From wars and rumors of war abroad, to the rise of anti-Christian, "woke" ideology here at home, it's clear that Americans are living in perilous and unprecedented times. Some would even say that we're witnessing biblical prophecy unfold in real time. Stakelbeck Tonight will make sense of these stunning developments through a bold and biblical lens.
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Stakelbeck Tonight | Erick Stakelbeck: U.S. Leverage Over Iran | Stakelbeck Tonight | April 24, 2026
- Welcome to stakelbeck tonight.
- 00:00:17.439 --> 00:00:19.241
- I'm erick stakelbeck
- 00:00:19.241 --> 00:00:20.309
- And the world is watching the strait of hormuz.
- 00:00:20.309 --> 00:00:24.179
- Because what happens there could shake markets
- 00:00:24.179 --> 00:00:27.149
- Overnight and determine the outcome of the iran war.
- 00:00:27.149 --> 00:00:31.186
- President trump declared on truth social
- 00:00:31.186 --> 00:00:33.155
- Today that the united states has, quote,
- 00:00:33.155 --> 00:00:35.057
- Total control over this critical oil choke point.
- 00:00:35.057 --> 00:00:39.061
- He warned that no ship enters or leaves without u.s.
- 00:00:39.061 --> 00:00:42.898
- Approval, and he's ordering the navy to take decisive action
- 00:00:42.898 --> 00:00:46.802
- Against any iranian vessels laying mines in the strait.
- 00:00:46.802 --> 00:00:50.973
- Now, this comes
- 00:00:50.973 --> 00:00:52.074
- As iran is reportedly trying to sow chaos at sea,
- 00:00:52.074 --> 00:00:55.677
- Deploying mines, disrupting global shipping and threatening
- 00:00:55.677 --> 00:00:59.414
- One of the most vital energy corridors on the planet.
- 00:00:59.414 --> 00:01:03.152
- Meanwhile, president trump says the us
- 00:01:03.152 --> 00:01:05.187
- Naval blockade of iran is sealed up tight
- 00:01:05.187 --> 00:01:08.323
- Until the iranian regime can settle its power struggle
- 00:01:08.323 --> 00:01:12.427
- At the top and find someone to come to the negotiating table.
- 00:01:12.427 --> 00:01:16.965
- He says the clock is ticking for tehran, not washington,
- 00:01:16.965 --> 00:01:20.569
- And that he and america have all the leverage.
- 00:01:20.569 --> 00:01:24.573
- So where does it all go from here?
- 00:01:24.573 --> 00:01:26.909
- Joining us now to break it
- 00:01:26.909 --> 00:01:27.743
- Down is our good friend, former idf
- 00:01:27.743 --> 00:01:29.444
- Spokesperson, lieutenant colonel jonathan conricus.
- 00:01:29.444 --> 00:01:32.014
- He's now a senior fellow at the great foundation
- 00:01:32.014 --> 00:01:34.349
- For defense of democracies in washington, dc,
- 00:01:34.349 --> 00:01:36.919
- And an expert on military operations and strategy.
- 00:01:36.919 --> 00:01:40.055
- Jonathan, always great to have you with us, my friend.
- 00:01:40.055 --> 00:01:42.090
- Thank you.
- 00:01:42.090 --> 00:01:43.158
- Hey, strait of hormuz, blockade things heating up.
- 00:01:43.158 --> 00:01:46.061
- But again, i think trump's post
- 00:01:46.061 --> 00:01:47.796
- This morning, jonathan spoke to the fact
- 00:01:47.796 --> 00:01:49.865
- That america and by extension, israel, really
- 00:01:49.865 --> 00:01:52.568
- Have all the leverage here.
- 00:01:52.568 --> 00:01:53.902
- You know, the funny thing is
- 00:01:54.503 --> 00:01:56.872
- America and to a certain extent, israel
- 00:01:56.872 --> 00:01:59.675
- Fighting iran in the real world, but really fighting
- 00:01:59.675 --> 00:02:02.878
- Western media in the virtual world as well.
- 00:02:02.878 --> 00:02:05.581
- And you can see
- 00:02:05.581 --> 00:02:06.682
- How the president is responding to fake allegations.
- 00:02:06.682 --> 00:02:09.818
- And a lot of experts, columnists and people with opinions
- 00:02:09.818 --> 00:02:14.256
- That are piling on and trying to create pressure on the us
- 00:02:14.256 --> 00:02:19.094
- While alleviating pressure from the iranian regime
- 00:02:19.094 --> 00:02:22.064
- And trying to spin the story as if the iranian regime
- 00:02:22.064 --> 00:02:25.367
- Has leverage and cards to play against the u.s.
- 00:02:25.367 --> 00:02:28.637
- And against israel. that isn't reality.
- 00:02:28.637 --> 00:02:31.073
- It's almost as if they want the united states and israel
- 00:02:31.073 --> 00:02:33.542
- To lose two fold.
- 00:02:33.542 --> 00:02:35.010
- Yeah, they want the u.s.
- 00:02:35.010 --> 00:02:37.112
- And israel to. it's madness.
- 00:02:37.112 --> 00:02:38.447
- And they want the iranian regime to walk away
- 00:02:38.447 --> 00:02:41.617
- In some ways victorious. and let's be clear.
- 00:02:41.617 --> 00:02:43.952
- If the iranian regime walks away with a control,
- 00:02:43.952 --> 00:02:47.122
- A piracy control, a collection racket
- 00:02:47.122 --> 00:02:50.792
- Over the straits of hormuz, that's kind of a victory.
- 00:02:50.792 --> 00:02:54.796
- And that's a very bad lesson
- 00:02:54.796 --> 00:02:56.665
- For all terrorists and all rogue nations around the world
- 00:02:56.665 --> 00:02:59.368
- That you can get away with doing that.
- 00:02:59.368 --> 00:03:00.636
- So that would be something
- 00:03:00.636 --> 00:03:01.637
- That really the world needs to stay away from.
- 00:03:01.637 --> 00:03:04.740
- But what we're seeing on the ground is that there's this,
- 00:03:04.740 --> 00:03:07.843
- You know, warped image of reality on the ground,
- 00:03:07.843 --> 00:03:10.979
- Which is very clear.
- 00:03:10.979 --> 00:03:11.980
- The u.s. has leverage over iran.
- 00:03:11.980 --> 00:03:14.416
- Every day that goes by,
- 00:03:14.416 --> 00:03:15.884
- The iranian regime is bleeding money,
- 00:03:15.884 --> 00:03:18.186
- And they don't have the capacity.
- 00:03:18.186 --> 00:03:19.921
- They don't have the buffers to bleed money,
- 00:03:19.921 --> 00:03:22.124
- Something to the tune of $500 million per day.
- 00:03:22.124 --> 00:03:25.193
- That's what they're bleeding.
- 00:03:25.193 --> 00:03:26.862
- That's why, by the way, according to
- 00:03:26.862 --> 00:03:28.697
- Fdd research and numbers.
- 00:03:28.697 --> 00:03:30.499
- And what's even more important, they're under the clock.
- 00:03:30.499 --> 00:03:33.368
- And the clock is ticking.
- 00:03:33.368 --> 00:03:34.469
- Because in a matter of
- 00:03:34.469 --> 00:03:35.470
- About a week and a half maximum two weeks,
- 00:03:35.470 --> 00:03:38.540
- They won't have the ability to export and pump out the oil
- 00:03:38.540 --> 00:03:42.411
- From the oil fields,
- 00:03:42.411 --> 00:03:43.879
- And then they'll have
- 00:03:43.879 --> 00:03:45.080
- Irreversible damage to many of their production facilities.
- 00:03:45.080 --> 00:03:48.884
- And that's a clock that is definitive.
- 00:03:48.884 --> 00:03:51.953
- It's non-negotiable.
- 00:03:51.953 --> 00:03:53.555
- President trump knows it. the iranians know it.
- 00:03:53.555 --> 00:03:56.091
- But the iranians are talking tough.
- 00:03:56.091 --> 00:03:57.893
- But what trump is doing is really calling the bluff.
- 00:03:57.893 --> 00:04:00.295
- Yeah. jonathan, great breakdown folks.
- 00:04:00.295 --> 00:04:01.863
- By the way, we will be heading over
- 00:04:01.863 --> 00:04:03.165
- To the map shortly to give you a zoomed in, up close
- 00:04:03.165 --> 00:04:06.702
- Look at the strait of hormuz and why it is so important.
- 00:04:06.702 --> 00:04:10.238
- Jonathan, who is calling the shots
- 00:04:10.238 --> 00:04:12.341
- Right now in iran, that seems to be the big question.
- 00:04:12.341 --> 00:04:14.409
- We've got the one faction, i guess
- 00:04:14.409 --> 00:04:15.677
- The more political faction, but certainly not moderate
- 00:04:15.677 --> 00:04:18.780
- By any stretch of the imagination
- 00:04:18.780 --> 00:04:20.415
- Than the irgc, the islamic revolutionary guard corps.
- 00:04:20.415 --> 00:04:23.418
- Is there a power struggle at the top?
- 00:04:23.418 --> 00:04:25.220
- Do we have a sense of who's calling the shots?
- 00:04:25.220 --> 00:04:27.689
- Mojtaba khamenei is still bedridden, wounded, i guess.
- 00:04:27.689 --> 00:04:30.726
- What's the latest there?
- 00:04:30.726 --> 00:04:32.361
- So the ceo of fdd mark dubowitz said something really clever.
- 00:04:32.361 --> 00:04:36.932
- I would be wary of any talk about power struggles
- 00:04:36.932 --> 00:04:41.570
- At the iranian, in the iranian regime,
- 00:04:41.570 --> 00:04:44.406
- Because that is a now
- 00:04:44.406 --> 00:04:45.507
- Another tactic that the iranians have used in the past,
- 00:04:45.507 --> 00:04:48.543
- Creating this false image of we have moderates
- 00:04:48.543 --> 00:04:51.480
- And then we have hardliners and, you know, trying to find
- 00:04:51.480 --> 00:04:54.583
- The middle way in between.
- 00:04:54.583 --> 00:04:55.817
- No, the iranians have their hardline policy.
- 00:04:55.817 --> 00:05:00.021
- The guys that are calling the shots are the irgc generals.
- 00:05:00.021 --> 00:05:03.325
- They're the ones who are dictating.
- 00:05:03.325 --> 00:05:04.960
- They're the ones who are making all of these very militant,
- 00:05:04.960 --> 00:05:08.130
- Tough talking, belligerent decisions.
- 00:05:08.130 --> 00:05:10.899
- They are the ones who decided to fire missiles at civilians
- 00:05:10.899 --> 00:05:13.935
- And oil refineries and infrastructure
- 00:05:13.935 --> 00:05:15.771
- All around the middle east, arab muslim states.
- 00:05:15.771 --> 00:05:18.540
- Are the ones who have been firing missiles at israel
- 00:05:18.540 --> 00:05:21.209
- And all of the other countries.
- 00:05:21.209 --> 00:05:22.077
- They are the ones who said, okay,
- 00:05:22.077 --> 00:05:23.245
- We're going to choke off the strait of hormuz.
- 00:05:23.245 --> 00:05:25.714
- All of those decisions made by the same, you know,
- 00:05:25.714 --> 00:05:29.985
- Hard necked people.
- 00:05:30.452 --> 00:05:31.753
- Yeah.
- 00:05:31.753 --> 00:05:32.587
- And at the end of the day, they are
- 00:05:32.587 --> 00:05:33.455
- The ones who are not calling the shots.
- 00:05:33.455 --> 00:05:34.656
- They're the ones who are refusing
- 00:05:34.656 --> 00:05:36.324
- President trump's very reasonable proposal here to
- 00:05:36.324 --> 00:05:39.928
- Walk away with the regime intact.
- 00:05:39.928 --> 00:05:42.230
- President trump is saying you can have the regime.
- 00:05:42.230 --> 00:05:44.332
- We're not going to try to topple you.
- 00:05:44.332 --> 00:05:46.034
- Just no nuclear, no enrichment, no ballistic
- 00:05:46.034 --> 00:05:49.104
- Missiles, and no control over homos.
- 00:05:49.104 --> 00:05:50.939
- Yeah, and they're still saying, no.
- 00:05:50.939 --> 00:05:53.408
- Folks, we're going to head to the mat
- 00:05:53.408 --> 00:05:54.943
- With jonathan conricus after the break.
- 00:05:54.943 --> 00:05:56.745
- We're going to break down the strait of hormuz, kharg island.
- 00:05:56.745 --> 00:06:00.382
- You've heard that term over the past few weeks, right?
- 00:06:00.382 --> 00:06:02.451
- The israel lebanon border, the latest with hezbollah,
- 00:06:02.451 --> 00:06:04.920
- And much more with jonathan conricus after the break.
- 00:06:04.920 --> 00:06:08.056
- Stick around.
- 00:06:08.056 --> 00:06:12.004
- Stick around.
- 00:06:12.004 --> 00:06:14.432
- Welcome back to stakelbeck tonight, folks.
- 00:06:15.333 --> 00:06:17.402
- Now it gets really interesting.
- 00:06:17.402 --> 00:06:19.170
- It is matt time with lieutenant colonel jonathan conricus.
- 00:06:19.170 --> 00:06:22.440
- And hey, we've got the broader map here, jonathan
- 00:06:22.440 --> 00:06:24.709
- A showing the broader middle east.
- 00:06:24.709 --> 00:06:26.177
- But we want to zoom in to the strait of hormuz.
- 00:06:26.177 --> 00:06:29.380
- We're talking a lot about it now.
- 00:06:29.380 --> 00:06:31.483
- And we're going to have you break it down, my friend.
- 00:06:31.483 --> 00:06:34.486
- Why it is so pivotal.
- 00:06:34.486 --> 00:06:35.653
- Obviously, we have a us naval blockade
- 00:06:35.653 --> 00:06:37.522
- Going on right now in the near the strait of hormuz.
- 00:06:37.522 --> 00:06:39.891
- And evans blocking iranian ports.
- 00:06:39.891 --> 00:06:42.594
- And the strait is really when we talk about this war
- 00:06:42.594 --> 00:06:45.697
- And where it's going, it seems all come back right now
- 00:06:45.697 --> 00:06:48.032
- To the strait of hormuz.
- 00:06:48.032 --> 00:06:49.400
- Break it down a bit for us. yeah.
- 00:06:49.400 --> 00:06:51.102
- So what president trump did was really to take the poison
- 00:06:51.102 --> 00:06:55.240
- Out of the iranians thing and say, if you, the iranians
- 00:06:55.240 --> 00:06:59.177
- Are going to conduct international piracy
- 00:06:59.177 --> 00:07:01.679
- And basically close off this very important bottleneck
- 00:07:01.679 --> 00:07:04.983
- Using the iranian coastline that they have here
- 00:07:04.983 --> 00:07:08.186
- And these islands,
- 00:07:08.186 --> 00:07:09.587
- If you the iranians are going to do that
- 00:07:09.587 --> 00:07:11.322
- To international shipping, well, then
- 00:07:11.322 --> 00:07:12.991
- I'm going to block everything here and further away,
- 00:07:12.991 --> 00:07:16.461
- And i'm going to make sure that if international shipping
- 00:07:16.461 --> 00:07:19.664
- Isn't working, iranian shipping isn't going to be working.
- 00:07:19.664 --> 00:07:23.334
- And that's going to be
- 00:07:23.334 --> 00:07:24.569
- Very important for leverage, american leverage on the on the
- 00:07:24.569 --> 00:07:28.573
- The country of iran and the regime.
- 00:07:28.573 --> 00:07:30.241
- So what do we have here?
- 00:07:30.241 --> 00:07:31.509
- We have a very narrow waterway that is dominated
- 00:07:31.509 --> 00:07:35.246
- On about 270 degrees by iran.
- 00:07:35.246 --> 00:07:38.616
- What they've done over at least 20 years is to build
- 00:07:38.616 --> 00:07:42.720
- A lot of infrastructure here.
- 00:07:42.720 --> 00:07:44.656
- They have built these hidden caves and rocket launcher sites
- 00:07:44.656 --> 00:07:48.927
- Where they can actually launch missiles
- 00:07:48.927 --> 00:07:51.863
- And drones from close vicinity towards the sea.
- 00:07:51.863 --> 00:07:55.533
- Any shipping, you know, any big, slow moving
- 00:07:55.533 --> 00:07:58.603
- Freight vessel that is there can be a target.
- 00:07:58.603 --> 00:08:01.940
- Kind of a sitting duck.
- 00:08:01.940 --> 00:08:03.174
- And what they've also done is they've prepared these exit
- 00:08:03.174 --> 00:08:06.678
- Points from various hidden locations of fast boats.
- 00:08:06.678 --> 00:08:11.082
- We just saw that they've been using fast boats,
- 00:08:11.082 --> 00:08:13.518
- Which is basically what remains of the iranian navy,
- 00:08:13.518 --> 00:08:16.788
- But they use them in order to intercept
- 00:08:16.788 --> 00:08:19.824
- International shipping and the big tankers, etc..
- 00:08:19.824 --> 00:08:23.962
- And and of course, they've also mined some parts
- 00:08:23.962 --> 00:08:27.532
- Of the strait in this location and probably in this location
- 00:08:27.532 --> 00:08:31.302
- As well.
- 00:08:31.302 --> 00:08:32.303
- That's according to the most updated reports.
- 00:08:32.303 --> 00:08:33.805
- And there's a few reports of allegedly in this area as well.
- 00:08:33.805 --> 00:08:37.542
- So what we have here is a pretty complex situation,
- 00:08:37.542 --> 00:08:41.312
- A complex situation, something that the iranians
- 00:08:41.312 --> 00:08:44.015
- Have prepared for over a long period of time.
- 00:08:44.015 --> 00:08:46.684
- But here is the important part.
- 00:08:46.684 --> 00:08:48.753
- This isn't a surprise.
- 00:08:48.753 --> 00:08:50.421
- Not for israelis, but more importantly, not for centcom.
- 00:08:50.421 --> 00:08:54.292
- This is a military mission
- 00:08:54.292 --> 00:08:56.227
- That centcom central command of the us
- 00:08:56.227 --> 00:08:58.763
- Has had a lot of time to prepare for.
- 00:08:58.763 --> 00:09:01.099
- And i want to be clear.
- 00:09:01.099 --> 00:09:02.467
- You know, there's a lot of reports out there
- 00:09:02.467 --> 00:09:04.569
- Of how long it would take
- 00:09:04.569 --> 00:09:05.937
- And how difficult it would be to clear the area of hormuz.
- 00:09:05.937 --> 00:09:09.207
- From a military perspective, and i have this from,
- 00:09:09.207 --> 00:09:11.909
- You know, solid naval experts, u.s.
- 00:09:11.909 --> 00:09:14.712
- And israeli,
- 00:09:14.712 --> 00:09:15.880
- If an order is given to clear this area of mines
- 00:09:15.880 --> 00:09:19.951
- And of the enemy infrastructure here that controls the area.
- 00:09:19.951 --> 00:09:23.287
- That's a doable military mission.
- 00:09:23.287 --> 00:09:25.657
- That'll take a few weeks to be done, but eventually,
- 00:09:25.657 --> 00:09:29.060
- The strait of hormuz,
- 00:09:29.060 --> 00:09:30.495
- If the president decides to open it, the strait will be open.
- 00:09:30.495 --> 00:09:34.499
- And a lot of people have that wrong.
- 00:09:34.499 --> 00:09:36.034
- They have that confused,
- 00:09:36.034 --> 00:09:37.268
- And they think that this is some kind of impenetrable situation
- 00:09:37.268 --> 00:09:40.238
- And that iran has its hands on, you know, around the neck
- 00:09:40.238 --> 00:09:44.242
- Of global shipping.
- 00:09:44.242 --> 00:09:45.443
- That's a temporary situation.
- 00:09:45.443 --> 00:09:47.111
- And so far, the u.s.
- 00:09:47.111 --> 00:09:48.446
- Just hasn't decided to open it up. that's a difference.
- 00:09:48.446 --> 00:09:51.416
- Yeah. jonathan, great point again.
- 00:09:51.416 --> 00:09:52.684
- As you've been saying, we have all the leverage
- 00:09:52.684 --> 00:09:54.952
- United states and israel, by extension,
- 00:09:54.952 --> 00:09:56.754
- Have the leverage here.
- 00:09:56.754 --> 00:09:57.755
- Yeah. and iran is running out of options.
- 00:09:57.755 --> 00:09:59.757
- The blockade.
- 00:09:59.757 --> 00:10:01.092
- The blockade. stays.
- 00:10:01.092 --> 00:10:02.293
- And that brings me to the real hurting point.
- 00:10:02.293 --> 00:10:04.696
- And that's the island of haj cargo.
- 00:10:04.696 --> 00:10:07.832
- That's a small island which is actually on the,
- 00:10:07.832 --> 00:10:11.335
- A bit more to the north of the iranian coast.
- 00:10:12.270 --> 00:10:15.006
- You can see it here.
- 00:10:15.006 --> 00:10:16.040
- We traveled a few hundred miles to the north.
- 00:10:16.040 --> 00:10:18.376
- This here really is the center of the iranian economy.
- 00:10:18.376 --> 00:10:22.146
- This is where about 90% of iranian,
- 00:10:22.146 --> 00:10:25.750
- 1,995% of iranian oil revenues come from.
- 00:10:25.750 --> 00:10:29.721
- This is where the u.s. have struck.
- 00:10:29.721 --> 00:10:31.923
- Military infrastructure so far
- 00:10:31.923 --> 00:10:34.358
- Has not struck any of the oil infrastructure there.
- 00:10:34.358 --> 00:10:38.229
- But every day that this location is there and it's not capable
- 00:10:38.229 --> 00:10:43.167
- Of actually pumping out oil and there's no traffic of
- 00:10:43.167 --> 00:10:47.138
- Iranian vessels due to the american
- 00:10:47.138 --> 00:10:49.373
- Blockade, is a day that is wasted.
- 00:10:49.373 --> 00:10:51.776
- And within about a week and a half, maybe two weeks,
- 00:10:51.776 --> 00:10:54.712
- There will be permanent damage to infrastructure in iran
- 00:10:54.712 --> 00:10:58.049
- Because they want they don't
- 00:10:58.049 --> 00:10:59.484
- Have an outlet at card, and that is very important.
- 00:10:59.484 --> 00:11:03.287
- Pressure on the iranian regime.
- 00:11:03.287 --> 00:11:05.056
- And that's a non-negotiable thing. that's physics.
- 00:11:05.056 --> 00:11:07.658
- If you don't let off steam and pressure here,
- 00:11:07.658 --> 00:11:11.295
- You get irreversible damage in various oil, oil and gas
- 00:11:11.295 --> 00:11:14.465
- Fields in iran.
- 00:11:14.465 --> 00:11:15.399
- And that's something that no
- 00:11:15.399 --> 00:11:16.667
- Tough talk and no talented iranian negotiator
- 00:11:16.667 --> 00:11:19.737
- Can really talk themselves out of. yeah.
- 00:11:19.737 --> 00:11:21.439
- As president trump has said, the united states really
- 00:11:21.439 --> 00:11:23.708
- Does have all the cards here if it so chooses to use them.
- 00:11:23.708 --> 00:11:26.878
- Folks, great breakdown
- 00:11:26.878 --> 00:11:27.979
- From jonathan of iran, strait of hormuz, kharg island.
- 00:11:27.979 --> 00:11:31.015
- We're gonna head over
- 00:11:31.015 --> 00:11:32.016
- Now to israel and lebanon, hezbollah country.
- 00:11:32.016 --> 00:11:35.586
- And jonathan, this is crucial. obviously.
- 00:11:35.586 --> 00:11:37.255
- Look, israel's been hammering hezbollah in lebanon.
- 00:11:37.255 --> 00:11:39.757
- There's a cease fire now, lebanese
- 00:11:39.757 --> 00:11:42.026
- And israeli delegations coming to washington.
- 00:11:42.026 --> 00:11:44.462
- I think president trump may get involved even this evening.
- 00:11:44.462 --> 00:11:46.764
- Yeah. so, what is the latest there?
- 00:11:46.764 --> 00:11:49.066
- And why is this such a crucial piece
- 00:11:49.066 --> 00:11:51.369
- To the broader picture with iran?
- 00:11:51.369 --> 00:11:53.304
- Well, what's happening on the ground is that
- 00:11:53.304 --> 00:11:55.406
- Israel has actually created a buffer zone here
- 00:11:55.406 --> 00:11:58.876
- Where you can see that israel has basically told
- 00:11:58.876 --> 00:12:01.846
- The lebanese authorities that this area,
- 00:12:01.846 --> 00:12:05.383
- Which is lebanese territory,
- 00:12:05.383 --> 00:12:07.185
- Where there are lebanese villages
- 00:12:07.185 --> 00:12:08.820
- That hezbollah used in order to attack israeli civilians,
- 00:12:08.820 --> 00:12:12.223
- We have israeli civilians in kibbutzim and towns,
- 00:12:12.223 --> 00:12:15.593
- All in these areas.
- 00:12:15.593 --> 00:12:16.861
- They were attacked on october 7th
- 00:12:16.861 --> 00:12:19.697
- And they were attacked just a month ago.
- 00:12:19.697 --> 00:12:22.400
- And what israel has now said
- 00:12:22.400 --> 00:12:23.634
- To the lebanese government is, until you tidy up your home
- 00:12:23.634 --> 00:12:27.405
- And make sure that hezbollah doesn't use lebanon
- 00:12:27.405 --> 00:12:30.208
- As a launchpad against israel, we are going to remain inside.
- 00:12:30.208 --> 00:12:33.711
- So even though this is the border,
- 00:12:33.711 --> 00:12:35.713
- This is where the actual deployment of israeli troops is,
- 00:12:35.713 --> 00:12:38.783
- And at the strategic level
- 00:12:38.783 --> 00:12:40.284
- That is supposed to translate
- 00:12:40.284 --> 00:12:41.886
- Into pressure on the lebanese government
- 00:12:41.886 --> 00:12:44.088
- To do what they have committed to doing a long time ago,
- 00:12:44.088 --> 00:12:47.158
- And that is to get rid of
- 00:12:47.158 --> 00:12:48.726
- Hezbollah and at least take away their weapons.
- 00:12:48.726 --> 00:12:50.962
- Now, hopefully
- 00:12:50.962 --> 00:12:52.029
- This will be a temporary
- 00:12:52.029 --> 00:12:53.764
- Deployment and israel won't have to stay here for too long.
- 00:12:53.764 --> 00:12:56.834
- But i mean,
- 00:12:57.168 --> 00:12:58.102
- When you think about the safety of israeli
- 00:12:58.102 --> 00:12:59.270
- Civilians living
- 00:12:59.270 --> 00:13:00.137
- So close to the border, it's
- 00:13:00.137 --> 00:13:01.672
- Kind of a non-negotiable situation,
- 00:13:01.672 --> 00:13:03.875
- Because if you live here
- 00:13:03.875 --> 00:13:05.443
- And you have hezbollah terrorists here,
- 00:13:05.443 --> 00:13:07.612
- That's not a situation that you can endure.
- 00:13:07.612 --> 00:13:09.747
- That's why israel needs to israeli
- 00:13:09.747 --> 00:13:11.415
- Troops need to be deployed here, hopefully will have american
- 00:13:11.415 --> 00:13:15.186
- Leadership and american diplomacy.
- 00:13:15.186 --> 00:13:17.355
- That'll pave the way again, peace, reconciliation.
- 00:13:17.355 --> 00:13:21.359
- That's already these words being spoken.
- 00:13:21.359 --> 00:13:23.294
- For the first time in history, lebanese leaders are saying,
- 00:13:23.294 --> 00:13:26.364
- Let's have peace and border
- 00:13:26.364 --> 00:13:28.399
- Crossings between lebanon and israel.
- 00:13:28.399 --> 00:13:30.234
- Let's do trade.
- 00:13:30.234 --> 00:13:31.035
- Let's do
- 00:13:31.035 --> 00:13:32.203
- Things that are positive instead of only talking about
- 00:13:32.203 --> 00:13:34.272
- War and fighting.
- 00:13:34.272 --> 00:13:35.539
- But the condition is
- 00:13:35.539 --> 00:13:37.508
- That hezbollah is removed of its weapons.
- 00:13:37.508 --> 00:13:39.844
- If that doesn't happen,
- 00:13:39.844 --> 00:13:41.212
- All of the positive things that we've spoken about,
- 00:13:41.212 --> 00:13:43.948
- They'll just be pipe dreams, because hezbollah will drag
- 00:13:43.948 --> 00:13:47.018
- Lebanon back into iranian oriented politics.
- 00:13:47.018 --> 00:13:51.188
- Whatever happens for the region happens in lebanon as well.
- 00:13:51.188 --> 00:13:54.592
- Yeah, iran, the head of the snake.
- 00:13:54.592 --> 00:13:56.027
- Iran needs to essentially surrender at the end of the day.
- 00:13:56.027 --> 00:13:59.063
- In so many words, hezbollah needs to disarm.
- 00:13:59.063 --> 00:14:01.499
- Then over in gaza, jonathan,
- 00:14:01.499 --> 00:14:02.934
- Speaking of disarming hamas refusing to disarm.
- 00:14:02.934 --> 00:14:07.071
- Yeah, gaza.
- 00:14:07.071 --> 00:14:07.939
- And we've got about a minute left.
- 00:14:07.939 --> 00:14:09.607
- Break that down for us real quick.
- 00:14:09.607 --> 00:14:10.942
- And what's going to need to come there.
- 00:14:10.942 --> 00:14:13.477
- Yeah. so we have gaza delineated here in red.
- 00:14:13.477 --> 00:14:15.947
- We have egypt over there in yellow and israel in in blue.
- 00:14:15.947 --> 00:14:19.884
- Basically what we have is an area
- 00:14:19.884 --> 00:14:21.752
- That is about half the size of the gaza strip.
- 00:14:21.752 --> 00:14:24.255
- This is what hamas controls, and the rest is where the
- 00:14:24.255 --> 00:14:28.059
- Israeli troops are deployed.
- 00:14:28.059 --> 00:14:29.427
- What hamas is saying in the rump state of,
- 00:14:29.427 --> 00:14:33.097
- Gaza that they still control, they tell the board of peace,
- 00:14:33.097 --> 00:14:36.133
- They tell america and the world, we are not going to disarm,
- 00:14:36.133 --> 00:14:39.870
- Even though we committed to it, even though there's a u.n.
- 00:14:39.870 --> 00:14:42.740
- Security council resolution saying that they're going
- 00:14:42.740 --> 00:14:45.076
- To lay down their weapons in this area,
- 00:14:45.076 --> 00:14:47.011
- And gradually israel is going to move out of that area
- 00:14:47.011 --> 00:14:50.614
- And deliver back the territory to gaza,
- 00:14:50.614 --> 00:14:53.684
- The precondition being hamas lay down their weapons.
- 00:14:53.684 --> 00:14:57.455
- Hamas is saying, we're not going to do that.
- 00:14:57.455 --> 00:14:59.423
- And that is a showstopper.
- 00:14:59.423 --> 00:15:01.125
- That is the absolute basic beginning.
- 00:15:01.125 --> 00:15:03.794
- Without it, nothing good can happen.
- 00:15:03.794 --> 00:15:06.430
- And, you know, it's sad because it means
- 00:15:06.430 --> 00:15:08.332
- That we will have to fight hamas again. yeah.
- 00:15:08.332 --> 00:15:10.801
- And at the end of the day, again, same problem.
- 00:15:10.801 --> 00:15:13.404
- Hamas won't disarm.
- 00:15:13.404 --> 00:15:14.638
- Hezbollah likely won't disarm the iranian regime, will they?
- 00:15:14.638 --> 00:15:17.875
- Will they cave if they don't, we're going to see what happens.
- 00:15:17.875 --> 00:15:21.212
- We're going to talk about that
- 00:15:21.212 --> 00:15:22.079
- After the break with jonathan conricus.
- 00:15:22.079 --> 00:15:23.514
- What happens next if military action resumes with the u.s.
- 00:15:23.514 --> 00:15:26.751
- And israel need to take action once again,
- 00:15:26.751 --> 00:15:28.853
- What does that look like?
- 00:15:28.853 --> 00:15:30.821
- More to jonathan conricus after the break.
- 00:15:30.821 --> 00:15:33.057
- Stick around.
- 00:15:33.057 --> 00:15:41.007
- Stick around.
- 00:15:41.007 --> 00:15:43.505
- Welcome back to stakelbeck tonight
- 00:15:44.239 --> 00:15:45.707
- We are talking to the one and only lieutenant colonel
- 00:15:45.707 --> 00:15:48.176
- Jonathan conricus, senior fellow at the foundation
- 00:15:48.176 --> 00:15:50.678
- For defense of democracies in washington, dc.
- 00:15:50.678 --> 00:15:53.148
- Of course, former idf international spokesman
- 00:15:53.148 --> 00:15:55.817
- Jonathan.
- 00:15:55.817 --> 00:15:56.518
- This war launched february 28th.
- 00:15:56.518 --> 00:15:58.787
- Epic fury slash roaring lion.
- 00:15:58.787 --> 00:16:01.756
- Where is iran now?
- 00:16:01.756 --> 00:16:04.192
- Where they were, say, february 27th
- 00:16:04.192 --> 00:16:07.095
- Compared to now, late april 2026?
- 00:16:07.095 --> 00:16:10.565
- I mean, talk about how the mighty have fallen.
- 00:16:10.565 --> 00:16:13.201
- They are in very bad shape, right?
- 00:16:13.201 --> 00:16:15.570
- Talk about the blows
- 00:16:15.570 --> 00:16:17.105
- They have taken, and it's tough to see this
- 00:16:17.105 --> 00:16:19.374
- Regime recovering anytime soon, although those certainly try.
- 00:16:19.374 --> 00:16:22.844
- They're down but they're not out.
- 00:16:22.844 --> 00:16:24.345
- That's the short answer.
- 00:16:24.345 --> 00:16:25.380
- They're down in all aspects of military
- 00:16:25.380 --> 00:16:27.715
- Power, their ability to project force, to fire ballistic
- 00:16:27.715 --> 00:16:31.519
- Missiles, their ability to produce ballistic missiles,
- 00:16:31.519 --> 00:16:34.656
- Their ability to defend their skies,
- 00:16:34.656 --> 00:16:37.025
- Their installations, their infrastructure,
- 00:16:37.025 --> 00:16:38.827
- Their leadership.
- 00:16:38.827 --> 00:16:39.894
- All of that
- 00:16:39.894 --> 00:16:41.062
- Has been significantly degraded by the us and by israel.
- 00:16:41.062 --> 00:16:44.399
- I would put the average at maybe around 70%, 75.
- 00:16:44.399 --> 00:16:49.838
- In some areas. it's more than that.
- 00:16:49.838 --> 00:16:52.307
- The nuclear military program, which is the focus,
- 00:16:52.307 --> 00:16:55.276
- The strategic focus of both of both of the israeli
- 00:16:55.276 --> 00:16:58.213
- And american operations to degrade
- 00:16:58.213 --> 00:17:00.148
- And make it impossible for the iranian regime
- 00:17:00.148 --> 00:17:02.484
- To ever establish nuclear weapons.
- 00:17:02.484 --> 00:17:04.886
- That has been significantly degraded.
- 00:17:04.886 --> 00:17:06.754
- But there is still a lot of work to do.
- 00:17:06.754 --> 00:17:09.324
- I read an american assessment that said that centcom needs
- 00:17:09.324 --> 00:17:13.061
- Another two weeks of continued operations
- 00:17:13.061 --> 00:17:15.864
- In order to achieve a levels of enemy destruction
- 00:17:15.864 --> 00:17:20.368
- That would be impossible for them to come back from.
- 00:17:20.368 --> 00:17:23.872
- If military action by israel and the united states resumes.
- 00:17:23.872 --> 00:17:27.175
- And by the way, israel is saying, hey, we're ready to go.
- 00:17:27.175 --> 00:17:29.344
- We'll do it when you do.
- 00:17:29.344 --> 00:17:30.378
- What does that look like?
- 00:17:30.378 --> 00:17:31.246
- Yeah, the israeli defense minister
- 00:17:31.246 --> 00:17:32.847
- Just put out a statement which is pretty telling,
- 00:17:32.847 --> 00:17:36.317
- Which basically said, we are locked and loaded, ready
- 00:17:36.317 --> 00:17:39.154
- To defend, ready to engage in offensive operations.
- 00:17:39.154 --> 00:17:42.490
- Yeah.
- 00:17:42.490 --> 00:17:43.691
- And the important part of what he said was that this time
- 00:17:43.691 --> 00:17:45.727
- It is going to be different. different in what sense?
- 00:17:45.727 --> 00:17:48.496
- Up until now,
- 00:17:48.496 --> 00:17:49.764
- The us and israel have basically been fighting with gloves on,
- 00:17:49.764 --> 00:17:53.768
- And one part of the time with hands behind their back
- 00:17:53.768 --> 00:17:56.871
- Want at least one hand.
- 00:17:56.871 --> 00:17:58.373
- We've been very gentle with iran.
- 00:17:58.373 --> 00:18:00.375
- Iran, on the other hand, has used
- 00:18:00.375 --> 00:18:02.177
- Almost all the military leverage that they have.
- 00:18:02.177 --> 00:18:04.779
- They've used the doomsday
- 00:18:04.779 --> 00:18:06.214
- Card, which is to
- 00:18:06.214 --> 00:18:07.248
- Close the strait of hormuz,
- 00:18:07.248 --> 00:18:08.716
- And they fired thousands of ballistic missiles and drones
- 00:18:08.716 --> 00:18:11.719
- At arab countries around them as civilians.
- 00:18:11.719 --> 00:18:13.855
- So they have maybe 1 or 2 more cards to use,
- 00:18:13.855 --> 00:18:17.025
- And then they're out.
- 00:18:17.025 --> 00:18:18.059
- On the other hand, the u.s.
- 00:18:18.059 --> 00:18:19.561
- And israel have all of iran, all of its energy
- 00:18:19.561 --> 00:18:24.098
- Resources, water, electricity
- 00:18:24.098 --> 00:18:27.035
- And transportation infrastructure below.
- 00:18:27.035 --> 00:18:30.104
- And none of that
- 00:18:30.104 --> 00:18:31.039
- Has been significantly targeted by choice.
- 00:18:31.039 --> 00:18:34.042
- The u.s.
- 00:18:34.042 --> 00:18:34.676
- And israel,
- 00:18:34.676 --> 00:18:35.944
- Mostly out of a concern for the future of the iranian people,
- 00:18:35.944 --> 00:18:39.581
- Not the regime,
- 00:18:39.581 --> 00:18:40.648
- Has basically
- 00:18:40.648 --> 00:18:41.749
- Said, we're not going to touch the infrastructure
- 00:18:41.749 --> 00:18:43.151
- Because we want an intact infrastructure to support
- 00:18:43.151 --> 00:18:46.254
- The people of iran the day after the regime falls.
- 00:18:46.254 --> 00:18:49.257
- Since the regime is prioritizing its own survival
- 00:18:49.257 --> 00:18:52.727
- Over the benefit of the people, what the u.s.
- 00:18:52.727 --> 00:18:55.296
- And israel may do
- 00:18:55.296 --> 00:18:56.864
- Is start attacking the dual purpose infrastructure.
- 00:18:56.864 --> 00:19:00.401
- This has been astounding in a great way
- 00:19:00.401 --> 00:19:02.670
- To see the cooperation between israel and the u.s..
- 00:19:02.670 --> 00:19:05.006
- I've said israel is america's greatest ally.
- 00:19:05.006 --> 00:19:07.141
- I believe that just in terms of what i've seen in the past
- 00:19:07.141 --> 00:19:10.245
- Eight weeks alone, and seeing
- 00:19:10.245 --> 00:19:11.479
- How europe has taken a pass against this existential threat,
- 00:19:11.479 --> 00:19:14.449
- Talk more
- 00:19:14.449 --> 00:19:15.717
- About the cooperation we've seen and this rock solid alliance.
- 00:19:15.717 --> 00:19:18.019
- Brilliant and moving, you know,
- 00:19:18.653 --> 00:19:21.556
- Moments of pride and tremendous gratitude.
- 00:19:21.556 --> 00:19:24.959
- And i've heard this
- 00:19:25.426 --> 00:19:26.661
- From numerous israeli officers that i've been speaking with,
- 00:19:26.661 --> 00:19:29.197
- Just, you know, sitting together in the operation centers,
- 00:19:29.197 --> 00:19:33.334
- American officers and israeli officers sharing intel systems,
- 00:19:33.334 --> 00:19:37.705
- Sharing the common operational picture,
- 00:19:37.705 --> 00:19:40.875
- Deciding together what gets attacked,
- 00:19:40.875 --> 00:19:44.178
- Defending together, defending u.s.
- 00:19:44.178 --> 00:19:46.214
- Assets, defending israel together,
- 00:19:46.214 --> 00:19:48.283
- Defending american capabilities and just
- 00:19:48.283 --> 00:19:51.953
- Taking mission after mission, successfully completing it
- 00:19:51.953 --> 00:19:55.556
- And doing it together, perhaps unlike any other
- 00:19:55.556 --> 00:19:59.027
- Duo in the world could be capable of doing today.
- 00:19:59.027 --> 00:20:02.430
- And i think, you know, israel and the u.s.
- 00:20:02.430 --> 00:20:05.800
- Probably writing a new chapter
- 00:20:05.800 --> 00:20:07.835
- In the history of the middle east,
- 00:20:07.835 --> 00:20:09.971
- In the history of our two nations, very positive ones.
- 00:20:09.971 --> 00:20:13.474
- But in less than two months.
- 00:20:13.474 --> 00:20:14.609
- In less than two months, again, job not done yet.
- 00:20:14.609 --> 00:20:17.545
- Yeah, but tremendously well, with very few casualties.
- 00:20:17.545 --> 00:20:21.416
- Obviously every servicemen
- 00:20:21.416 --> 00:20:22.917
- And women wounded and killed is a tragic loss.
- 00:20:22.917 --> 00:20:26.120
- And we've had casualties on both sides.
- 00:20:26.120 --> 00:20:28.056
- And this is a good opportunity for me as an israeli, to express
- 00:20:28.056 --> 00:20:30.725
- My gratitude to the families of of fallen americans.
- 00:20:30.725 --> 00:20:35.630
- And i wish them comfort and solace.
- 00:20:35.630 --> 00:20:38.366
- And just like we've had many casualties
- 00:20:38.366 --> 00:20:40.535
- In israel, i wish that there were fewer.
- 00:20:40.535 --> 00:20:42.737
- But at the end of the day, we're looking at a very,
- 00:20:42.737 --> 00:20:44.772
- Very successful military operation
- 00:20:44.772 --> 00:20:46.507
- That hopefully will continue to build the bridge
- 00:20:46.507 --> 00:20:50.478
- Of cooperation between the us and israel.
- 00:20:50.478 --> 00:20:52.680
- Yeah, jonathan, well said.
- 00:20:52.680 --> 00:20:53.815
- And i think from an american perspective that u.s.
- 00:20:53.815 --> 00:20:55.783
- Airmen who went down a few weeks
- 00:20:55.783 --> 00:20:57.018
- Ago, israelis were there helping to recover him.
- 00:20:57.018 --> 00:21:00.054
- Hey, final thoughts with jonathan conricus
- 00:21:00.054 --> 00:21:01.622
- After the break.
- 00:21:01.622 --> 00:21:02.490
- I want to close out with jonathan
- 00:21:02.490 --> 00:21:03.725
- His thoughts on that new middle east.
- 00:21:03.725 --> 00:21:05.626
- He kind of tease when the dust settles,
- 00:21:05.626 --> 00:21:07.328
- Could we see a new day in the world's
- 00:21:07.328 --> 00:21:09.364
- Most strategic and chaotic region?
- 00:21:09.364 --> 00:21:11.265
- We're wrapping up with jonathan conricus after the break.
- 00:21:11.265 --> 00:21:14.001
- Stick around.
- 00:21:14.001 --> 00:21:18.011
- Stick around.
- 00:21:18.011 --> 00:21:20.282
- Welcome back to stakelbeck tonight
- 00:21:21.016 --> 00:21:22.451
- We are wrapping up with jonathan conricus.
- 00:21:22.451 --> 00:21:24.453
- Be sure to check him out at the foundation
- 00:21:24.453 --> 00:21:26.055
- For defense of democracies,
- 00:21:26.055 --> 00:21:27.323
- Fdd dot org, and of course on ecs and across social media.
- 00:21:27.323 --> 00:21:31.160
- He's very active there with his great commentary and analysis.
- 00:21:31.160 --> 00:21:33.963
- Jonathan, we talked about a new middle
- 00:21:33.963 --> 00:21:35.131
- East, i think the abraham accords.
- 00:21:35.131 --> 00:21:36.899
- Could the saudis come to the table?
- 00:21:36.899 --> 00:21:38.467
- It seems that if the iranian regime
- 00:21:38.467 --> 00:21:40.336
- And its terror axis are out of the way,
- 00:21:40.336 --> 00:21:42.571
- We could really see a new middle east.
- 00:21:42.571 --> 00:21:44.640
- How do you see that? some of the possibilities.
- 00:21:44.640 --> 00:21:46.876
- So first it comes down to winning.
- 00:21:46.876 --> 00:21:48.711
- Winning is the absolute condition
- 00:21:48.711 --> 00:21:51.213
- That has to happen first.
- 00:21:51.213 --> 00:21:52.948
- The iranians need to be defeated if and when.
- 00:21:52.948 --> 00:21:55.818
- And i believe it's a win.
- 00:21:55.818 --> 00:21:57.019
- The iranian regime is defeated by the us and a certain extent
- 00:21:57.019 --> 00:22:00.756
- By israel.
- 00:22:00.756 --> 00:22:01.724
- What we can see is the biggest troublemaker
- 00:22:01.724 --> 00:22:04.627
- In the region, hezbollah, the proxy of iran.
- 00:22:04.627 --> 00:22:07.463
- Yeah, they will decrease, they will diminish.
- 00:22:07.463 --> 00:22:09.799
- And we may have peace between israel and lebanon.
- 00:22:09.799 --> 00:22:12.802
- There are no big issues between the countries.
- 00:22:12.802 --> 00:22:14.904
- We can see peace, prosperity, good relations, trade
- 00:22:14.904 --> 00:22:18.674
- And everything else.
- 00:22:18.674 --> 00:22:19.642
- Saudi arabia just around the corner.
- 00:22:19.642 --> 00:22:22.211
- And the power of winning will be,
- 00:22:22.211 --> 00:22:25.381
- You know, overflowing with positive energy.
- 00:22:25.381 --> 00:22:27.716
- And we can see real good developments in the region.
- 00:22:27.716 --> 00:22:31.020
- But first things first.
- 00:22:31.020 --> 00:22:32.755
- First you win and then you reap the rewards of winning.
- 00:22:32.755 --> 00:22:36.625
- And i think that with this american administration,
- 00:22:36.625 --> 00:22:39.361
- This president, this u.s.
- 00:22:39.361 --> 00:22:41.130
- Military fighting alongside israel,
- 00:22:41.130 --> 00:22:43.766
- This is probably the these are probably the best
- 00:22:43.766 --> 00:22:46.502
- Conditions that we can ever have. yeah.
- 00:22:46.502 --> 00:22:48.337
- Now it's about the will to get it done.
- 00:22:48.337 --> 00:22:50.206
- And i believe that it will be done.
- 00:22:50.206 --> 00:22:51.707
- This is it.
- 00:22:51.707 --> 00:22:52.408
- Well said, my friend, as always,
- 00:22:52.408 --> 00:22:53.576
- This is a golden moment of opportunity.
- 00:22:53.576 --> 00:22:55.511
- It may not come along again. so i think it will.
- 00:22:55.511 --> 00:22:57.780
- And a great prayer for the weekend, folks,
- 00:22:57.780 --> 00:22:59.315
- As we head into the weekend
- 00:22:59.315 --> 00:23:00.549
- For peace
- 00:23:00.549 --> 00:23:01.584
- In the middle east, quite literally, lebanon,
- 00:23:01.584 --> 00:23:03.052
- Saudi arabia, the possibilities are really there.
- 00:23:03.052 --> 00:23:05.154
- Jonathan. great job my friend.
- 00:23:05.154 --> 00:23:06.355
- Great breakdown, great having you safe travels here
- 00:23:06.355 --> 00:23:08.624
- Throughout the united states, folks. again.
- 00:23:08.624 --> 00:23:10.226
- Jonathan conricus extra walk across social media and monday.
- 00:23:10.226 --> 00:23:14.163
- Great show
- 00:23:14.163 --> 00:23:15.431
- Elizabeth pepco is here billy hollowell it's going to be good.
- 00:23:15.431 --> 00:23:18.434
- Until then, have a great weekend.
- 00:23:18.434 --> 00:23:20.636
- God bless you. and we'll see you soon.
- 00:23:20.636 --> 00:23:20.636
