Allen Jackson: Economic Indicators | Allen Jackson NOW

June 12, 2026 | 22:31

Douglas Holtz-Eakin joins Allen Jackson to discuss current events.

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Allen Jackson NOW | Allen Jackson: Economic Indicators | Allen Jackson NOW | June 12, 2026
  • Good evening and welcome to nashville.
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  • I'm alan jackson.
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  • Though most of us understand the simple principle.
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  • If you spend more than you earn.
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  • Year after year
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  • Will, eventually you're going to have a problem.
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  • That you may be able to make it work for a while.
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  • You can borrow money.
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  • You can put expenses on a credit card.
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  • You can tell yourself you'll deal with it
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  • Later, but sooner or later the bills come. do.
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  • Well, for years, washington has spent more money
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  • Than it brings in.
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  • Sometimes there are good reasons to spend more during a war
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  • Or a national emergency.
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  • Most americans understand that.
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  • But what concerns many is that the spending
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  • Never seems to stop when the crisis is over.
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  • The government is now borrowing trillions of dollars
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  • As a normal part of doing business.
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  • And while those numbers can feel distant
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  • And sometimes hard to understand the effects well,
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  • They may be much closer to home than many people realize.
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  • When washington borrows money, that's money
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  • That can't be invested somewhere else.
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  • It can't help start a business.
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  • It can't help expand a company.
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  • It can't help create jobs
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  • Or develop new technology or train workers for the future.
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  • Over time, that really matters.
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  • It can mean slower economic growth, fewer opportunities,
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  • And a lower standard
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  • Of living than americans might otherwise enjoy.
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  • Many young americans already wonder
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  • Whether they'll have the same opportunities
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  • Their parents and grandparents enjoyed.
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  • They see the rising cost of housing, education,
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  • Everyday life, and many are asking
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  • Whether the american dream is becoming harder to reach.
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  • Well, this isn't just about numbers
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  • On a government spreadsheet.
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  • It's about whether we're leaving our children and grandchildren
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  • Greater opportunity or just a bigger bill.
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  • So how serious is the problem?
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  • Can america continue spending the way it has?
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  • And what happens if we don't change course?
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  • Well, i'd like to suggest to you some biblically
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  • Sound fundamentals for dealing with our resources.
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  • I don't want us to feel powerless, folks.
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  • Our financial choices make a difference.
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  • One big.
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  • We must choose to avoid debt like the plague.
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  • We should be fighting as a nation to stay out of debt.
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  • How do we find ourselves $39 trillion in debt?
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  • It's because we don't consider debt that big of a deal.
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  • And on a personal level,
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  • As miraculous as compound interest is,
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  • If you ever get on the negative side of compound interest,
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  • You're looking at a modern day nightmare.
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  • I'll give you one example.
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  • A $7,500 balance on a credit card at 18% interest.
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  • It's a minimum payment of $150.
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  • How long do you think it takes to pay that off?
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  • 30 years.
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  • In two months, with a total payment of over $23,000.
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  • Is it evil to borrow money?
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  • Absolutely not.
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  • In fact, our ability to borrow money
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  • Is one of the reflections of the stability of the nation
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  • In which we are privileged to live.
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  • Many places in the world where i visited, the notion
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  • Of a 30 year loan for a home would be laughable.
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  • The governments are too unstable.
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  • The economies are too unstable.
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  • Their lives are far too uncertain.
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  • They couldn't
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  • Imagine loaning money over a lengthy period of time.
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  • The fact that we've had that privilege,
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  • It's a reflection of the values
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  • That we have held
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  • Regarding work, integrity, truthfulness, family.
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  • If you deconstruct all of those things,
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  • We will lose the stability.
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  • Another fundamental
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  • I'd like to suggest is simply to engage in work.
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  • The dignity of work is not a bad thing.
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  • Contrary to popular culture, today,
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  • Work is not a four letter word.
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  • The bible often refers to money
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  • By calling it the fruit of our labor.
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  • It's a very significant connection.
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  • The bible attaches nobility to labor.
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  • Scripture teaches that hard work is a good thing,
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  • That it sharpens our intellect, develops our skills,
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  • And provides a sense of satisfaction.
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  • Another tip on how to get your financial house in order is
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  • You need to distinguish between wants and needs.
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  • Our vocabulary on the concept of need.
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  • It's broken.
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  • You see, we live in a society where there are multi-trillion
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  • Dollar industries
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  • Whose primary goal is to make you dissatisfied.
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  • To convince you that the label in your clothing
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  • Or the label in your car, or the label of something
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  • Your children have,
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  • Is what defines your value and your self-worth.
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  • The bible says something different
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  • That godliness with contentment is great gain.
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  • One of the things in my life that helped me
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  • Get a little bit of a handle on this idea of need
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  • Was when my brother and i traveled to study
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  • At hebrew university in jerusalem.
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  • We were allowed to bring two duffel bags
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  • That contained everything we needed for
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  • That year of school our linens, our towels, our clothes,
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  • Our books are cooking utensils,
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  • Whatever we needed for the run at the university.
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  • It had to fit into those two duffel bags.
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  • Well, that exercise reshaped how i understood
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  • What was essential and what was not.
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  • On a national level.
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  • One other issue that must change is the out of control fraud.
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  • We have become a nation of thieves.
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  • No, fraud is just a fancy word for stealing.
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  • And there are stealing billions of dollars
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  • From the american people.
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  • One case of fraud in minnesota that the justice department
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  • Is litigating.
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  • It involves a company called ultimate home health.
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  • The owners submitted $1.4 million
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  • In false charges to a medicaid program, a program
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  • Meant to help adults with brain injuries live independently.
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  • Another case charges the medicaid provider
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  • With fraudulently billing medicaid
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  • For $22 million for in-home support services.
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  • They were either unnecessary or just not provided.
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  • The justice department's complaint alleges
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  • That the defendants
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  • There were charged use the funds they obtained from medicaid
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  • To purchase. get this.
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  • And aston martin three porsches, three teslas.
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  • The expensive jewelry that included five rolex watches.
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  • Well, i would expect the governors
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  • And the mayors of the state where billions of dollars
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  • Are being stolen from taxpayers, both from the local community
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  • And the federal community, to be outraged at that.
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  • But that's not the response we've seen.
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  • I'd love to hear our leaders
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  • Say, we're going to stop collecting income taxes
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  • Until we can reduce fraud by 50%.
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  • Wouldn't that be refreshing?
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  • We as the church cannot sit quiet in this season.
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  • We must let our voice be heard both now and in the coming
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  • Elections in november.
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  • We have an assignment to stand
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  • For the truth, the search for it.
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  • Because the solution to society's
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  • Ills are not political.
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  • It's spiritual.
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  • We must have a faith that is living and vital,
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  • A faith that requires
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  • Situational awareness of the world we are living in.
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  • We must determine to be champions of the truth.
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  • With all that on the table,
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  • In a moment, we're going to hear from the former director
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  • Of the congressional budget office, doug holtz-eakin.
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  • Now he's the president of american action forum.
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  • I'll be right back.
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  • I'll be right back.
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  • Well, tonight we're joined by the president
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  • Of the american action forum, doug holtz-eakin.
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  • Welcome to the show, doug.
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  • Thanks for having me.
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  • You know, americans have different indicators
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  • That they look to to determine the state of the economy.
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  • You know, for some, it's their bank account.
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  • For others, it's the price of gas or groceries.
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  • I'm curious, as an economist,
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  • What indicators do you pay attention to
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  • And how do you rate our current economy?
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  • Well, i pay attention to the overall growth
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  • Rate of the economy, which is 1.6%
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  • In the first three months of this year.
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  • I like to see that number be a little bit higher
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  • Than i dig into it and see where's that growth coming from?
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  • It's very strong growth from the business sector,
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  • Largely led by investments in ai
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  • And the infrastructure we have.
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  • We've had a big, investment spending boom.
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  • Household sector looks a little weaker.
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  • And i have some concerns about that.
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  • The savings rates fallen from over 5% down to 2.6%
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  • In the year.
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  • That usually means
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  • People are scraping a little bit and can't put away as much.
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  • We've seen spending on goods and now services
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  • Slowed down a little bit.
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  • That has been concerned.
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  • And in the most recent data,
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  • Prices are rising faster than wages.
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  • And that's that's not something
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  • That you can put up with for very long.
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  • So, you know, we're it's a very resilient economy.
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  • It's moving forward.
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  • But, you know, i'm ambitious.
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  • I'd like to see us grow a little faster.
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  • What do you perceive as our biggest economic threat?
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  • Is it china?
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  • Debt, inflation, something else?
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  • I think the near term, outlook
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  • Is all driven by iran and global oil markets.
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  • How long does it take to get the strait of hormuz open?
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  • It'll take a couple of months
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  • After that for everything to normalize.
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  • So, you know, sooner is better on that front.
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  • No question about it.
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  • After that, i think something that people
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  • Don't talk a lot about, but which we ought to pay attention
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  • To, is they're renegotiating the united states-mexico-canada
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  • Free trade agreements.
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  • And, that's a big economy in north america.
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  • And when the tariffs were first imposed
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  • And they applied to everything
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  • That crossed both the canadian and the mexican borders, markets
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  • Were really shocked.
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  • And since then, we've exempted about 85% of those trades,
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  • Making sure that we don't get into trouble
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  • In that negotiation, i think is something to worry about.
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  • I've got a video clip from senator rand
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  • Paul with some opinions about our debt.
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  • Watch that.
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  • And then i've got a question.
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  • Now, there's still 16 big government republicans
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  • Who don't want to cut any spending.
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  • And typically they work with the big government democrats.
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  • And it is a bipartisan spending problem that we have here.
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  • But most of them, i think, wish that they could be better
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  • And stronger.
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  • But i think a lot of them think,
  • 00:09:38.369 --> 00:09:40.138
  • Well, i can't stake out this position.
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  • But when i get home, i get i get nothing but encouragement.
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  • People at home are like,
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  • Thank you for standing your ground.
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  • Thank you for standing up for what
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  • You said you were running on, which was balancing the budget.
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  • What are your greatest concerns about
  • 00:09:54.152 --> 00:09:55.953
  • Our current national budget?
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  • I echo everything the senator said.
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  • You know, he's better attuned to the politics
  • 00:10:01.559 --> 00:10:04.162
  • And the politicians themselves, but i know that, you know,
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  • You should not have business as usual.
  • 00:10:07.665 --> 00:10:09.967
  • Be spend $7 trillion, raise five in taxes, and borrow two.
  • 00:10:09.967 --> 00:10:14.338
  • That has led to the fact
  • 00:10:14.872 --> 00:10:15.973
  • That about a million, a trillion of that borrowing
  • 00:10:15.973 --> 00:10:19.010
  • Is interest on previous borrowing.
  • 00:10:19.010 --> 00:10:21.112
  • So that interest is now the most rapidly
  • 00:10:21.112 --> 00:10:22.914
  • Growing part of the federal budget.
  • 00:10:22.914 --> 00:10:24.549
  • It's bigger than everything
  • 00:10:24.549 --> 00:10:25.817
  • But social security in el paso, security in not very long in.
  • 00:10:25.817 --> 00:10:29.153
  • And you have a problem if your biggest spending item
  • 00:10:29.153 --> 00:10:31.789
  • Is what you owe other people.
  • 00:10:31.789 --> 00:10:33.091
  • And so
  • 00:10:33.091 --> 00:10:34.358
  • It is time for the united states to get ahold of that deficit,
  • 00:10:34.358 --> 00:10:37.228
  • Get ahold of the debt, and and change the trajectory.
  • 00:10:37.228 --> 00:10:39.931
  • And the sooner the congress move on that,
  • 00:10:39.931 --> 00:10:42.200
  • The better off we'll all be.
  • 00:10:42.200 --> 00:10:44.268
  • And that would be a miracle of biblical proportions.
  • 00:10:44.268 --> 00:10:46.471
  • I think,
  • 00:10:46.471 --> 00:10:48.306
  • As of may 20th.
  • 00:10:48.306 --> 00:10:49.207
  • Portfolio. yes.
  • 00:10:49.207 --> 00:10:50.975
  • As of may 22nd, we have a new fed chair, kevin walsh.
  • 00:10:50.975 --> 00:10:54.479
  • You know, many are looking to that change
  • 00:10:54.479 --> 00:10:56.481
  • To think they're going
  • 00:10:56.481 --> 00:10:57.148
  • To strengthen
  • 00:10:57.148 --> 00:10:58.282
  • The housing market with some really lofty expectations.
  • 00:10:58.282 --> 00:11:01.385
  • Do you believe he yields as much power as people hope he does?
  • 00:11:01.385 --> 00:11:04.789
  • The fed doesn't control interest rates.
  • 00:11:05.590 --> 00:11:08.459
  • The fed controls one interest rate.
  • 00:11:08.459 --> 00:11:10.795
  • The interest rate on overnight borrowing.
  • 00:11:10.795 --> 00:11:12.597
  • And certainly they can do what they can on that front.
  • 00:11:12.597 --> 00:11:15.299
  • But if, for example,
  • 00:11:15.299 --> 00:11:16.667
  • They don't get the debt under control,
  • 00:11:16.667 --> 00:11:18.436
  • All the other rates are going to skyrocket.
  • 00:11:18.436 --> 00:11:20.271
  • And what you pay on your mortgages and your car loans
  • 00:11:20.271 --> 00:11:22.340
  • And your credit cards are going to go up as well.
  • 00:11:22.340 --> 00:11:24.675
  • There's no escaping that.
  • 00:11:24.675 --> 00:11:25.777
  • So, i, there's no reason not to wish kevin walsh
  • 00:11:25.777 --> 00:11:29.147
  • Nothing but the best.
  • 00:11:29.147 --> 00:11:30.348
  • He has promised to do business differently.
  • 00:11:30.348 --> 00:11:32.183
  • And i think we'll see that from the fed.
  • 00:11:32.183 --> 00:11:34.285
  • He's going to sort of, i think, communicate differently
  • 00:11:34.285 --> 00:11:37.789
  • Right now.
  • 00:11:37.789 --> 00:11:38.856
  • The fed overwhelms us with economic projections
  • 00:11:38.856 --> 00:11:41.359
  • And guidance about maybe rate cuts next time, maybe not.
  • 00:11:41.359 --> 00:11:45.229
  • He's going to say less and act more.
  • 00:11:45.229 --> 00:11:47.431
  • And, i think it'll be interesting to watch.
  • 00:11:47.431 --> 00:11:50.034
  • One of the things
  • 00:11:50.468 --> 00:11:51.302
  • The trump administration has touted
  • 00:11:51.302 --> 00:11:53.037
  • As their new trump accounts,
  • 00:11:53.037 --> 00:11:54.605
  • That allows for the head start for our children,
  • 00:11:54.605 --> 00:11:56.641
  • Maybe to imagine that they could
  • 00:11:56.641 --> 00:11:58.409
  • Begin to accumulate some wealth earlier in their life.
  • 00:11:58.409 --> 00:12:01.012
  • Do you see that as a significant contribution,
  • 00:12:01.012 --> 00:12:03.748
  • Or is that more political dialog?
  • 00:12:03.748 --> 00:12:06.684
  • It could be a significant contribution.
  • 00:12:06.684 --> 00:12:08.586
  • We'll see how many people take up the trump accounts.
  • 00:12:08.586 --> 00:12:11.923
  • They are, at the outset, essentially, custodial accounts.
  • 00:12:11.923 --> 00:12:15.927
  • Parents have them on behalf of their children.
  • 00:12:15.927 --> 00:12:18.329
  • The real issue becomes when those children turn 18,
  • 00:12:18.329 --> 00:12:20.932
  • Do they continue to use them to build a retirement
  • 00:12:20.932 --> 00:12:24.035
  • Savings, of a substantial magnitude?
  • 00:12:24.035 --> 00:12:27.405
  • I hope so.
  • 00:12:27.405 --> 00:12:29.040
  • For decades, the us has had a reputation
  • 00:12:29.040 --> 00:12:31.709
  • As an economy that doesn't save enough.
  • 00:12:31.709 --> 00:12:33.578
  • And, a lot of our,
  • 00:12:33.578 --> 00:12:36.047
  • International trade woes come from the fact
  • 00:12:36.047 --> 00:12:37.949
  • That we have to have money
  • 00:12:37.949 --> 00:12:39.350
  • Come in from overseas to finance things.
  • 00:12:39.350 --> 00:12:41.719
  • A lot of people's concerns about social security
  • 00:12:41.719 --> 00:12:43.955
  • And other issues come from
  • 00:12:43.955 --> 00:12:45.756
  • The fact that they don't really have a big cushion.
  • 00:12:45.756 --> 00:12:48.359
  • Building that cushion is,
  • 00:12:48.359 --> 00:12:49.293
  • Is the first thing that that someone can do
  • 00:12:49.293 --> 00:12:51.195
  • To prepare themselves for the future.
  • 00:12:51.195 --> 00:12:53.764
  • You know,
  • 00:12:53.764 --> 00:12:54.665
  • It seems to me that one of the strengths
  • 00:12:54.665 --> 00:12:55.633
  • Of america's economy over time through history
  • 00:12:55.633 --> 00:12:58.169
  • Has been the productivity
  • 00:12:58.169 --> 00:12:59.437
  • Of the american worker, our commitment to effort,
  • 00:12:59.437 --> 00:13:02.707
  • Some of those values seem to have slipped a bit.
  • 00:13:02.707 --> 00:13:05.176
  • Is that my imagination,
  • 00:13:05.176 --> 00:13:07.111
  • Or do we have to kind of reimagine
  • 00:13:07.111 --> 00:13:08.713
  • Our way of engaging with work
  • 00:13:08.713 --> 00:13:10.248
  • In order to get to a better place?
  • 00:13:10.248 --> 00:13:12.183
  • I don't think it's your imagination.
  • 00:13:12.950 --> 00:13:14.385
  • I think you're an astute observer.
  • 00:13:14.385 --> 00:13:15.820
  • And, you know,
  • 00:13:15.820 --> 00:13:17.021
  • Some of the so-called inputs to things have dropped off.
  • 00:13:17.021 --> 00:13:21.359
  • Among the large developed economies,
  • 00:13:21.359 --> 00:13:24.061
  • We have the lowest rate of labor force participation among,
  • 00:13:24.061 --> 00:13:27.231
  • Prime age males.
  • 00:13:27.632 --> 00:13:29.100
  • Why is it they're not looking for work?
  • 00:13:29.100 --> 00:13:30.735
  • That's a concern for me.
  • 00:13:30.735 --> 00:13:32.770
  • And the, the outcomes are not what they used to be.
  • 00:13:32.770 --> 00:13:36.274
  • Income per capita in the united states is growing,
  • 00:13:36.274 --> 00:13:38.809
  • A percentage point slower than it did in the 20th century.
  • 00:13:38.809 --> 00:13:41.312
  • For example, from 1960 to 2000,
  • 00:13:41.312 --> 00:13:43.547
  • If we'd kept up the previous pace of growth.
  • 00:13:43.547 --> 00:13:45.716
  • Everyone in america, man, woman and child
  • 00:13:45.716 --> 00:13:47.551
  • Would have 25,000 more dollars per year on average.
  • 00:13:47.551 --> 00:13:50.821
  • I mean, that's a lot of money i'd like my 25.
  • 00:13:50.821 --> 00:13:53.324
  • I don't know about you.
  • 00:13:53.324 --> 00:13:54.692
  • So let's let's get the, the same values back.
  • 00:13:54.692 --> 00:13:58.029
  • Let's get the headwinds
  • 00:13:58.029 --> 00:13:59.730
  • To growth, like the deficit out of the way.
  • 00:13:59.730 --> 00:14:02.133
  • And then america takes care of itself.
  • 00:14:02.133 --> 00:14:04.001
  • And it's always been able to do that.
  • 00:14:04.001 --> 00:14:06.337
  • It seems to me
  • 00:14:06.337 --> 00:14:07.238
  • If we'd focus more on our productivity
  • 00:14:07.238 --> 00:14:09.006
  • Than our work life balance,
  • 00:14:09.006 --> 00:14:10.675
  • We would find ourselves at a better place.
  • 00:14:10.675 --> 00:14:13.110
  • I think that,
  • 00:14:13.110 --> 00:14:15.413
  • You know, people always in
  • 00:14:15.980 --> 00:14:18.015
  • This conversation portray work as the bad news works.
  • 00:14:18.015 --> 00:14:21.652
  • Not that news.
  • 00:14:21.652 --> 00:14:22.787
  • Work is a great sense of fulfillment.
  • 00:14:22.787 --> 00:14:25.189
  • Gives people
  • 00:14:25.189 --> 00:14:26.424
  • A sense of purpose, makes them feel better about themselves.
  • 00:14:26.424 --> 00:14:28.993
  • And it's the dividing line between,
  • 00:14:29.760 --> 00:14:31.629
  • Being poor and not poor in america.
  • 00:14:31.629 --> 00:14:32.863
  • People who work are far less likely to be poor.
  • 00:14:32.863 --> 00:14:36.367
  • If you're not working, then.
  • 00:14:36.367 --> 00:14:37.501
  • Then you face a lot of problems.
  • 00:14:37.501 --> 00:14:39.603
  • Well, doug, we need to take a short break.
  • 00:14:39.603 --> 00:14:41.005
  • And you stand by for another segment.
  • 00:14:41.005 --> 00:14:43.040
  • Sure can.
  • 00:14:43.040 --> 00:14:44.275
  • If you're watching, you have to have your phone in your hand.
  • 00:14:44.275 --> 00:14:46.310
  • Try logging on to ag now.com.
  • 00:14:46.310 --> 00:14:48.346
  • You can send me an email with your thoughts on this topic.
  • 00:14:48.346 --> 00:14:50.982
  • I'll be right back.
  • 00:14:50.982 --> 00:14:58.004
  • I'll be right back.
  • 00:14:58.004 --> 00:15:03.160
  • We're back now with the president
  • 00:15:03.861 --> 00:15:05.329
  • Of the american action forum, doug holtz-eakin.
  • 00:15:05.329 --> 00:15:09.100
  • Let's shift the conversation to eye for a moment.
  • 00:15:09.100 --> 00:15:12.103
  • Senator warren
  • 00:15:12.103 --> 00:15:13.304
  • Has recently written an op ed that ran in time magazine.
  • 00:15:13.304 --> 00:15:15.973
  • She was proposing hefty taxes on the i industry
  • 00:15:15.973 --> 00:15:19.610
  • In an effort to fund health care and education.
  • 00:15:19.610 --> 00:15:22.913
  • It seems to me the politicians never seem
  • 00:15:22.913 --> 00:15:24.949
  • To stop trying to find ways to raise more money,
  • 00:15:24.949 --> 00:15:28.019
  • As opposed to cut spending is that ever going to change?
  • 00:15:28.019 --> 00:15:32.289
  • I think it has to change.
  • 00:15:32.857 --> 00:15:35.459
  • The reality is that, you know, as i've mentioned
  • 00:15:35.459 --> 00:15:38.195
  • Before, we have enormous budget deficits
  • 00:15:38.195 --> 00:15:40.698
  • And the spending is growing more rapidly than the revenues.
  • 00:15:40.698 --> 00:15:45.202
  • And until you get the the spending growth
  • 00:15:45.202 --> 00:15:47.138
  • Rates to slow down,
  • 00:15:47.138 --> 00:15:48.406
  • You can raise taxes, but they'll still grow slower
  • 00:15:48.406 --> 00:15:50.741
  • Than the spending after you raise them
  • 00:15:50.741 --> 00:15:52.109
  • And you lose the race again.
  • 00:15:52.109 --> 00:15:53.778
  • Right now, there's a race between
  • 00:15:53.778 --> 00:15:55.513
  • Spending and revenues, and spending will always win.
  • 00:15:55.513 --> 00:15:57.782
  • It's stacked that way.
  • 00:15:57.782 --> 00:15:59.383
  • We've got to change it
  • 00:15:59.383 --> 00:16:00.418
  • Or we'll never deal with the fiscal problems.
  • 00:16:00.418 --> 00:16:03.187
  • Let's stay with the subject of ai for just a moment.
  • 00:16:03.187 --> 00:16:05.689
  • How does this new technology stand
  • 00:16:05.689 --> 00:16:07.458
  • To impact our economy for good or bad?
  • 00:16:07.458 --> 00:16:10.528
  • It's going to impact our economy dramatically.
  • 00:16:11.462 --> 00:16:14.899
  • There's no question about that.
  • 00:16:14.899 --> 00:16:16.600
  • A lot of the focus is on jobs. how many jobs will replace.
  • 00:16:16.600 --> 00:16:19.203
  • I think that's a mistake in focus.
  • 00:16:19.203 --> 00:16:22.106
  • Ai is going to change every job.
  • 00:16:22.740 --> 00:16:24.675
  • And in the process, it will make americans
  • 00:16:24.675 --> 00:16:27.545
  • More productive and will benefit from that higher productivity.
  • 00:16:27.545 --> 00:16:30.314
  • That's always been important in raising the standard of living.
  • 00:16:30.314 --> 00:16:33.451
  • There will be some jobs that that we, that we see
  • 00:16:33.451 --> 00:16:36.120
  • Get outsourced.
  • 00:16:36.120 --> 00:16:37.254
  • They're not going to be needed anymore.
  • 00:16:37.254 --> 00:16:38.856
  • And because they're the key will be to make sure
  • 00:16:38.856 --> 00:16:40.458
  • That we've done what we always do,
  • 00:16:40.458 --> 00:16:42.126
  • Which is take those things that are no longer,
  • 00:16:42.126 --> 00:16:44.995
  • The important items, like buggies
  • 00:16:44.995 --> 00:16:46.730
  • That became unimportant and move people into professions
  • 00:16:46.730 --> 00:16:49.567
  • That have some real prospects and give them a real paycheck.
  • 00:16:49.567 --> 00:16:53.104
  • So it'll be a challenge, i think.
  • 00:16:53.104 --> 00:16:54.839
  • There's no question about that.
  • 00:16:54.839 --> 00:16:55.773
  • But it's a great opportunity as well.
  • 00:16:55.773 --> 00:16:57.775
  • You know,
  • 00:16:57.775 --> 00:16:58.776
  • I'm old enough to remember when the internet
  • 00:16:58.776 --> 00:16:59.810
  • Was coming online and some of the predictions
  • 00:16:59.810 --> 00:17:01.745
  • About what it would and wouldn't do,
  • 00:17:01.745 --> 00:17:03.147
  • And frankly, most of them were inaccurate.
  • 00:17:03.147 --> 00:17:05.583
  • So i feel that kind of way about ai.
  • 00:17:05.583 --> 00:17:07.184
  • It's going to be more about our character
  • 00:17:07.184 --> 00:17:09.120
  • And how our character helps us shape that technology for
  • 00:17:09.120 --> 00:17:11.889
  • Good or evil.
  • 00:17:11.889 --> 00:17:12.756
  • It is absolutely about character.
  • 00:17:13.524 --> 00:17:15.759
  • There's a big, you know, tussle about regulating ai.
  • 00:17:15.759 --> 00:17:18.863
  • A lot of ai is just tools.
  • 00:17:19.430 --> 00:17:21.265
  • If you use
  • 00:17:21.265 --> 00:17:22.500
  • Ai to decide whether to pay a health insurance claim or not.
  • 00:17:22.500 --> 00:17:25.236
  • It doesn't matter if it was ai or human.
  • 00:17:25.236 --> 00:17:27.138
  • What matters is whether you pay the right claims.
  • 00:17:27.138 --> 00:17:29.507
  • And we judged firms by whether they do that.
  • 00:17:29.507 --> 00:17:31.909
  • So that doesn't change any of that.
  • 00:17:31.909 --> 00:17:34.612
  • Then for the tough calls, it's the ethical use of ai
  • 00:17:34.612 --> 00:17:37.348
  • That we have to be cognizant of.
  • 00:17:37.348 --> 00:17:39.116
  • And making sure that people use ai ethically
  • 00:17:39.116 --> 00:17:42.019
  • Is more important than what ai is.
  • 00:17:42.019 --> 00:17:43.454
  • It's a human creation and a human will run it.
  • 00:17:43.454 --> 00:17:46.590
  • And so we need to be cognizant of that and
  • 00:17:46.590 --> 00:17:49.026
  • Pay attention to our ethics.
  • 00:17:49.026 --> 00:17:50.694
  • Well, iran continues to dominate the news cycle,
  • 00:17:51.695 --> 00:17:54.198
  • And it seems we're always moments away from a cease fire.
  • 00:17:54.198 --> 00:17:57.902
  • And yet the turmoil continues on.
  • 00:17:57.902 --> 00:18:01.172
  • What are the real world impacts
  • 00:18:01.172 --> 00:18:02.806
  • To our economy from that conflict in iran?
  • 00:18:02.806 --> 00:18:05.109
  • I know the strait of hormuz is part of that.
  • 00:18:05.109 --> 00:18:07.511
  • But can you help us a little bit with the bigger picture?
  • 00:18:07.511 --> 00:18:10.114
  • The strait of hormuz is part of that.
  • 00:18:10.114 --> 00:18:11.749
  • But, lingering, past
  • 00:18:11.749 --> 00:18:14.818
  • That is just a lot of uncertainty about,
  • 00:18:14.818 --> 00:18:17.988
  • The state of international relations.
  • 00:18:17.988 --> 00:18:19.523
  • And for the business community, that means, you know,
  • 00:18:19.523 --> 00:18:22.626
  • Where do i get my supplies from?
  • 00:18:22.626 --> 00:18:24.228
  • What do i do in the u.s.?
  • 00:18:24.228 --> 00:18:25.329
  • What do i you know, i have export, customers.
  • 00:18:25.329 --> 00:18:27.731
  • Am i going to be able to use the supply chains that i used to
  • 00:18:27.731 --> 00:18:30.601
  • Sort of freezes all that decision making?
  • 00:18:30.601 --> 00:18:32.369
  • And that's that's not great.
  • 00:18:32.369 --> 00:18:34.205
  • And as this sort of draws out, it's expensive.
  • 00:18:34.205 --> 00:18:37.308
  • It's we've spent,
  • 00:18:37.308 --> 00:18:38.409
  • Something like $70 million total on this,
  • 00:18:38.409 --> 00:18:41.845
  • And we're going to have to
  • 00:18:41.845 --> 00:18:43.347
  • Replace all the munitions that have been used.
  • 00:18:43.347 --> 00:18:45.282
  • And that means more spending.
  • 00:18:45.282 --> 00:18:47.117
  • And, you know, we've not seen congress
  • 00:18:47.117 --> 00:18:48.886
  • Willing to cut somewhere else.
  • 00:18:48.886 --> 00:18:50.254
  • So that's more stress on the budget,
  • 00:18:50.254 --> 00:18:52.256
  • Which leads to more stress on interest rates.
  • 00:18:52.256 --> 00:18:54.425
  • You start getting stress on interest rates.
  • 00:18:54.425 --> 00:18:56.160
  • That's happening everywhere in the economy.
  • 00:18:56.160 --> 00:18:57.528
  • There's no way around that.
  • 00:18:57.528 --> 00:18:59.063
  • What about
  • 00:18:59.063 --> 00:18:59.897
  • I know there's been a reduction of oil
  • 00:18:59.897 --> 00:19:00.998
  • That's available for china from iran and venezuela.
  • 00:19:00.998 --> 00:19:03.968
  • So there's some sense that it's
  • 00:19:03.968 --> 00:19:05.302
  • Maybe a shift in the balance of power rebalancing trade.
  • 00:19:05.302 --> 00:19:08.806
  • So going to work in our favor over time.
  • 00:19:08.806 --> 00:19:11.642
  • One of the things we've learned
  • 00:19:12.276 --> 00:19:13.244
  • Is that, you know, this isn't, 2008 anymore.
  • 00:19:13.244 --> 00:19:16.380
  • And, the u.s.
  • 00:19:16.380 --> 00:19:17.982
  • Is the world's largest exporter of natural gas.
  • 00:19:17.982 --> 00:19:20.217
  • It's the largest producer and a major exporter of oil.
  • 00:19:20.217 --> 00:19:24.154
  • And these oil price shocks
  • 00:19:24.154 --> 00:19:25.256
  • Don't have the same impact that they used to
  • 00:19:25.256 --> 00:19:27.391
  • That that moves in the us favor.
  • 00:19:27.391 --> 00:19:29.360
  • We are the
  • 00:19:29.360 --> 00:19:30.294
  • The future of these energy supplies,
  • 00:19:30.294 --> 00:19:32.263
  • And they can't really be used to hold us hostage.
  • 00:19:32.263 --> 00:19:35.232
  • It can affect the globe, and they can affect,
  • 00:19:35.232 --> 00:19:37.201
  • The pace of economic growth.
  • 00:19:37.201 --> 00:19:38.669
  • But the balance of power has already shifted.
  • 00:19:38.669 --> 00:19:40.537
  • And it's because of the production expansion
  • 00:19:40.537 --> 00:19:42.740
  • We've done over the past two decades.
  • 00:19:42.740 --> 00:19:45.109
  • One last question.
  • 00:19:45.109 --> 00:19:46.310
  • I know it's an election cycle.
  • 00:19:46.310 --> 00:19:47.578
  • And so there's a lot of polarization.
  • 00:19:47.578 --> 00:19:49.780
  • Are you an optimist or a pessimist?
  • 00:19:49.780 --> 00:19:51.348
  • When you look at the economy and our future?
  • 00:19:51.348 --> 00:19:53.317
  • Oh, i'm an optimist.
  • 00:19:53.784 --> 00:19:55.686
  • You know, the, the, the power of the american people
  • 00:19:55.686 --> 00:19:59.023
  • To be productive, innovative and to succeed is unbounded.
  • 00:19:59.023 --> 00:20:02.926
  • And all they need is the willingness
  • 00:20:02.926 --> 00:20:06.063
  • Of the government to give them the freedom necessary to do it.
  • 00:20:06.063 --> 00:20:09.066
  • And, we've always had a government
  • 00:20:09.066 --> 00:20:10.801
  • That was wise enough to to keep, relatively small and contained
  • 00:20:10.801 --> 00:20:15.239
  • That to make sure that continues to be true.
  • 00:20:15.239 --> 00:20:16.640
  • And we'll be fine.
  • 00:20:16.640 --> 00:20:18.509
  • Doug, i thank you for your time today.
  • 00:20:18.509 --> 00:20:20.077
  • We appreciate your thoughtful insight.
  • 00:20:20.077 --> 00:20:22.346
  • Thank you.
  • 00:20:22.346 --> 00:20:22.913
  • Thanks for having me.
  • 00:20:22.913 --> 00:20:24.048
  • In a moment, we'll look at some of your emails.
  • 00:20:24.048 --> 00:20:26.150
  • We'll be right back.
  • 00:20:26.150 --> 00:20:33.005
  • We'll be right back.
  • 00:20:33.005 --> 00:20:37.762
  • Thank you for taking the time to send us your thoughts.
  • 00:20:38.897 --> 00:20:41.933
  • Your emails and opinions are always a highlight.
  • 00:20:41.933 --> 00:20:44.669
  • Paul from maryland wrote, isn't it time to point out
  • 00:20:44.669 --> 00:20:48.039
  • The undeniable fact
  • 00:20:48.039 --> 00:20:49.140
  • That the 90 pounds of uranium in iran
  • 00:20:49.140 --> 00:20:51.609
  • That threatened
  • 00:20:51.609 --> 00:20:52.744
  • The entire western world, including every american,
  • 00:20:52.744 --> 00:20:55.280
  • Was funded by the obama
  • 00:20:55.280 --> 00:20:58.049
  • And more recently, the biden administration.
  • 00:20:58.049 --> 00:21:00.118
  • How in the world is that not the buzz?
  • 00:21:00.118 --> 00:21:02.887
  • Well, paul,
  • 00:21:02.887 --> 00:21:04.089
  • It's an interesting observation, but i heard a conversation
  • 00:21:04.089 --> 00:21:05.523
  • In the last day or two that fascinated me.
  • 00:21:05.523 --> 00:21:07.926
  • It was an obama acolyte in the media cycle comparing
  • 00:21:07.926 --> 00:21:12.731
  • The obama iran deal with what trump is accomplishing.
  • 00:21:12.731 --> 00:21:17.502
  • And they were trying to say that they were very much parallel.
  • 00:21:17.502 --> 00:21:20.939
  • I never thought i would hear the obama camp obama
  • 00:21:20.939 --> 00:21:24.175
  • Trying to allied themselves with trump's foreign policy.
  • 00:21:24.175 --> 00:21:27.479
  • There must be the imagination that trump is succeeding,
  • 00:21:27.479 --> 00:21:29.647
  • Or that group wouldn't be trying to stay on those coattails.
  • 00:21:29.647 --> 00:21:33.785
  • Fascinating.
  • 00:21:34.119 --> 00:21:35.086
  • God has to be moving in the earth.
  • 00:21:35.086 --> 00:21:37.489
  • Harland, from michigan wrote.
  • 00:21:37.489 --> 00:21:39.357
  • Why is the end of life so ugly?
  • 00:21:39.357 --> 00:21:41.993
  • Pain, physical disabilities, mental decline, anxiety
  • 00:21:41.993 --> 00:21:45.330
  • And depression?
  • 00:21:45.330 --> 00:21:46.631
  • It's a good question, harland.
  • 00:21:46.631 --> 00:21:48.400
  • You know, the end of life is a transition,
  • 00:21:48.400 --> 00:21:50.735
  • And all transitions are difficult.
  • 00:21:50.735 --> 00:21:52.604
  • They're never easy.
  • 00:21:52.604 --> 00:21:54.072
  • It doesn't matter what the transition is.
  • 00:21:54.072 --> 00:21:56.541
  • For the christ follower, the end of life is an upgrade.
  • 00:21:56.541 --> 00:21:59.911
  • So it may be a difficult season and we recognize some decline
  • 00:21:59.911 --> 00:22:03.248
  • As we age.
  • 00:22:03.248 --> 00:22:04.349
  • But there is something that awaits us that far exceeds
  • 00:22:04.349 --> 00:22:08.086
  • The pain of the deterioration of this temporary life
  • 00:22:08.086 --> 00:22:11.623
  • Suit that we inhabit.
  • 00:22:11.623 --> 00:22:13.725
  • It's the reason we choose jesus as lord and serve him
  • 00:22:13.725 --> 00:22:16.895
  • With enthusiasm.
  • 00:22:16.895 --> 00:22:18.430
  • God's moving in the earth.
  • 00:22:18.430 --> 00:22:19.898
  • I hope you know him and i pray that you have a restful evening.
  • 00:22:19.898 --> 00:22:23.735
  • God bless you.
  • 00:22:23.735 --> 00:22:23.735