17:05.424
  • They of course,
  • 00:17:05.424 --> 00:17:06.658
  • As any normal country, what their inclination is to respond.
  • 00:17:06.658 --> 00:17:10.229
  • They not only have the the will to do it,
  • 00:17:10.229 --> 00:17:12.598
  • They've got the ability to really strike a debilitating
  • 00:17:12.598 --> 00:17:16.368
  • Blow to hezbollah.
  • 00:17:16.368 --> 00:17:17.402
  • Hezbollah is already a lot weaker than it was.
  • 00:17:17.402 --> 00:17:19.872
  • And the israelis are.
  • 00:17:19.872 --> 00:17:21.240
  • I mean, i think they take
  • 00:17:21.240 --> 00:17:22.341
  • I don't want to say they're on the cusp of victory,
  • 00:17:22.341 --> 00:17:24.243
  • But i think they can see a path to victory.
  • 00:17:24.243 --> 00:17:27.246
  • And right now, the islamic republic
  • 00:17:27.246 --> 00:17:29.181
  • Is telling donald trump, you got to rein in israel,
  • 00:17:29.181 --> 00:17:32.918
  • Or you won't get this deal with us in the strait of hormuz.
  • 00:17:32.918 --> 00:17:36.388
  • I think it's a mistake for donald trump to buy into that.
  • 00:17:36.388 --> 00:17:39.758
  • I think he needs to tell the iranians
  • 00:17:39.758 --> 00:17:41.927
  • What happens in lebanon, stays in lebanon.
  • 00:17:41.927 --> 00:17:44.696
  • Israel's got a free hand to defend itself.
  • 00:17:44.696 --> 00:17:47.366
  • We should get out of the way
  • 00:17:47.366 --> 00:17:48.967
  • And let the israelis finish this thing off.
  • 00:17:48.967 --> 00:17:51.136
  • And do not let the iranians dictate those terms.
  • 00:17:51.136 --> 00:17:53.972
  • Yeah,
  • 00:17:53.972 --> 00:17:54.940
  • Absolutely. they've succeeded in creating
  • 00:17:54.940 --> 00:17:56.408
  • Linkage between iran and lebanon.
  • 00:17:56.408 --> 00:17:58.710
  • Has the regime.
  • 00:17:58.710 --> 00:17:59.912
  • John, about a minute left, the iranian people
  • 00:17:59.912 --> 00:18:01.713
  • Who you mentioned, wow,
  • 00:18:01.713 --> 00:18:03.148
  • Who has suffered more than the iranian people,
  • 00:18:03.148 --> 00:18:05.317
  • More than anyone at the hands of this demonic regime.
  • 00:18:05.317 --> 00:18:08.320
  • Where do things shake out for the iranian people?
  • 00:18:08.320 --> 00:18:10.489
  • Still a chance for that uprising,
  • 00:18:10.489 --> 00:18:12.224
  • For the overthrow of this regime.
  • 00:18:12.224 --> 00:18:13.559
  • Do you still see that possibility?
  • 00:18:13.559 --> 00:18:15.060
  • About a minute left.
  • 00:18:15.060 --> 00:18:16.628
  • Yeah.
  • 00:18:16.628 --> 00:18:17.462
  • Look, of course they're all seething
  • 00:18:17.462 --> 00:18:18.530
  • About the 30,
  • 00:18:18.530 --> 00:18:19.665
  • 40,000 people that were mowed down back in january.
  • 00:18:19.665 --> 00:18:22.467
  • Their only crime
  • 00:18:22.467 --> 00:18:23.669
  • Was to speak out against the regime that they hate so much.
  • 00:18:23.669 --> 00:18:27.206
  • The big question that i have right now is whether the mossad,
  • 00:18:27.206 --> 00:18:30.842
  • The cia,
  • 00:18:30.842 --> 00:18:31.944
  • Or maybe even some of those arab states
  • 00:18:31.944 --> 00:18:33.612
  • That were taking it on the chin
  • 00:18:33.612 --> 00:18:34.880
  • From those iranian drones and missiles,
  • 00:18:34.880 --> 00:18:37.182
  • Have they been helping the iranian people
  • 00:18:37.182 --> 00:18:39.351
  • Get their hands on cash, secure communications, weapons
  • 00:18:39.351 --> 00:18:43.589
  • And other things that they may need
  • 00:18:43.589 --> 00:18:45.624
  • In order to be able to rise up
  • 00:18:45.624 --> 00:18:47.059
  • And finally bring down this regime?
  • 00:18:47.059 --> 00:18:49.027
  • The people, their hate, their their, their leaders,
  • 00:18:49.027 --> 00:18:52.631
  • They want this regime gone.
  • 00:18:52.631 --> 00:18:54.600
  • The question is, do they have the tools
  • 00:18:54.600 --> 00:18:56.802
  • And are we getting it to them?
  • 00:18:56.802 --> 00:18:58.570
  • We'll be finding out.
  • 00:18:58.570 --> 00:18:59.771
  • I'm going to guess in the coming weeks, maybe months ahead.
  • 00:18:59.771 --> 00:19:02.608
  • Jonathan, great break down. and well said, folks.
  • 00:19:02.608 --> 00:19:04.509
  • That's why he's one of the best in the business.
  • 00:19:04.509 --> 00:19:06.111
  • Our good friend jonathan chance.
  • 00:19:06.111 --> 00:19:07.246
  • Or check him out right now ftd.org x across social media.
  • 00:19:07.246 --> 00:19:11.116
  • John great job my friend.
  • 00:19:11.116 --> 00:19:12.284
  • God bless folks.
  • 00:19:12.284 --> 00:19:13.252
  • No matter how you slice it,
  • 00:19:13.252 --> 00:19:14.419
  • Iran comes out of this conflict weaker.
  • 00:19:14.419 --> 00:19:17.055
  • There's no doubt about that. and yet
  • 00:19:17.055 --> 00:19:19.258
  • A new and dangerous power is rising in the middle east.
  • 00:19:19.258 --> 00:19:23.862
  • We'll tell you who it is and why you should be concerned.
  • 00:19:23.862 --> 00:19:26.999
  • Next, stick around.
  • 00:19:26.999 --> 00:19:31.014
  • Next, stick around.
  • 00:19:31.014 --> 00:19:33.807
  • Welcome back to stakelbeck tonight, folks.
  • 00:19:34.708 --> 00:19:36.510
  • As we wrap up here.
  • 00:19:36.510 --> 00:19:37.544
  • Look, no matter how this shakes out
  • 00:19:37.544 --> 00:19:39.246
  • With iran's regime, the deal.
  • 00:19:39.246 --> 00:19:40.914
  • And by the way,
  • 00:19:40.914 --> 00:19:41.715
  • We'll have more details this week
  • 00:19:41.715 --> 00:19:42.950
  • That we will bring you here on stackelberg tonight.
  • 00:19:42.950 --> 00:19:45.486
  • No matter how this shakes out, one thing is very clear.
  • 00:19:45.486 --> 00:19:48.522
  • Iran's regime has been severely, severely weakened.
  • 00:19:48.522 --> 00:19:52.926
  • I don't see iran's ring of fire, its proxy network.
  • 00:19:52.926 --> 00:19:56.697
  • Iran itself, of course, is the head of the snake.
  • 00:19:56.697 --> 00:19:59.400
  • But we're talking hezbollah, hamas, the houthis.
  • 00:19:59.400 --> 00:20:02.369
  • I don't see them rising again to the heights they attained
  • 00:20:02.369 --> 00:20:06.240
  • Before october 7th.
  • 00:20:06.240 --> 00:20:07.741
  • They actually signed their own death warrant
  • 00:20:07.741 --> 00:20:10.177
  • On the day of the october 7th massacres.
  • 00:20:10.177 --> 00:20:12.379
  • Unbeknownst to them at the time, israel followed, and the u.s.
  • 00:20:12.379 --> 00:20:15.849
  • As well, with heavy, heavy blows that have pretty much left
  • 00:20:15.849 --> 00:20:19.453
  • Iran's ring of fire as a smoldering heap of ruins
  • 00:20:19.453 --> 00:20:23.290
  • That established
  • 00:20:23.691 --> 00:20:25.259
  • A vacuum of sorts, will now be created in the middle east,
  • 00:20:25.259 --> 00:20:29.029
  • And a very dangerous player will look to fill that vacuum.
  • 00:20:29.029 --> 00:20:33.500
  • In my view, his name is recep tayyip erdogan.
  • 00:20:33.500 --> 00:20:37.438
  • He is the leader of turkey, which is a nato member nation.
  • 00:20:37.438 --> 00:20:40.974
  • Helpful reminder that boasts the second largest military
  • 00:20:40.974 --> 00:20:45.045
  • In all of nato, only behind the united states.
  • 00:20:45.045 --> 00:20:48.749
  • Erdogan is muslim brotherhood through and through.
  • 00:20:48.749 --> 00:20:52.353
  • He is a vehement anti-semite and an anti-israel voice.
  • 00:20:52.353 --> 00:20:58.192
  • And here was his interior minister.
  • 00:20:58.192 --> 00:20:59.960
  • We talked about erdogan wanting to revive the glory days
  • 00:20:59.960 --> 00:21:04.064
  • Of the turkish led ottoman empire,
  • 00:21:04.064 --> 00:21:06.367
  • Reestablished that islamic caliphate.
  • 00:21:06.367 --> 00:21:08.869
  • Here was erdogan's interior minister
  • 00:21:08.869 --> 00:21:11.972
  • Talking about taking jerusalem last month.
  • 00:21:11.972 --> 00:21:15.642
  • Take a look.
  • 00:21:15.642 --> 00:21:53.013
  • It's not the first time erdogan's regime
  • 00:21:53.847 --> 00:21:55.449
  • Has talked about conquering jerusalem again.
  • 00:21:55.449 --> 00:21:57.985
  • This is a nato member nation.
  • 00:21:57.985 --> 00:21:59.420
  • Where are the condemnations from other nato member nations?
  • 00:21:59.420 --> 00:22:02.423
  • But here was erdogan himself talking about israel
  • 00:22:02.423 --> 00:22:05.926
  • And making some threats last week.
  • 00:22:05.926 --> 00:22:08.195
  • Take a look.
  • 00:22:08.195 --> 00:22:40.661
  • Folks this is serious stuff.
  • 00:22:41.261 --> 00:22:42.963
  • Erdogan is a serious player and these are serious threats
  • 00:22:42.963 --> 00:22:46.633
  • Towards the world's one and only jewish state.
  • 00:22:46.633 --> 00:22:49.436
  • So you think you're getting kind of a break here?
  • 00:22:49.436 --> 00:22:51.405
  • Iran is down, but up rises another radical, dangerous force
  • 00:22:51.405 --> 00:22:56.443
  • In the form of turkey, which is aligning with syria,
  • 00:22:56.443 --> 00:22:59.079
  • The muslim brotherhood, qatar as well.
  • 00:22:59.079 --> 00:23:01.782
  • The middle east never sleeps.
  • 00:23:01.782 --> 00:23:03.050
  • And that's why proverbs chapter four verse seven, when it comes
  • 00:23:03.050 --> 00:23:05.986
  • To israel, in the us in particular, is so important.
  • 00:23:05.986 --> 00:23:09.256
  • The beginning of wisdom, it says, is this get wisdom,
  • 00:23:09.256 --> 00:23:12.960
  • Though it cost all you have, get understanding.
  • 00:23:12.960 --> 00:23:15.896
  • That's a message for our leaders
  • 00:23:15.896 --> 00:23:17.731
  • For such a time as this great shows all this week.
  • 00:23:17.731 --> 00:23:20.868
  • Until tomorrow. god bless you.
  • 00:23:20.868 --> 00:23:23.470
  • We'll see you soon.
  • 00:23:23.470 --> 00:23:23.470