Douglas Holtz-Eakin joins Allen Jackson to discuss current events.
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Allen Jackson NOW | Allen Jackson: Economic Indicators | Allen Jackson NOW | June 12, 2026
- Good evening and welcome to nashville.
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- I'm alan jackson.
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- Though most of us understand the simple principle.
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- If you spend more than you earn.
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- Year after year
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- Will, eventually you're going to have a problem.
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- That you may be able to make it work for a while.
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- You can borrow money.
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- You can put expenses on a credit card.
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- You can tell yourself you'll deal with it
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- Later, but sooner or later the bills come. do.
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- Well, for years, washington has spent more money
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- Than it brings in.
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- Sometimes there are good reasons to spend more during a war
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- Or a national emergency.
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- Most americans understand that.
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- But what concerns many is that the spending
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- Never seems to stop when the crisis is over.
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- The government is now borrowing trillions of dollars
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- As a normal part of doing business.
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- And while those numbers can feel distant
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- And sometimes hard to understand the effects well,
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- They may be much closer to home than many people realize.
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- When washington borrows money, that's money
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- That can't be invested somewhere else.
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- It can't help start a business.
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- It can't help expand a company.
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- It can't help create jobs
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- Or develop new technology or train workers for the future.
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- Over time, that really matters.
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- It can mean slower economic growth, fewer opportunities,
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- And a lower standard
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- Of living than americans might otherwise enjoy.
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- Many young americans already wonder
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- Whether they'll have the same opportunities
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- Their parents and grandparents enjoyed.
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- They see the rising cost of housing, education,
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- Everyday life, and many are asking
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- Whether the american dream is becoming harder to reach.
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- Well, this isn't just about numbers
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- On a government spreadsheet.
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- It's about whether we're leaving our children and grandchildren
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- Greater opportunity or just a bigger bill.
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- So how serious is the problem?
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- Can america continue spending the way it has?
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- And what happens if we don't change course?
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- Well, i'd like to suggest to you some biblically
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- Sound fundamentals for dealing with our resources.
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- I don't want us to feel powerless, folks.
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- Our financial choices make a difference.
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- One big.
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- We must choose to avoid debt like the plague.
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- We should be fighting as a nation to stay out of debt.
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- How do we find ourselves $39 trillion in debt?
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- It's because we don't consider debt that big of a deal.
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- And on a personal level,
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- As miraculous as compound interest is,
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- If you ever get on the negative side of compound interest,
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- You're looking at a modern day nightmare.
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- I'll give you one example.
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- A $7,500 balance on a credit card at 18% interest.
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- It's a minimum payment of $150.
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- How long do you think it takes to pay that off?
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- 30 years.
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- In two months, with a total payment of over $23,000.
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- Is it evil to borrow money?
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- Absolutely not.
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- In fact, our ability to borrow money
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- Is one of the reflections of the stability of the nation
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- In which we are privileged to live.
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- Many places in the world where i visited, the notion
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- Of a 30 year loan for a home would be laughable.
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- The governments are too unstable.
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- The economies are too unstable.
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- Their lives are far too uncertain.
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- They couldn't
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- Imagine loaning money over a lengthy period of time.
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- The fact that we've had that privilege,
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- It's a reflection of the values
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- That we have held
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- Regarding work, integrity, truthfulness, family.
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- If you deconstruct all of those things,
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- We will lose the stability.
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- Another fundamental
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- I'd like to suggest is simply to engage in work.
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- The dignity of work is not a bad thing.
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- Contrary to popular culture, today,
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- Work is not a four letter word.
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- The bible often refers to money
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- By calling it the fruit of our labor.
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- It's a very significant connection.
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- The bible attaches nobility to labor.
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- Scripture teaches that hard work is a good thing,
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- That it sharpens our intellect, develops our skills,
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- And provides a sense of satisfaction.
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- Another tip on how to get your financial house in order is
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- You need to distinguish between wants and needs.
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- Our vocabulary on the concept of need.
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- It's broken.
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- You see, we live in a society where there are multi-trillion
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- Dollar industries
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- Whose primary goal is to make you dissatisfied.
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- To convince you that the label in your clothing
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- Or the label in your car, or the label of something
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- Your children have,
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- Is what defines your value and your self-worth.
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- The bible says something different
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- That godliness with contentment is great gain.
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- One of the things in my life that helped me
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- Get a little bit of a handle on this idea of need
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- Was when my brother and i traveled to study
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- At hebrew university in jerusalem.
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- We were allowed to bring two duffel bags
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- That contained everything we needed for
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- That year of school our linens, our towels, our clothes,
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- Our books are cooking utensils,
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- Whatever we needed for the run at the university.
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- It had to fit into those two duffel bags.
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- Well, that exercise reshaped how i understood
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- What was essential and what was not.
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- On a national level.
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- One other issue that must change is the out of control fraud.
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- We have become a nation of thieves.
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- No, fraud is just a fancy word for stealing.
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- And there are stealing billions of dollars
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- From the american people.
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- One case of fraud in minnesota that the justice department
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- Is litigating.
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- It involves a company called ultimate home health.
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- The owners submitted $1.4 million
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- In false charges to a medicaid program, a program
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- Meant to help adults with brain injuries live independently.
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- Another case charges the medicaid provider
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- With fraudulently billing medicaid
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- For $22 million for in-home support services.
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- They were either unnecessary or just not provided.
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- The justice department's complaint alleges
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- That the defendants
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- There were charged use the funds they obtained from medicaid
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- To purchase. get this.
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- And aston martin three porsches, three teslas.
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- The expensive jewelry that included five rolex watches.
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- Well, i would expect the governors
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- And the mayors of the state where billions of dollars
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- Are being stolen from taxpayers, both from the local community
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- And the federal community, to be outraged at that.
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- But that's not the response we've seen.
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- I'd love to hear our leaders
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- Say, we're going to stop collecting income taxes
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- Until we can reduce fraud by 50%.
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- Wouldn't that be refreshing?
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- We as the church cannot sit quiet in this season.
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- We must let our voice be heard both now and in the coming
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- Elections in november.
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- We have an assignment to stand
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- For the truth, the search for it.
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- Because the solution to society's
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- Ills are not political.
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- It's spiritual.
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- We must have a faith that is living and vital,
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- A faith that requires
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- Situational awareness of the world we are living in.
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- We must determine to be champions of the truth.
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- With all that on the table,
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- In a moment, we're going to hear from the former director
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- Of the congressional budget office, doug holtz-eakin.
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- Now he's the president of american action forum.
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- I'll be right back.
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- I'll be right back.
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- Well, tonight we're joined by the president
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- Of the american action forum, doug holtz-eakin.
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- Welcome to the show, doug.
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- Thanks for having me.
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- You know, americans have different indicators
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- That they look to to determine the state of the economy.
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- You know, for some, it's their bank account.
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- For others, it's the price of gas or groceries.
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- I'm curious, as an economist,
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- What indicators do you pay attention to
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- And how do you rate our current economy?
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- Well, i pay attention to the overall growth
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- Rate of the economy, which is 1.6%
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- In the first three months of this year.
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- I like to see that number be a little bit higher
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- Than i dig into it and see where's that growth coming from?
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- It's very strong growth from the business sector,
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- Largely led by investments in ai
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- And the infrastructure we have.
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- We've had a big, investment spending boom.
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- Household sector looks a little weaker.
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- And i have some concerns about that.
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- The savings rates fallen from over 5% down to 2.6%
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- In the year.
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- That usually means
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- People are scraping a little bit and can't put away as much.
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- We've seen spending on goods and now services
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- Slowed down a little bit.
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- That has been concerned.
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- And in the most recent data,
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- Prices are rising faster than wages.
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- And that's that's not something
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- That you can put up with for very long.
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- So, you know, we're it's a very resilient economy.
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- It's moving forward.
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- But, you know, i'm ambitious.
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- I'd like to see us grow a little faster.
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- What do you perceive as our biggest economic threat?
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- Is it china?
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- Debt, inflation, something else?
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- I think the near term, outlook
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- Is all driven by iran and global oil markets.
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- How long does it take to get the strait of hormuz open?
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- It'll take a couple of months
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- After that for everything to normalize.
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- So, you know, sooner is better on that front.
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- No question about it.
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- After that, i think something that people
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- Don't talk a lot about, but which we ought to pay attention
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- To, is they're renegotiating the united states-mexico-canada
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- Free trade agreements.
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- And, that's a big economy in north america.
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- And when the tariffs were first imposed
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- And they applied to everything
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- That crossed both the canadian and the mexican borders, markets
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- Were really shocked.
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- And since then, we've exempted about 85% of those trades,
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- Making sure that we don't get into trouble
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- In that negotiation, i think is something to worry about.
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- I've got a video clip from senator rand
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- Paul with some opinions about our debt.
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- Watch that.
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- And then i've got a question.
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- Now, there's still 16 big government republicans
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- Who don't want to cut any spending.
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- And typically they work with the big government democrats.
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- And it is a bipartisan spending problem that we have here.
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- But most of them, i think, wish that they could be better
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- And stronger.
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- But i think a lot of them think,
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- Well, i can't stake out this position.
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- But when i get home, i get i get nothing but encouragement.
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- People at home are like,
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- Thank you for standing your ground.
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- Thank you for standing up for what
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- You said you were running on, which was balancing the budget.
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- What are your greatest concerns about
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- Our current national budget?
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- I echo everything the senator said.
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- You know, he's better attuned to the politics
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- And the politicians themselves, but i know that, you know,
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- You should not have business as usual.
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- Be spend $7 trillion, raise five in taxes, and borrow two.
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- That has led to the fact
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- That about a million, a trillion of that borrowing
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- Is interest on previous borrowing.
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- So that interest is now the most rapidly
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- Growing part of the federal budget.
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- It's bigger than everything
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- But social security in el paso, security in not very long in.
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- And you have a problem if your biggest spending item
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- Is what you owe other people.
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- And so
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- It is time for the united states to get ahold of that deficit,
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- Get ahold of the debt, and and change the trajectory.
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- And the sooner the congress move on that,
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- The better off we'll all be.
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- And that would be a miracle of biblical proportions.
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- I think,
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- As of may 20th.
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- Portfolio. yes.
- 00:10:49.207 --> 00:10:50.975
- As of may 22nd, we have a new fed chair, kevin walsh.
- 00:10:50.975 --> 00:10:54.479
- You know, many are looking to that change
- 00:10:54.479 --> 00:10:56.481
- To think they're going
- 00:10:56.481 --> 00:10:57.148
- To strengthen
- 00:10:57.148 --> 00:10:58.282
- The housing market with some really lofty expectations.
- 00:10:58.282 --> 00:11:01.385
- Do you believe he yields as much power as people hope he does?
- 00:11:01.385 --> 00:11:04.789
- The fed doesn't control interest rates.
- 00:11:05.590 --> 00:11:08.459
- The fed controls one interest rate.
- 00:11:08.459 --> 00:11:10.795
- The interest rate on overnight borrowing.
- 00:11:10.795 --> 00:11:12.597
- And certainly they can do what they can on that front.
- 00:11:12.597 --> 00:11:15.299
- But if, for example,
- 00:11:15.299 --> 00:11:16.667
- They don't get the debt under control,
- 00:11:16.667 --> 00:11:18.436
- All the other rates are going to skyrocket.
- 00:11:18.436 --> 00:11:20.271
- And what you pay on your mortgages and your car loans
- 00:11:20.271 --> 00:11:22.340
- And your credit cards are going to go up as well.
- 00:11:22.340 --> 00:11:24.675
- There's no escaping that.
- 00:11:24.675 --> 00:11:25.777
- So, i, there's no reason not to wish kevin walsh
- 00:11:25.777 --> 00:11:29.147
- Nothing but the best.
- 00:11:29.147 --> 00:11:30.348
- He has promised to do business differently.
- 00:11:30.348 --> 00:11:32.183
- And i think we'll see that from the fed.
- 00:11:32.183 --> 00:11:34.285
- He's going to sort of, i think, communicate differently
- 00:11:34.285 --> 00:11:37.789
- Right now.
- 00:11:37.789 --> 00:11:38.856
- The fed overwhelms us with economic projections
- 00:11:38.856 --> 00:11:41.359
- And guidance about maybe rate cuts next time, maybe not.
- 00:11:41.359 --> 00:11:45.229
- He's going to say less and act more.
- 00:11:45.229 --> 00:11:47.431
- And, i think it'll be interesting to watch.
- 00:11:47.431 --> 00:11:50.034
- One of the things
- 00:11:50.468 --> 00:11:51.302
- The trump administration has touted
- 00:11:51.302 --> 00:11:53.037
- As their new trump accounts,
- 00:11:53.037 --> 00:11:54.605
- That allows for the head start for our children,
- 00:11:54.605 --> 00:11:56.641
- Maybe to imagine that they could
- 00:11:56.641 --> 00:11:58.409
- Begin to accumulate some wealth earlier in their life.
- 00:11:58.409 --> 00:12:01.012
- Do you see that as a significant contribution,
- 00:12:01.012 --> 00:12:03.748
- Or is that more political dialog?
- 00:12:03.748 --> 00:12:06.684
- It could be a significant contribution.
- 00:12:06.684 --> 00:12:08.586
- We'll see how many people take up the trump accounts.
- 00:12:08.586 --> 00:12:11.923
- They are, at the outset, essentially, custodial accounts.
- 00:12:11.923 --> 00:12:15.927
- Parents have them on behalf of their children.
- 00:12:15.927 --> 00:12:18.329
- The real issue becomes when those children turn 18,
- 00:12:18.329 --> 00:12:20.932
- Do they continue to use them to build a retirement
- 00:12:20.932 --> 00:12:24.035
- Savings, of a substantial magnitude?
- 00:12:24.035 --> 00:12:27.405
- I hope so.
- 00:12:27.405 --> 00:12:29.040
- For decades, the us has had a reputation
- 00:12:29.040 --> 00:12:31.709
- As an economy that doesn't save enough.
- 00:12:31.709 --> 00:12:33.578
- And, a lot of our,
- 00:12:33.578 --> 00:12:36.047
- International trade woes come from the fact
- 00:12:36.047 --> 00:12:37.949
- That we have to have money
- 00:12:37.949 --> 00:12:39.350
- Come in from overseas to finance things.
- 00:12:39.350 --> 00:12:41.719
- A lot of people's concerns about social security
- 00:12:41.719 --> 00:12:43.955
- And other issues come from
- 00:12:43.955 --> 00:12:45.756
- The fact that they don't really have a big cushion.
- 00:12:45.756 --> 00:12:48.359
- Building that cushion is,
- 00:12:48.359 --> 00:12:49.293
- Is the first thing that that someone can do
- 00:12:49.293 --> 00:12:51.195
- To prepare themselves for the future.
- 00:12:51.195 --> 00:12:53.764
- You know,
- 00:12:53.764 --> 00:12:54.665
- It seems to me that one of the strengths
- 00:12:54.665 --> 00:12:55.633
- Of america's economy over time through history
- 00:12:55.633 --> 00:12:58.169
- Has been the productivity
- 00:12:58.169 --> 00:12:59.437
- Of the american worker, our commitment to effort,
- 00:12:59.437 --> 00:13:02.707
- Some of those values seem to have slipped a bit.
- 00:13:02.707 --> 00:13:05.176
- Is that my imagination,
- 00:13:05.176 --> 00:13:07.111
- Or do we have to kind of reimagine
- 00:13:07.111 --> 00:13:08.713
- Our way of engaging with work
- 00:13:08.713 --> 00:13:10.248
- In order to get to a better place?
- 00:13:10.248 --> 00:13:12.183
- I don't think it's your imagination.
- 00:13:12.950 --> 00:13:14.385
- I think you're an astute observer.
- 00:13:14.385 --> 00:13:15.820
- And, you know,
- 00:13:15.820 --> 00:13:17.021
- Some of the so-called inputs to things have dropped off.
- 00:13:17.021 --> 00:13:21.359
- Among the large developed economies,
- 00:13:21.359 --> 00:13:24.061
- We have the lowest rate of labor force participation among,
- 00:13:24.061 --> 00:13:27.231
- Prime age males.
- 00:13:27.632 --> 00:13:29.100
- Why is it they're not looking for work?
- 00:13:29.100 --> 00:13:30.735
- That's a concern for me.
- 00:13:30.735 --> 00:13:32.770
- And the, the outcomes are not what they used to be.
- 00:13:32.770 --> 00:13:36.274
- Income per capita in the united states is growing,
- 00:13:36.274 --> 00:13:38.809
- A percentage point slower than it did in the 20th century.
- 00:13:38.809 --> 00:13:41.312
- For example, from 1960 to 2000,
- 00:13:41.312 --> 00:13:43.547
- If we'd kept up the previous pace of growth.
- 00:13:43.547 --> 00:13:45.716
- Everyone in america, man, woman and child
- 00:13:45.716 --> 00:13:47.551
- Would have 25,000 more dollars per year on average.
- 00:13:47.551 --> 00:13:50.821
- I mean, that's a lot of money i'd like my 25.
- 00:13:50.821 --> 00:13:53.324
- I don't know about you.
- 00:13:53.324 --> 00:13:54.692
- So let's let's get the, the same values back.
- 00:13:54.692 --> 00:13:58.029
- Let's get the headwinds
- 00:13:58.029 --> 00:13:59.730
- To growth, like the deficit out of the way.
- 00:13:59.730 --> 00:14:02.133
- And then america takes care of itself.
- 00:14:02.133 --> 00:14:04.001
- And it's always been able to do that.
- 00:14:04.001 --> 00:14:06.337
- It seems to me
- 00:14:06.337 --> 00:14:07.238
- If we'd focus more on our productivity
- 00:14:07.238 --> 00:14:09.006
- Than our work life balance,
- 00:14:09.006 --> 00:14:10.675
- We would find ourselves at a better place.
- 00:14:10.675 --> 00:14:13.110
- I think that,
- 00:14:13.110 --> 00:14:15.413
- You know, people always in
- 00:14:15.980 --> 00:14:18.015
- This conversation portray work as the bad news works.
- 00:14:18.015 --> 00:14:21.652
- Not that news.
- 00:14:21.652 --> 00:14:22.787
- Work is a great sense of fulfillment.
- 00:14:22.787 --> 00:14:25.189
- Gives people
- 00:14:25.189 --> 00:14:26.424
- A sense of purpose, makes them feel better about themselves.
- 00:14:26.424 --> 00:14:28.993
- And it's the dividing line between,
- 00:14:29.760 --> 00:14:31.629
- Being poor and not poor in america.
- 00:14:31.629 --> 00:14:32.863
- People who work are far less likely to be poor.
- 00:14:32.863 --> 00:14:36.367
- If you're not working, then.
- 00:14:36.367 --> 00:14:37.501
- Then you face a lot of problems.
- 00:14:37.501 --> 00:14:39.603
- Well, doug, we need to take a short break.
- 00:14:39.603 --> 00:14:41.005
- And you stand by for another segment.
- 00:14:41.005 --> 00:14:43.040
- Sure can.
- 00:14:43.040 --> 00:14:44.275
- If you're watching, you have to have your phone in your hand.
- 00:14:44.275 --> 00:14:46.310
- Try logging on to ag now.com.
- 00:14:46.310 --> 00:14:48.346
- You can send me an email with your thoughts on this topic.
- 00:14:48.346 --> 00:14:50.982
- I'll be right back.
- 00:14:50.982 --> 00:14:58.004
- I'll be right back.
- 00:14:58.004 --> 00:15:03.160
- We're back now with the president
- 00:15:03.861 --> 00:15:05.329
- Of the american action forum, doug holtz-eakin.
- 00:15:05.329 --> 00:15:09.100
- Let's shift the conversation to eye for a moment.
- 00:15:09.100 --> 00:15:12.103
- Senator warren
- 00:15:12.103 --> 00:15:13.304
- Has recently written an op ed that ran in time magazine.
- 00:15:13.304 --> 00:15:15.973
- She was proposing hefty taxes on the i industry
- 00:15:15.973 --> 00:15:19.610
- In an effort to fund health care and education.
- 00:15:19.610 --> 00:15:22.913
- It seems to me the politicians never seem
- 00:15:22.913 --> 00:15:24.949
- To stop trying to find ways to raise more money,
- 00:15:24.949 --> 00:15:28.019
- As opposed to cut spending is that ever going to change?
- 00:15:28.019 --> 00:15:32.289
- I think it has to change.
- 00:15:32.857 --> 00:15:35.459
- The reality is that, you know, as i've mentioned
- 00:15:35.459 --> 00:15:38.195
- Before, we have enormous budget deficits
- 00:15:38.195 --> 00:15:40.698
- And the spending is growing more rapidly than the revenues.
- 00:15:40.698 --> 00:15:45.202
- And until you get the the spending growth
- 00:15:45.202 --> 00:15:47.138
- Rates to slow down,
- 00:15:47.138 --> 00:15:48.406
- You can raise taxes, but they'll still grow slower
- 00:15:48.406 --> 00:15:50.741
- Than the spending after you raise them
- 00:15:50.741 --> 00:15:52.109
- And you lose the race again.
- 00:15:52.109 --> 00:15:53.778
- Right now, there's a race between
- 00:15:53.778 --> 00:15:55.513
- Spending and revenues, and spending will always win.
- 00:15:55.513 --> 00:15:57.782
- It's stacked that way.
- 00:15:57.782 --> 00:15:59.383
- We've got to change it
- 00:15:59.383 --> 00:16:00.418
- Or we'll never deal with the fiscal problems.
- 00:16:00.418 --> 00:16:03.187
- Let's stay with the subject of ai for just a moment.
- 00:16:03.187 --> 00:16:05.689
- How does this new technology stand
- 00:16:05.689 --> 00:16:07.458
- To impact our economy for good or bad?
- 00:16:07.458 --> 00:16:10.528
- It's going to impact our economy dramatically.
- 00:16:11.462 --> 00:16:14.899
- There's no question about that.
- 00:16:14.899 --> 00:16:16.600
- A lot of the focus is on jobs. how many jobs will replace.
- 00:16:16.600 --> 00:16:19.203
- I think that's a mistake in focus.
- 00:16:19.203 --> 00:16:22.106
- Ai is going to change every job.
- 00:16:22.740 --> 00:16:24.675
- And in the process, it will make americans
- 00:16:24.675 --> 00:16:27.545
- More productive and will benefit from that higher productivity.
- 00:16:27.545 --> 00:16:30.314
- That's always been important in raising the standard of living.
- 00:16:30.314 --> 00:16:33.451
- There will be some jobs that that we, that we see
- 00:16:33.451 --> 00:16:36.120
- Get outsourced.
- 00:16:36.120 --> 00:16:37.254
- They're not going to be needed anymore.
- 00:16:37.254 --> 00:16:38.856
- And because they're the key will be to make sure
- 00:16:38.856 --> 00:16:40.458
- That we've done what we always do,
- 00:16:40.458 --> 00:16:42.126
- Which is take those things that are no longer,
- 00:16:42.126 --> 00:16:44.995
- The important items, like buggies
- 00:16:44.995 --> 00:16:46.730
- That became unimportant and move people into professions
- 00:16:46.730 --> 00:16:49.567
- That have some real prospects and give them a real paycheck.
- 00:16:49.567 --> 00:16:53.104
- So it'll be a challenge, i think.
- 00:16:53.104 --> 00:16:54.839
- There's no question about that.
- 00:16:54.839 --> 00:16:55.773
- But it's a great opportunity as well.
- 00:16:55.773 --> 00:16:57.775
- You know,
- 00:16:57.775 --> 00:16:58.776
- I'm old enough to remember when the internet
- 00:16:58.776 --> 00:16:59.810
- Was coming online and some of the predictions
- 00:16:59.810 --> 00:17:01.745
- About what it would and wouldn't do,
- 00:17:01.745 --> 00:17:03.147
- And frankly, most of them were inaccurate.
- 00:17:03.147 --> 00:17:05.583
- So i feel that kind of way about ai.
- 00:17:05.583 --> 00:17:07.184
- It's going to be more about our character
- 00:17:07.184 --> 00:17:09.120
- And how our character helps us shape that technology for
- 00:17:09.120 --> 00:17:11.889
- Good or evil.
- 00:17:11.889 --> 00:17:12.756
- It is absolutely about character.
- 00:17:13.524 --> 00:17:15.759
- There's a big, you know, tussle about regulating ai.
- 00:17:15.759 --> 00:17:18.863
- A lot of ai is just tools.
- 00:17:19.430 --> 00:17:21.265
- If you use
- 00:17:21.265 --> 00:17:22.500
- Ai to decide whether to pay a health insurance claim or not.
- 00:17:22.500 --> 00:17:25.236
- It doesn't matter if it was ai or human.
- 00:17:25.236 --> 00:17:27.138
- What matters is whether you pay the right claims.
- 00:17:27.138 --> 00:17:29.507
- And we judged firms by whether they do that.
- 00:17:29.507 --> 00:17:31.909
- So that doesn't change any of that.
- 00:17:31.909 --> 00:17:34.612
- Then for the tough calls, it's the ethical use of ai
- 00:17:34.612 --> 00:17:37.348
- That we have to be cognizant of.
- 00:17:37.348 --> 00:17:39.116
- And making sure that people use ai ethically
- 00:17:39.116 --> 00:17:42.019
- Is more important than what ai is.
- 00:17:42.019 --> 00:17:43.454
- It's a human creation and a human will run it.
- 00:17:43.454 --> 00:17:46.590
- And so we need to be cognizant of that and
- 00:17:46.590 --> 00:17:49.026
- Pay attention to our ethics.
- 00:17:49.026 --> 00:17:50.694
- Well, iran continues to dominate the news cycle,
- 00:17:51.695 --> 00:17:54.198
- And it seems we're always moments away from a cease fire.
- 00:17:54.198 --> 00:17:57.902
- And yet the turmoil continues on.
- 00:17:57.902 --> 00:18:01.172
- What are the real world impacts
- 00:18:01.172 --> 00:18:02.806
- To our economy from that conflict in iran?
- 00:18:02.806 --> 00:18:05.109
- I know the strait of hormuz is part of that.
- 00:18:05.109 --> 00:18:07.511
- But can you help us a little bit with the bigger picture?
- 00:18:07.511 --> 00:18:10.114
- The strait of hormuz is part of that.
- 00:18:10.114 --> 00:18:11.749
- But, lingering, past
- 00:18:11.749 --> 00:18:14.818
- That is just a lot of uncertainty about,
- 00:18:14.818 --> 00:18:17.988
- The state of international relations.
- 00:18:17.988 --> 00:18:19.523
- And for the business community, that means, you know,
- 00:18:19.523 --> 00:18:22.626
- Where do i get my supplies from?
- 00:18:22.626 --> 00:18:24.228
- What do i do in the u.s.?
- 00:18:24.228 --> 00:18:25.329
- What do i you know, i have export, customers.
- 00:18:25.329 --> 00:18:27.731
- Am i going to be able to use the supply chains that i used to
- 00:18:27.731 --> 00:18:30.601
- Sort of freezes all that decision making?
- 00:18:30.601 --> 00:18:32.369
- And that's that's not great.
- 00:18:32.369 --> 00:18:34.205
- And as this sort of draws out, it's expensive.
- 00:18:34.205 --> 00:18:37.308
- It's we've spent,
- 00:18:37.308 --> 00:18:38.409
- Something like $70 million total on this,
- 00:18:38.409 --> 00:18:41.845
- And we're going to have to
- 00:18:41.845 --> 00:18:43.347
- Replace all the munitions that have been used.
- 00:18:43.347 --> 00:18:45.282
- And that means more spending.
- 00:18:45.282 --> 00:18:47.117
- And, you know, we've not seen congress
- 00:18:47.117 --> 00:18:48.886
- Willing to cut somewhere else.
- 00:18:48.886 --> 00:18:50.254
- So that's more stress on the budget,
- 00:18:50.254 --> 00:18:52.256
- Which leads to more stress on interest rates.
- 00:18:52.256 --> 00:18:54.425
- You start getting stress on interest rates.
- 00:18:54.425 --> 00:18:56.160
- That's happening everywhere in the economy.
- 00:18:56.160 --> 00:18:57.528
- There's no way around that.
- 00:18:57.528 --> 00:18:59.063
- What about
- 00:18:59.063 --> 00:18:59.897
- I know there's been a reduction of oil
- 00:18:59.897 --> 00:19:00.998
- That's available for china from iran and venezuela.
- 00:19:00.998 --> 00:19:03.968
- So there's some sense that it's
- 00:19:03.968 --> 00:19:05.302
- Maybe a shift in the balance of power rebalancing trade.
- 00:19:05.302 --> 00:19:08.806
- So going to work in our favor over time.
- 00:19:08.806 --> 00:19:11.642
- One of the things we've learned
- 00:19:12.276 --> 00:19:13.244
- Is that, you know, this isn't, 2008 anymore.
- 00:19:13.244 --> 00:19:16.380
- And, the u.s.
- 00:19:16.380 --> 00:19:17.982
- Is the world's largest exporter of natural gas.
- 00:19:17.982 --> 00:19:20.217
- It's the largest producer and a major exporter of oil.
- 00:19:20.217 --> 00:19:24.154
- And these oil price shocks
- 00:19:24.154 --> 00:19:25.256
- Don't have the same impact that they used to
- 00:19:25.256 --> 00:19:27.391
- That that moves in the us favor.
- 00:19:27.391 --> 00:19:29.360
- We are the
- 00:19:29.360 --> 00:19:30.294
- The future of these energy supplies,
- 00:19:30.294 --> 00:19:32.263
- And they can't really be used to hold us hostage.
- 00:19:32.263 --> 00:19:35.232
- It can affect the globe, and they can affect,
- 00:19:35.232 --> 00:19:37.201
- The pace of economic growth.
- 00:19:37.201 --> 00:19:38.669
- But the balance of power has already shifted.
- 00:19:38.669 --> 00:19:40.537
- And it's because of the production expansion
- 00:19:40.537 --> 00:19:42.740
- We've done over the past two decades.
- 00:19:42.740 --> 00:19:45.109
- One last question.
- 00:19:45.109 --> 00:19:46.310
- I know it's an election cycle.
- 00:19:46.310 --> 00:19:47.578
- And so there's a lot of polarization.
- 00:19:47.578 --> 00:19:49.780
- Are you an optimist or a pessimist?
- 00:19:49.780 --> 00:19:51.348
- When you look at the economy and our future?
- 00:19:51.348 --> 00:19:53.317
- Oh, i'm an optimist.
- 00:19:53.784 --> 00:19:55.686
- You know, the, the, the power of the american people
- 00:19:55.686 --> 00:19:59.023
- To be productive, innovative and to succeed is unbounded.
- 00:19:59.023 --> 00:20:02.926
- And all they need is the willingness
- 00:20:02.926 --> 00:20:06.063
- Of the government to give them the freedom necessary to do it.
- 00:20:06.063 --> 00:20:09.066
- And, we've always had a government
- 00:20:09.066 --> 00:20:10.801
- That was wise enough to to keep, relatively small and contained
- 00:20:10.801 --> 00:20:15.239
- That to make sure that continues to be true.
- 00:20:15.239 --> 00:20:16.640
- And we'll be fine.
- 00:20:16.640 --> 00:20:18.509
- Doug, i thank you for your time today.
- 00:20:18.509 --> 00:20:20.077
- We appreciate your thoughtful insight.
- 00:20:20.077 --> 00:20:22.346
- Thank you.
- 00:20:22.346 --> 00:20:22.913
- Thanks for having me.
- 00:20:22.913 --> 00:20:24.048
- In a moment, we'll look at some of your emails.
- 00:20:24.048 --> 00:20:26.150
- We'll be right back.
- 00:20:26.150 --> 00:20:33.005
- We'll be right back.
- 00:20:33.005 --> 00:20:37.762
- Thank you for taking the time to send us your thoughts.
- 00:20:38.897 --> 00:20:41.933
- Your emails and opinions are always a highlight.
- 00:20:41.933 --> 00:20:44.669
- Paul from maryland wrote, isn't it time to point out
- 00:20:44.669 --> 00:20:48.039
- The undeniable fact
- 00:20:48.039 --> 00:20:49.140
- That the 90 pounds of uranium in iran
- 00:20:49.140 --> 00:20:51.609
- That threatened
- 00:20:51.609 --> 00:20:52.744
- The entire western world, including every american,
- 00:20:52.744 --> 00:20:55.280
- Was funded by the obama
- 00:20:55.280 --> 00:20:58.049
- And more recently, the biden administration.
- 00:20:58.049 --> 00:21:00.118
- How in the world is that not the buzz?
- 00:21:00.118 --> 00:21:02.887
- Well, paul,
- 00:21:02.887 --> 00:21:04.089
- It's an interesting observation, but i heard a conversation
- 00:21:04.089 --> 00:21:05.523
- In the last day or two that fascinated me.
- 00:21:05.523 --> 00:21:07.926
- It was an obama acolyte in the media cycle comparing
- 00:21:07.926 --> 00:21:12.731
- The obama iran deal with what trump is accomplishing.
- 00:21:12.731 --> 00:21:17.502
- And they were trying to say that they were very much parallel.
- 00:21:17.502 --> 00:21:20.939
- I never thought i would hear the obama camp obama
- 00:21:20.939 --> 00:21:24.175
- Trying to allied themselves with trump's foreign policy.
- 00:21:24.175 --> 00:21:27.479
- There must be the imagination that trump is succeeding,
- 00:21:27.479 --> 00:21:29.647
- Or that group wouldn't be trying to stay on those coattails.
- 00:21:29.647 --> 00:21:33.785
- Fascinating.
- 00:21:34.119 --> 00:21:35.086
- God has to be moving in the earth.
- 00:21:35.086 --> 00:21:37.489
- Harland, from michigan wrote.
- 00:21:37.489 --> 00:21:39.357
- Why is the end of life so ugly?
- 00:21:39.357 --> 00:21:41.993
- Pain, physical disabilities, mental decline, anxiety
- 00:21:41.993 --> 00:21:45.330
- And depression?
- 00:21:45.330 --> 00:21:46.631
- It's a good question, harland.
- 00:21:46.631 --> 00:21:48.400
- You know, the end of life is a transition,
- 00:21:48.400 --> 00:21:50.735
- And all transitions are difficult.
- 00:21:50.735 --> 00:21:52.604
- They're never easy.
- 00:21:52.604 --> 00:21:54.072
- It doesn't matter what the transition is.
- 00:21:54.072 --> 00:21:56.541
- For the christ follower, the end of life is an upgrade.
- 00:21:56.541 --> 00:21:59.911
- So it may be a difficult season and we recognize some decline
- 00:21:59.911 --> 00:22:03.248
- As we age.
- 00:22:03.248 --> 00:22:04.349
- But there is something that awaits us that far exceeds
- 00:22:04.349 --> 00:22:08.086
- The pain of the deterioration of this temporary life
- 00:22:08.086 --> 00:22:11.623
- Suit that we inhabit.
- 00:22:11.623 --> 00:22:13.725
- It's the reason we choose jesus as lord and serve him
- 00:22:13.725 --> 00:22:16.895
- With enthusiasm.
- 00:22:16.895 --> 00:22:18.430
- God's moving in the earth.
- 00:22:18.430 --> 00:22:19.898
- I hope you know him and i pray that you have a restful evening.
- 00:22:19.898 --> 00:22:23.735
- God bless you.
- 00:22:23.735 --> 00:22:23.735